Off Leash Intel · loading
23 direct mentions across 23 briefings, with 31 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Washington sanctioned Kabila over support for Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and that President Félix Tshisekedi’s government welcomed the action. Kabila had not publicly responded.
Unverified development · updated through
Washington sanctioned Kabila over support for Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and that President Félix Tshisekedi’s government welcomed the action. Kabila had not publicly responded.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
M23 dossier
30 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Near Goma, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian personnel serving with the Southern African Development Community force fighting M23. It places the attack at the camp where two South African troops were killed in February.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 1 May MALI •Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) called on "all sincere patriots, without exception" to join its efforts to overthrow Mali's military government under Col. Assimi Goita. •JNIM and its allies have imposed a blockade of Bamako, and residents of the capital are already feeling the squeeze. Food prices rose 45% in the past few days as militant checkpoints restricted 70% of commercial transit routes into the city. •Goita's government will struggle to weather the storm, and the odds of a fresh coup are high and rising. UKRAINE •After much Ukrainian lobbying, Israel refused to unload a vessel carrying grain that Kyiv claims Russia stole from occupied Ukrainian territories. •The Panama-flagged Panormitis is reportedly now seeking another buyer for its cargo, but Ukraine will make that difficult. •Kyiv is on a mission to target Russia's "shadow grain fleet," which it claims has exported 850,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain on 50 different voyages between January and April. DRC •The U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on former Congolese President Joseph Kabila for his alleged support of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels stoking conflict in eastern DRC. •Pres. Tshisekedi's government in Kinshasa - which sentenced Kabila to death in absentia in a military trial last year - welcomed the move. •Kabila hasn't publically commented yet, but will probably accuse Washington of helping Tshisekedi carry out a vendetta against a political rival. • He should return all the DRC resources he stole while President and he wouldn't have to worry so much about the justice that will visit him. MYANMAR •Myanmar's military government said it had moved Aung San Suu Kyi - the civilian leader it ousted in 2021 - from prison to house arrest in a performative gesture of amnesty aimed at bolstering the repressive junta's global legitimacy. •The junta said it had also generously shortened her sentence by 4.5 years, meaning the now-80 year old will be freed when she's 99 instead of 102 (assuming she lives that long and they don't slap new charges on her). •Emerging reports suggest Aung San Suu Kyi has actually been under house arrest for around 18 months already, but the junta waited until China's foreign minister intervened to announce the move and claim credit for its "benevolence." •It has been less benevolent towards the other 22,000 political prisoners that rights groups think it holds. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a public sector minimum wage hike of 26% to $240 per month and a pension raise to $70 per month, which she said was still "not enough." •It's not clear how her government will pay the higher rates. It has struggled to pay the previous, much-lower rates in recent months, and the shortfall is what triggered the protests that forced her to promise higher wages and pensions.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Wednesday is April Fools' Day and - perhaps relatedly - Edible Book Day. •It's also the 50th anniversary of Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak founding Apple Computers. •This is Holy Week for western Christians. Friday is Good Friday (U.S. and EU markets are closed), followed by Easter on Sunday. EU markets are also closed for Easter Monday next week. •OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - meet Sunday to set output targets for May. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,296/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,471 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,195/ton •Ethereum: $2,065 •Gold: $4,542/toz •Lead: $1,897/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $100.92/barrel •Zinc: $3,115/ton IRAN •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he was "hopeful" that negotiations will start this week, and Pakistan said it's preparing to host peace talks. •But while Trump hints at ongoing contact with Iran's "much more reasonable" new leaders, he's simultaneously fueling rumors that he'll abandon talks and "take the oil in Iran" - perhaps by seizing its Kharg Island fuel hub. •Having twice been bombed between rounds of ongoing negotiations, Iran is wary. Its parliament speaker accused the U.S. of "secretly planning a ground invasion" and warned that U.S. troops on the ground inside Iran will be "set on fire." •Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insists were civilian infrastructure. Araghchi threatened to "exact a heavy price" in retaliation, and Iran later struck a chemical plant in southern Israel. •The war is unpopular in the U.S., where an Economist / YouGov poll found only 36% of respondents approve of how Trump is pursuing it. YEMEN •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago. •Israel easily intercepted the incoming Houthi missile, and analysts seem unconcerned that the Houthi's entry into the war will shift its course. That's partly because the Houthis' firepower comes from Iran, and Iran can't afford to divert part of its depleting arsenal just so the Houthis can fire at the same enemy from a different angle. •The Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025. One Chatham House analyst surmised that they hope that Saudi Arabia will reward their restraint with cash. But others suggest the rebels are growing frustrated that Saudi aid hasn't materialized and may abandon their restraint. DRC •Ex-Congolese President Joseph Kabila gave his first major interview in eight years to the NYT. •In the extensive conversation, he hinted that he helped rig the 2018 election to fulfil a power-sharing "agreement" he had struck with his successor, Felix Tshisekedi, with whom he has since spectacularly fallen out. •Kabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict. •For its part, Tshisekedi's government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the east and has convicted him of treason and sentenced him to death in a trial that Human Rights Watch called "blatantly unfair." •Kabila is now back in DRC, in M23-controlled Goma. When the NYT asked him if he wanted to rule DRC again, he ominously demurred.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 March IRAN •A U.S. Navy submarine sank Iran's IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka yesterday, marking the first time since 1982 (Argentine Cruiser Belgrano) that a sub-fired torpedo sunk an enemy ship. Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian sailors and recovered 87 bodies from the IRIS Dena, which SecDef Hegseth called Iran's "prize warship." Another 60 who were aboard the frigate are still missing. •Iran vowed retaliation, and state media claimed that its navy carried out that threat this morning when it hit a U.S. tanker in the northern Persian Gulf with a missile, causing a fire and an oil spill. That report remains unconfirmed. •Pres. Trump floated the idea of providing affordable insurance for shipping lines transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to reopen oil supply chains. One-third of seaborne crude and one-fifth of global gas pass through the Strait daily. Several marine insurers are reportedly in talks with the White House about possible facilities. •In another indication that the war is far from over, there are few signs of the defections within the regime or the popular movements organizing to overthrow it that Israel hoped would materialize once its airstrikes delivered the first blows. •Instead, U.S.-allied Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a possible ground incursion into the north - perhaps in coordination with Israel's Mossad and the U.S. CIA. •Analysts suggest that the new front could distract and draw out some Iranian forces, but doubt it could topple the regime. Iran preemptively targeted the Kurdish force's headquarters in northern Iraq. UKRAINE •Russia blamed Ukraine for sinking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker carrying about 61,000 tons of LNG in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday. •The Kremlin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched "uncrewed sea drones" from the Libyan coast at the Arctic Metagaz tanker, which appears to have been part of its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil. •Meanwhile, Pres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere. CHINA •China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth. •Citing an analyst, the NYT noted that "the lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes." DRC •Congolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children. •The M23 - which controls Rubaya - disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings" - not a landslide - that caused the mine to collapse, and claiming that "simply about five" people died - not 200. •[Notably, the M23 didn't dispute that a landslide was the cause of a nearly-identical disaster in late January that killed roughly the same number as the government says died this time.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Dec VENEZUELA •Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado was expected to accept her award in person in Norway yesterday, but she never showed up. •A Nobel official told media that Machado was "unfortunately not in Norway." That would seem to suggest she's still in Venezuela, since the hardest part of her trip would've been escaping the authoritarian regime that has banned her from traveling abroad for the past 10 years. •Separately, two U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday, marking the closest that U.S. military aircraft have come to Venezuelan airspace since Operation Southern Sentinel began in September. •A U.S. military official said the flights were not intended to be provocative, but Nicolas Maduro's government will surely feel threatened by the proximity of U.S. jets to Venezuela's richest oil regions. DRC •Rwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira, which is the last major city in eastern DRC that's still under Kinshasa's control. •Around 200,000 civilians have already fled the latest round of fighting - most of which has taken place after DRC and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire at the White House. •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi explicitly blamed his Rwandan counterpart, Pres. Kagame, for the ongoing conflict: "This is a proxy war aimed at challenging our sovereignty over a highly strategic area, rich in critical minerals and economic potential that is crucial to the future of our nation." •Rwanda counter-accused DRC and Burundi of violating the truce, too, but DRC and Burundi are not sending troops SAM systems, laser guided anti tank weapons, EW jamming systems and armed drones into Rwanda like Rwanda is into DRC. •Separately, Glencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework. •Glencore has only exported a small test batch of cobalt and is still sitting on a massive stockpile of cobalt that it mined as a byproduct of copper extraction during the export ban and as it deciphered the new, post-ban rules. •Its cautious small test shipment - and the fact that other miners continue to stockpile instead of even testing exporting - suggests the new rules remain opaque and hard to comply with. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thai and Cambodian troops continued to clash along their shared border, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing to shelters they hadn't bothered to deconstruct after the last bout of skirmishes subsided in July (which perhaps offers some insight into the low confidence the local population placed in that truce's staying power). •Both sides continue to blame the other and insist they're only acting in self defense against the other's aggressions. •So far, the casualty count has remained fairly low compared to the escalating rhetoric: Cambodia says intruding Thai soldiers have killed just six civilians this week. •Pres. Trump - who was present when Thailand and Cambodia formalized their truce in October - said he'd "have to make a phone call" today to try to revive the ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China who will use them to develop artificial intelligence models. •The H200 is a generation behind Nvidia's latest chips, which is probably part of why Trump felt comfortable sharing it with China. (China hawks have successfully lobbied to bar Chinese companies from using the latest U.S. chip tech.) •Another factor behind Trump's decision could be the 25% royalty the U.S. government will reportedly collect on H200 sales to Chinese customers. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 DEC GAZA •Former senior Shin Bet official Shalom Ben Hanan told the NYT that Hamas is "still standing" despite its two-year war with Israel. •Ben Hanan cited official estimates that Hamas still has around 20,000 active fighters after quickly replacing its casualties. •Hamas also appears to be reasserting its role in policing Gaza - though its senior officials insist they'll be willing and ready to cede power to an appointed transitional government once one is formed. DRC •Just days after signing a document in the White House Oval Office reaffirming a U.S.-brokered peace deal with the DRC, Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's proxy M23 invaded further into DRC territory in direct defiance of President Trump's peace efforts. •Local reports suggest the M23 is bringing in reinforcements from Rwanda, and leveraged the added troop strength to capture the village of Luvungi near the Burundian border. •Analysts also spotted signs that the rebels used freshly-supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones, and jammers. •Burundi - which is receiving thousands of fleeing civilians – echoed these reports and blamed Rwanda for the chaos. Its Foreign Minister accused Kigali of "playing a double game. It claims to be negotiating and signing agreements, but in the meantime, it is intensifying attacks on the civilian population with kamikaze drones that kill instinctively.” YEMEN •The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist coalition announced that it had captured not only Hadramout, but all eight of Yemen's southern governates - including the port of Aden. •The STC's claim is credible but unconfirmed, and Saudi Arabia may still mount some resistance in defense of the government it was backing in Aden. •STC control of the south would mark a major change in the course of Yemen's long-running civil war. It would also increase the likelihood of Yemen ultimately re-fracturing into the two countries that comprised it before unification.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday. DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict. CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday. DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict. CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 October RUSSIA •The Kremlin warned European leaders against approving a proposal to essentially advance Ukraine €140 billion ($156 billion) in future reparations funding backed by frozen Russian assets. •The EU plan would package that funding as an interest-free loan to avoid the complexities of seizing Russian assets outright, but the Kremlin now says it would consider such crafty financial engineering the same thing as a seizure anyway, and would retaliate by seizing an equivalent value of frozen European assets in Russia. •Separately, French authorities seized a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker off France's western coast and detained two of its crew over the tanker's suspected ties to recent drone flights over European countries. That lends credence to Ukrainian President Zelensky's assertion that the trespassing drones are being launched from Russia's "shadow fleet." •Indeed, the seized tanker, the Borocay, was sailing near the Danish coast last week when unidentified drones - likely launched from it - menaced Denmark's skies and forced its main airport to temporarily close. DRC •Some Congo watchers - especially those aligned with former president Joseph Kabila - expressed concern that the death sentence a military court handed Kabila on Tuesday will derail the bumbling and half-hearted peace process that DRC and the M23 / Rwanda entered into over the summer. •Kabila's sympathizers are probably correct that his conviction and sentence were politically motivated, and the conviction is certainly not going to encourage Kabila to help end the conflict in the east. But the death sentence is unlikely to ever be carried out, and the peace process is already so broken that a vindictive verdict against Kabila is unlikely to do much further damage. AFGHANISTAN •Internet service returned to Afghanistan after a two-day outage that media reports tied to a Taliban edict against "immorality." •A Taliban spokesman now says the government didn't intentionally cut off internet this time - unlike from 1996 to 2001 during their last turn in power, when they did ban internet use. •That may be a way to save face after Taliban leaders realized how much Afghanistan's economy and people now depend on the internet for basic and Taliban-tolerated (for men, at least) functions like trade, travel, and communications. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit starts Sunday. China's Pres. Xi, Russia's Pres. Putin, and India's Prime Minister Modi will all attend, but the meetings aren't expected to lead to groundbreaking new declarations or alliances. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,638/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,266 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,837/ton •Ethereum: $4,624 •Gold: $3,396/toz •Lead: $1,988/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.87/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.19/barrel •Zinc: $2,814/ton TRADE •Higher U.S. tariffs on India - which are, effectively, secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil - went into effect today. •Some feel India was unfairly singled out for an exceptionally high tariff rate of 50%, despite being largely aligned with U.S. geopolitical priorities and buying far less Russian oil than China, which is more of a geopolitical rival and yet enjoys a far lower tariff rate than 50% (for now). UKRAINE •Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Analysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. GAZA •Two Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday killed at least 20, including five journalists, and drew widespread condemnation - including from the UN, which said there "needs to be justice" for the strike. Israel said it was aiming for a "camera that was positioned by Hamas" at the hospital. SAHEL •Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, signed a cooperation agreement with the junta in Niger to explore the radical possibility of building Africa's first nuclear power plant in the Nigerien desert. •Niger's current fiscal and technological state renders the construction of a nuclear power plant there virtually impossible - even with Rosatom's strongest. The cooperation agreement is probably more of a symbol of a switch of loyalty from France - whose state-owned Orano mined Niger's uranium for over 50 years - to Russia. DRC •DRC and the M23 resumed mediated peace talks in Doha, despite the M23's continued attacks in eastern DRC. •Both sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now. NORTH KOREA •Following a meeting with South Korea's Pres. Lee Jae-myung, Pres. Trump said he hoped to meet Lee's northern rival, Kim Jong Un, "in the appropriate future." It would be the fourth meeting between Kim and Trump.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 August UKRAINE •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Pres. Putin in Moscow this week, and Pres. Trump said Witkoff made "great progress" nudging Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire deal he could agree to. •Next, Trump and Putin plan to meet in the coming days to continue where Witkoff left off. •Trilateral talks between Presidents Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could follow - though it's unclear whether either Putin or Zelensky has agreed to participate yet. DRC •UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk dashed hopes for the ceasefire DRC signed with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels on June 19 with a new report suggesting the M23 defied the truce and instead escalated its violence in North Kivu in July. The UN counted at least 319 civilian deaths from M23 massacres between July 9 and 21. •Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame are still due to meet in the coming months to agree on the details of their fraying truce. IRAN •Iran closed government offices in half its provinces yesterday to save water and electricity amidst an ongoing dual shortage exacerbated by five years of drought and soaring temperatures. •Tehran is particularly affected, with water pressure halved or worse in 80% of its households. Authorities are encouraging residents to wait out the latest heatwave elsewhere to prolong what little water remains in the reservoirs feeding the capital, but they fear taps could run dry within weeks. SUDAN •State media reported that Sudan's air force blew up an Emirati plane carrying 40 alleged Colombian mercenaries as it landed at Darfur's Nyala airport, which is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting the army. •Sudan (credibly) accuses the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons and mercenaries, and says Nyala airport is the main entry point for both. •Colombia's Pres. Petro seemed to acknowledge reports of Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF, but has made his distaste for it clear. After yesterday's report that Colombian fighters were aboard the Nyala-bound plane, Petro called for a ban on mercenary activity. GHANA •A helicopter crash killed Ghana's Ministers of Defense and Environment - as well as eight other officials - en route to a conference on illegal mining. There are no reports of foul play yet. TRADE •New U.S. tariffs on imports from around 90 countries came into effect at midnight this morning. •In addition, Pres. Trump threatened to impose a new, 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to the U.S. - but with a key loophole exempting companies that pledge new investment in the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 May GAZA •Al Jazeera reported that Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal suggested by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, but Witkoff quickly dashed hopes for a quick truce when he told Reuters that the proposal Hamas accepted was not his, but was instead a "disappointing and completely unacceptable" plan of Hamas's own creation. •An Israeli official corroborated Witkoff's disavowal of the proposal that Hamas accepted and said no Israeli government could accept its terms - which reportedly called for the release of 10 living Israeli hostages in two groups, in exchange for a 60- or 70-day ceasefire, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. •Witkoff's latest proposal - which is still on the table - reportedly differs from the one Hamas accepted on several key points, including the timing and sequence of hostage releases. NORTH KOREA •North Korea has arrested three shipyard officials over last week's botched destroyer launch, which left Kim Jong Un fuming and the 5,000-ton warship partially submerged sideways. •Western analysts studying the bungled launch attributed its failure to "pointed to a lack of experience, as well as political pressure from Mr. Kim for quick results." •In particular, the shipyard that constructed the ill-fated 470-foot (143-meter) vessel had no experience building ships that large, and was forced to launch this first attempt the risky way - sideways - because it doesn't have a big enough dry dock to launch by flotation or an incline wide enough for a stern-first launch. VENEZUELA •Guyana's vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, rejected propaganda videos his Venezuelan counterpart, Delcy Rodrigues, shared purporting to show Guyanese citizens boarding a boat to cross the Essequibo River to vote in Sunday's Venezuelan regional elections: "It is dishonest and a sign of desperation when the vice-president of Venezuela has to use a fake video to support false claims that people were crossing the border to vote in the elections." •The 125,000 Guyanese who live in Essequibo did not, in fact, cross the river to vote in Sunday's election. Rather, the 21,403 voters who chose representatives for the disputed region - which the newly elected officials cannot access and don't control - came from a specially-created sliver of Bolivar state on the Venezuelan side of the river. It's telling that all 14 representatives they choose came from Pres. Maduro's ruling party. DRC •Amnesty International accused the M23 - and, implicitly, the Rwandan army that controls it - of violating international humanitarian law by torturing, disappearing, and killing detainees in Goma and Bukavu. •Citing interviews with former detainees, Amnesty said the violations it documented "may amount to war crimes," and called on "regional and international actors [to] pressure Rwanda to cease its support for M23." •Meanwhile, M23 confirmed yesterday that former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has arrived in Goma. [Some suggest Kabila has been in Goma for weeks, but this is the first clear confirmation of his return.] •The confirmation of Kabila's return will unnerve Pres. Tshisekedi's government, which lifted Kabila's lifelong immunity last week and plans to prosecute him for backing Rwanda's invasion and (allegedly) encouraging a coup to topple Tshisekedi. CARS •A German court convicted four former Volkswagen executives of fraud for their roles in the Dieselgate scandal, in which over 11 million Volkswagen diesel cars were installed with "defeat devices" that helped them illegally cheat diesel-efficiency tests by reducing emissions by up to 40-fold when a car recognized it was being tested. •Though ignobly motivated, the scandal helped accelerate a shift from high-pollutin' diesel cars to electric vehicles. In Europe alone, diesel's market share went from over half in 2015 to under 10% today.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Qatar is set to mediate DRC-M23 peace talks starting tomorrow - if neither side walks away before then. •U.S. inflation data for March will be published on Thursday. Economists expect slow price growth for March, but anticipate a sharp rise in inflation this month once new tariffs are passed through to consumers. •Golf's Masters Tournament runs Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National. •U.S.-Iran talks will resume Saturday (see below for more). •Next weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday and Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday. •Beijing will host the world's first half marathon featuring humanoid robot runners - in addition to real humans - on Sunday. •Sunday is also the date of the annual University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge. To paraphrase a commentator for the 1949 race, I don't know who will win but it's either Oxford or Cambridge. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz - slightly off record highs of ~$3,120/toz •Lead: $1,870/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.64/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,614/ton IRAN •In an unexpected development, Pres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. •*Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators, with direct talks to follow if this round goes well. [Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out direct talks with the U.S. while Trump's "maximum pressure" policy is in place. ] •Trump threatened that Iran would be "in great danger" if the talks fail. They could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs. •Separately, The Washington Post reported that Iranian tried to hire a Georgian drug trafficker to assassinate Rabbi Shneor Segal, the Chief Rabbi of Baku's Ashkenazi community, in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani security services thwarted the hit in January. TRADE •Pres. Trump told reporters that his new reciprocal tariffs are simultaneously permanent and open to negotiation - "because there are things that we need beyond tariffs." •So far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. •The European Union (20%) is reportedly considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially, but the bloc has also offered to completely remove tariffs on some products if the U.S. does the same. Ultimately, European officials suggest they hope to find a compromise to revert to lower tariffs, but they've threatened to expand the range of goods subject to tariffs if compromise proves elusive. •Most countries targeted with new reciprocal tariffs have resisted retaliating and instead plan to either offer concessions or try to negotiate. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu rushed back to the White House for talks on both stalled hostage negotiations and tariff relief. Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Israel's trade surplus with the U.S. by buying more U.S. goods and asked Trump to lift the tariff he imposed on Israel (17%) in return. Trump demurred, citing the $4 billion in annual aid the U.S. gives Israel - "that's a lot." •The Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. •Vietnam (46%) reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is St. Patrick's Day, commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, the arrival of Christianity to Ireland, and – in the U.S. - beer ☘️ •March Madness starts this week and culminates in NCAA title games April 6 (women) and 7 (men). Last year was the first year the women's final drew more viewers than the men's game. •Both DRC and the M23 confirmed that their delegates are in Luanda for Angola-mediated peace talks due to start tomorrow...maybe (more on that below). •Thursday is the vernal equinox, which marks the start of spring in the northern hemisphere - and Nowruz, or new year, in Iran. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,682/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $36,170/ton •Copper: $9,781/ton •Gold: $2,997/toz [Gold prices surpassed $3,000/toz for the first time last week on higher demand due to expected rate cuts and concerns that tariffs will slow global growth] •Lead: $2,069/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.07/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,973/ton DRC •Angola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea. The M23 even accused DRC of escalating its airstrikes on Rwandan and M23 positions today. •Optimism for tomorrow's summit is low. •Separately, Rwanda and Belgium mutually severed diplomatic ties over Rwanda's role in the ongoing conflict (which Rwanda implausibly denies). UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO. GAZA •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for abruptly firing Shin Bet director Rohen Bar, who is reportedly investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for wrongdoing. Netanyahu's critics say he's seeking to expand his control within the government. YEMEN •Two weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses. •Iran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted. SERBIA •Over 100,000 Serbians - and perhaps far more - protested against Pres. Aleksandar Vucic on Saturday in what some described as the largest demonstrations in Serbia's history (Vucic described it as a "large protest with enormous negative energy toward the authorities.") •Demonstrators are frustrated with the lack of government accountability over a train station collapse last November. Vucic said his government "understood the message and we will have to change ourselves," but he hasn't proposed any meaningful changes since the protests began. •Media reports accused Belgrade police of using a banned "sonic weapon" to disperse protesters, but Vucic denied the allegations as "a vile lie," saying he'd heard the weapon's sound "abroad" and "that sound was not heard on the streets of Belgrade on Saturday night." VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump invoked part of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to deport 261 alleged gang members - including 238 from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and 23 from the multinational MS-13 gang - to El Salvador. A U.S. court order blocked some of the deportations, but only after they'd already taken place: El Salvador's Pres. Bukele tweeted, "Oopsie... Too late." EPIC!
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 March 2025 UKRAINE •Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia. •Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting. •Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire. •Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control. SYRIA •Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days. •The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths. GAZA •A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic. PAKISTAN •Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday. •The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap. •The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy. CHINA •Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024. •In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency. DRC •The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict. •Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week. GREENLAND •Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support. •The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island. VENEZUELA •U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 9Dec Coming Up This Week •Bitcoin MENA 2024 opens today in Abu Dhabi. The cryptocurrency conference will feature Pres.-elect Trump's son, Eric, as its keynote speaker. •The UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow. The previous round of talks in August resulted in a ceasefire deal that's largely holding up (albeit with occasional violations); this next round aims to align on terms for M23 and FDLR rebels to withdraw and disband. •The Chinese Communist Party holds its annual economic conference on Wednesday. This summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,604/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,123/ton •Gold: $2,657/toz •Lead: $2,072/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.24/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,072/ton Syria •Syrian rebels easily overthrew Pres. Assad after Assad's foreign supporters - primarily Moscow and Tehran - declined to backstop his forces. There were hardly any forces to backstop anyway: many Syrian soldiers quickly ditched their fatigues for civilian clothes as they fled their posts. •Iranian officials quoted in the Financial Times suggested Assad had lost favor with Iran when he failed to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian military assets within Syria. Others told the NYT that Tehran suddenly realized that supporting Assad was a losing battle amidst changing regional dynamics. Still others reportedly turned on Assad because they believed - probably correctly - that Assad has been cozying up to Sunni Arab states like the UAE with offers to loosen ties with Shia Iran in exchange for new post-war reconstruction commitments. •Whatever the reason, Assad clearly lost Iran's support in recent months - which is probably why Assad and his family fled to Moscow instead of Tehran. Russia reportedly offered the Assads asylum in exchange for guarantees Pres. Assad secured from rebels to keep Russian military assets in Syria safe for long enough to allow Russia to collect them. •Now what? A Damascus resident foreshadowed ominously: "We can’t predict the future and anything is possible, but the most important thing is we got rid of this oppressive regime." •It's far from certain that whatever replaces Assad's 24-year reign will be an improvement over his dictatorship and many analysts are worried about a resurgent civil war between rebel factions that have nothing in common now that they've succeeded in overthrowing their mutual enemy. Some are already fighting each other in Manbij. •The strongest of the rebel factions is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is trying to rebrand as a statesman: he even changed his Telegram nickname from his fighting name, Abu Mohammed al Golani, to the much more responsible-sounding "President Ahmed al Shara," and promised to protect the rights of Christians and women as leader. •The U.S. pounded Islamic State targets in eastern Syria to prevent the jihadists from filling the power vacuum Assad's departure left behind. The U.S. has also been exchanging secret messages with HTS via Turkish intermediaries. [The U.S. still considers HTS a terrorist group, but a lesser evil of a terrorist group than the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadists that still control pockets of Syria.] •Meanwhile, Israeli troops crossed into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights to prevent jihadists from solidifying control of border regions. Israel also took advantage of Assad's (and Iran's) departure to carry out airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons and rocket manufacturing facilities across Syria. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 5 July Iran •Analysts are struggling to predict the outcome of today's runoff presidential election in Iran. •On one hand, conservatives have consolidated their support behind hardline candidate Saeed Jalili. •But on the other, many moderates who fear the consequences of a hardline president are turning out to support Jalili's reformist rival, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. •Turnout for today's runoff seems much higher than the record low level of 40% set in the first round. Mozambique •The South African Development Community (SADC) announced the end of its peacekeeping mission in Cabo Delgado. •The three-year mission achieved mixed results: it initially succeeded in reducing the capacity of militant groups to carry out attacks and making the region safe for displaced residents to return home, but the pace of attacks began to rise again in late 2023, causing renewed displacement. •The SADC mission also failed to fulfill its mandate to train Mozambican security forces because it couldn't identify what kind of training the local forces needed. •Those questionably-trained Mozambican security forces will now take over responsibility for the region's security from the withdrawing SADC mission. DRC •A DRC military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death for "fleeing the enemy, dissipating munitions of war and violating orders" after running away from a battle with M23 rebels. •While Congolese soldiers are fleeing the fight, the better-disciplined (and Rwanda-backed) M23 has been able to gain the upper hand and capture several strategic towns in recent weeks. Sahel •Junta leaders from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will meet for the first-ever "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES, en français) summit in Niamey this weekend. •The AES countries have a lot to talk about: all three were booted from the regional ECOWAS bloc because of their coups, so they're now hoping to replace the economic and defense benefits it enjoyed from that alliance by forming a parallel bloc. •They even timed their first AES summit to coincide with ECOWAS's next meeting, which takes place in Abuja on Sunday. •Separately, U.S. troops will complete their withdrawal from Niamey Air Base 101 on Sunday. The remaining U.S. troops in Niger will withdraw - per the junta's demand - by September 15. Gaza and Israel •U.S. and Israeli officials renewed whispers of hope for a ceasefire deal with Hamas after a "breakthrough" in talks. However, even optimistic U.S. officials conceded there are still some major obstacles standing in the way of a truce. •Meanwhile farther north, Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in a drone strike, and Hezbollah retaliated by firing a volley of rockets into Israel as an "initial response." Other News •Disgruntled British voters overthrew the Conservative party after a 14-year reign. Former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer will be the new Prime Minister. •Former PM Liz Truss - who was PM for exactly as many days as David Blaine lived in a glass box suspended over the Thames River - was one of the senior Tory MPs who lost her seat.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 27 June Bolivia •A senior Bolivian general, Juan José Zuñiga, staged a brief and bizarre coup attempt yesterday. •His team of soldiers drove a military vehicle through a palace door in an effort to oust democratically-elected President Luis Arce, but retreated less than three hours later - after it became clear that the rest of the military and police force remained loyal to Arce's command. •Just before he was arrested, Zuñiga claimed that Arce asked him to stage a coup: "The president told me, 'The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" •There may be some truth to that: Arce is competing with his popular predecessor, Evo Morales (who was ousted in 2019 in what he called a "coup"), for their leftist party's 2025 nomination, and squashing a coup attempt helped him look like a patriotic defender of democracy. Arce was quick to call Bolivians out to the streets to cheer for him and "against this coup d’état." •The NYT pointed out that Bolivia has had 190 coups or revolutions in its 200 years of existence. China •Taiwan's government warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to mainland China, where authorities recently threatened to prosecute and execute "diehard" advocates for Taiwanese independence. [Beijing has been tightening its grip on Taiwan as a reaction to the election of new president Lai Ching Te, who the CCP considers to be pro-Taiwanese independence even though he hasn't explicitly advocated for it.] Kenya •Kenya's Pres. Ruto rejected the proposed tax bill that sparked a wave of protests in Nairobi: "Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill, I concede, and therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn." •Kenya has a heavy debt burden, so it will need to find money to make repayments from something other than this rejected tax on basic goods. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's cricket team lost to South Africa in the semifinals of the T20 World Cup, but had a good run: the country is still celebrating the team's surprise upset over the reigning T20 champion, Australia. Iran •Two of the five conservative candidates approved to run in Iran's presidential election tomorrow have dropped out to consolidate the conservative vote. •Their withdrawal leaves three hardliners running against one moderate (by Iranian standards), heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian. •Of the hardliners, parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and ex-nuclear negotiator Saaed Jalili are polling strongest. •Analysts suggest Pezeshkian has a chance of winning if Ghalibaf and Jalili both stay in the race and split the conservative vote. •Iran's presidency is a figurehead role: no matter who wins, the conservative clerics will still dictate policy. DRC •A suspected M23 mortar attack killed two South African peacekeepers - and wounded 20 others - near Goma. Other News •Police in the Maldives arrested Minister for the Environment, Climate Change, and Energy Fathimath Shamnaz Ali Saleem for allegedly vexing her boss, Pres. Mohamed Muizzu, with a "black magic" curse. •The witchcraft accusation seems bogus: if she were really a sorceress, she would presumably use her powers - and her post - to stop her country from sinking into the sea. •Lastly, a U.S. court sentenced former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández to 45 years in prison for collaborating with drug gangs to traffick hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S. while he was president.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 May Birthday of a great man, my late father; Edgar Dale Prince Gaza •Ismail Haniyeh, who leads Hamas's political wing, said Hamas is pondering Israel's latest ceasefire proposal with a "positive spirit," which is more encouraging than the "negative" outlook other Hamas officials indicated for the plan yesterday. •Still, a Hamas spokesman reiterated that "negotiations will stop" if Israel launches its ground invasion of Rafah. In the meantime, Hamas is sending a delegation to Cairo to continue talks. •Turkey halted all trade with Israel over the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" unfolding in Gaza, but said it would resume trade if Israel allows the "uninterrupted and sufficient flow" of humanitarian aid into the strip. Turkey is Israel's fourth-largest trading partner, with 2022 imports plus exports totaling $6.8 billion. Israel's foreign minister accused Pres. Erdogan of acting like a "dictator." [Other critics have called Erdogan a "dictator" before, but usually it's in connection with his electioneering tactics and not trade policy.] •A new UN report estimated it could take 80 years to rebuild the 79,000 Gazan homes that were destroyed in just seven months of fighting, assuming reconstruction moves at the same galacial pace it did after the last two flare-ups in Gaza in 2014 and 2021 (992 per year, on average). And that still ignores the 370,000 Gazan homes that were damaged but not destroyed since Oct. 7. Sahel •Russian trainers entered Airbase 101 in Niger, which houses some of the U.S. troops remaining in the country. SecDef Austin seemed ok with the overlap: "The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment." •The U.S. may not have much kit left at Airbase 101 anyway: following the coup last July it began moving equipment from Airbase 101 near Niamey to Airbase 201 near Agadez. DRC •M23 rebels captured - or "liberated," in their words - the mining city of Rubaya in North Kivu. Rubaya's coltan mines produce about half of DRC's coltan ore supply, containing about ~20% of the total global supply of the critical smartphone mineral tantalum. •Locals report that M23 rebels are now advancing toward the region's largest city, Goma. Russia •Russia's state-owned Gazprom reported its first annual loss in about 20 years for 2023. European purchases of Russian gas dropped because of a mild winter and the war in Ukraine, and the outlook for 2024 looks worse still. Other News •Colombia's Pres. Petro divulged that vast stockpiles of ammunition - including millions of bullets, thousands of grenades, and 37 anti-tank missiles - were stolen from two Colombian military bases. Petro blamed "people within the armed forces who are involved in the illegal arms trade," and suggested the stolen munitions may have been sold to overseas criminal groups, including Haitian gangs. •Separately, early results show Conservatives losing ground in local elections in England and Wales, suggesting Rishi Sunak may struggle to hold onto his premiership in general elections early next year.
Open source reportOff Leash 10 April Gaza The NYT exposed a covert Iranian operation to flood the West Bank with smuggled weapons - mostly small arms - to foment chaos and create problems for Israel. Iranian officials told the Times the operation isn't focused on a particular armed group - rather, it aims to get guns into as many Palestinian hands as possible. Separately, Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, contradicted his boss's earlier assertion that a date had been set for the ground invasion of Rafah to begin. Gallant told U.S. SecDef Austin that the date has not yet been decided. The U.S. and other countries are still urging Israel to use restraint and forge a peace deal instead of invading Rafah, and their pleas are becoming sharper and more direct. For example, yesterday Pres. Biden criticized PM Netanyahu's approach to Gaza in the harshest terms he's used yet, calling it a "mistake." China Fitch downgraded its long-term outlook for China's sovereign debt from stable to negative based on analysts' expectations that the government will boost its borrowing in an effort to jump start economic growth. Beijing called the downgrade a "pity" and insisted the local "hidden" debts Fitch was especially concerned about are manageable. Russia Melting snow is causing devastating floods along Russia's Ural river, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their homes. The Ural floods every year as snow melts off the Ural mountains, but this year's floods are already the worst in decades - and haven't even peaked yet. Some Russians affected by the floods blamed Pres. Putin for ignoring their crisis and staged a rare protest to demand more government help. Separately, Russia's fun-hating republic of Chechnya extinguished another spark of joy by banning dance music that's either too fast (over 116 beats per minute) or too slow (under 80 beats per minute). Chechen musicians have until June 1 to re-record non-compliant tunes within the legal tempo range so they "conform to the Chechen mentality and sense of rhythm." Libya The U.S. State Department clarified recent reports about an American private security contractor - Amentum - training Libyan armed groups: the State Department says Amentum is only offering "classroom training" - not military training - and is conducting its sessions "outside of Libya." DRC Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian troops from the South African Development Community force fighting M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The blasts occurred at the same camp near Goma where two South African soldiers were killed in a similar attack in February. Other News A group of 2,000 elderly Swiss women won a landmark case at the European Court of Human Rights: the court ruled that Swiss policymakers violated the women's human rights by failing to implement adequate climate policies to prevent adverse health outcomes. The case sets a precedent for Europeans to sue their countries for better climate policies. Conservative Swiss media called the ruling "absurd." (EP note. Correct that is completely absurd!)
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