Assad’s Fall Opens a Contested Transition in Syria

Off Leash update 9Dec

Coming Up This Week •Bitcoin MENA 2024 opens today in Abu Dhabi. The cryptocurrency conference will feature Pres.-elect Trump's son, Eric, as its keynote speaker. •The UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow. The previous round of talks in August resulted in a ceasefire deal that's largely holding up (albeit with occasional violations); this next round aims to align on terms for M23 and FDLR rebels to withdraw and disband. •The Chinese Communist Party holds its annual economic conference on Wednesday. This summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,604/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,123/ton •Gold: $2,657/toz •Lead: $2,072/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.24/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,072/ton Syria •Syrian rebels easily overthrew Pres. Assad after Assad's foreign supporters - primarily Moscow and Tehran - declined to backstop his forces. There were hardly any forces to backstop anyway: many Syrian soldiers quickly ditched their fatigues for civilian clothes as they fled their posts. •Iranian officials quoted in the Financial Times suggested Assad had lost favor with Iran when he failed to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian military assets within Syria. Others told the NYT that Tehran suddenly realized that supporting Assad was a losing battle amidst changing regional dynamics. Still others reportedly turned on Assad because they believed - probably correctly - that Assad has been cozying up to Sunni Arab states like the UAE with offers to loosen ties with Shia Iran in exchange for new post-war reconstruction commitments. •Whatever the reason, Assad clearly lost Iran's support in recent months - which is probably why Assad and his family fled to Moscow instead of Tehran. Russia reportedly offered the Assads asylum in exchange for guarantees Pres. Assad secured from rebels to keep Russian military assets in Syria safe for long enough to allow Russia to collect them. •Now what? A Damascus resident foreshadowed ominously: "We can’t predict the future and anything is possible, but the most important thing is we got rid of this oppressive regime." •It's far from certain that whatever replaces Assad's 24-year reign will be an improvement over his dictatorship and many analysts are worried about a resurgent civil war between rebel factions that have nothing in common now that they've succeeded in overthrowing their mutual enemy. Some are already fighting each other in Manbij. •The strongest of the rebel factions is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is trying to rebrand as a statesman: he even changed his Telegram nickname from his fighting name, Abu Mohammed al Golani, to the much more responsible-sounding "President Ahmed al Shara," and promised to protect the rights of Christians and women as leader. •The U.S. pounded Islamic State targets in eastern Syria to prevent the jihadists from filling the power vacuum Assad's departure left behind. The U.S. has also been exchanging secret messages with HTS via Turkish intermediaries. [The U.S. still considers HTS a terrorist group, but a lesser evil of a terrorist group than the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadists that still control pockets of Syria.] •Meanwhile, Israeli troops crossed into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights to prevent jihadists from solidifying control of border regions. Israel also took advantage of Assad's (and Iran's) departure to carry out airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons and rocket manufacturing facilities across Syria. 1/2