Off Leash Intel · loading
5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 8 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Comments come from IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami claiming that Iranian personnel fought alongside Assad until the end but were adjusting to post-Assad realities. This is a message that Iran accepts the rebels’ victory and is abandoning Assad.
Assessment development · updated through
Comments come from IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami claiming that Iranian personnel fought alongside Assad until the end but were adjusting to post-Assad realities. This is a message that Iran accepts the rebels’ victory and is abandoning Assad.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Bashar al-Assad dossier
8 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Masyaf
Israel struck a government research institute in Masyaf, killing at least 18. According to Reuters, a claim that Iranian scientists worked at a facility producing missiles and drones for Iran-aligned groups, and separately alleges that the site produced chemical weapons used by the Assad government.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 13 Dec Iran The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria. That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad. Syria Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.] The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent. Gaza U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month." Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past." However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position. With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people. Ukraine Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts. Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions." Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time. Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages. China Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 9Dec Coming Up This Week •Bitcoin MENA 2024 opens today in Abu Dhabi. The cryptocurrency conference will feature Pres.-elect Trump's son, Eric, as its keynote speaker. •The UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow. The previous round of talks in August resulted in a ceasefire deal that's largely holding up (albeit with occasional violations); this next round aims to align on terms for M23 and FDLR rebels to withdraw and disband. •The Chinese Communist Party holds its annual economic conference on Wednesday. This summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,604/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,123/ton •Gold: $2,657/toz •Lead: $2,072/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.24/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,072/ton Syria •Syrian rebels easily overthrew Pres. Assad after Assad's foreign supporters - primarily Moscow and Tehran - declined to backstop his forces. There were hardly any forces to backstop anyway: many Syrian soldiers quickly ditched their fatigues for civilian clothes as they fled their posts. •Iranian officials quoted in the Financial Times suggested Assad had lost favor with Iran when he failed to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian military assets within Syria. Others told the NYT that Tehran suddenly realized that supporting Assad was a losing battle amidst changing regional dynamics. Still others reportedly turned on Assad because they believed - probably correctly - that Assad has been cozying up to Sunni Arab states like the UAE with offers to loosen ties with Shia Iran in exchange for new post-war reconstruction commitments. •Whatever the reason, Assad clearly lost Iran's support in recent months - which is probably why Assad and his family fled to Moscow instead of Tehran. Russia reportedly offered the Assads asylum in exchange for guarantees Pres. Assad secured from rebels to keep Russian military assets in Syria safe for long enough to allow Russia to collect them. •Now what? A Damascus resident foreshadowed ominously: "We can’t predict the future and anything is possible, but the most important thing is we got rid of this oppressive regime." •It's far from certain that whatever replaces Assad's 24-year reign will be an improvement over his dictatorship and many analysts are worried about a resurgent civil war between rebel factions that have nothing in common now that they've succeeded in overthrowing their mutual enemy. Some are already fighting each other in Manbij. •The strongest of the rebel factions is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is trying to rebrand as a statesman: he even changed his Telegram nickname from his fighting name, Abu Mohammed al Golani, to the much more responsible-sounding "President Ahmed al Shara," and promised to protect the rights of Christians and women as leader. •The U.S. pounded Islamic State targets in eastern Syria to prevent the jihadists from filling the power vacuum Assad's departure left behind. The U.S. has also been exchanging secret messages with HTS via Turkish intermediaries. [The U.S. still considers HTS a terrorist group, but a lesser evil of a terrorist group than the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadists that still control pockets of Syria.] •Meanwhile, Israeli troops crossed into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights to prevent jihadists from solidifying control of border regions. Israel also took advantage of Assad's (and Iran's) departure to carry out airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons and rocket manufacturing facilities across Syria. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Dec China •China responded to a new U.S. ban on exporting certain chip technology to China by announcing its own new ban on exports of select rare minerals - including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard minerals (e.g., tungsten) - to the U.S. •This is a significant escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, but it wasn't a complete surprise: China has been slowly introducing a legal framework for such a ban over the past year-ish, and recently experimented with export restrictions on some of affected minerals. •It also won't have a drastic effect on U.S. supply chains: U.S. manufacturers already buy more semi-finished goods than raw materials and have begun to develop alternate sources of the few raw materials still imported from China. South Korea •South Korea's deeply unpopular President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to ram through political gridlock by imposing martial law and banning "all political activities" late last night. •The public and legislature weren't having it, though: amidst widespread peaceful demonstrations against Yoon's decree, the National Assembly voted unanimously - 190 to 0 - to rescind it. Opposition lawmakers are now seeking Yoon's impeachment for treason. Ukraine •NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged members of the alliance to boost their military support for Ukraine so Ukraine can "get to a position of strength when...peace talks start." NATO's members are suffering donor fatigue, and many have slowed their support for Ukraine. •Separately, a new Yale University report concluded that Pres. Putin and other senior Russian officials "intentionally and directly" allowed the forced deportation, fostering, and eventual adoption of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Ukraine - acts that would constitute war crimes. •These aren't new allegations; rather, they buttress the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) case against Putin and his commissioner for children, Maria Lvova-Belova, on related charges. [Russia isn't a member of the ICC and maintains that the adoptions are noble, patriotic gestures to help abandoned Ukrainian children - not war crimes.] Syria •Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia plans to send Africa Corps (ex-Wagner Group) mercenaries to Syria to bolster Pres. Assad's counteroffensive against Operation Deterrence of Aggression. This has not yet been confirmed or corroborated. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's Taliban government announced a new ban on women studying medicine and midwifery - two of the few remaining fields that were still open to female students. •One of the reasons the medical education loophole remained open to women when they were banned from most other education was that the Taliban also prohibits female patients in some provinces from being treated by male doctors. •Under the new ban, women who are already doctors will probably be allowed to continue practicing, but their ranks will dwindle without a pipeline of new female students to replace those who retire. Venezuela •Eyeing Pres. Trump's threat to slap tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they don't help reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and drug precursors to the U.S., Pres. Maduro proposed a different version of a similar bargain: he said that if the U.S. lifts its sanctions on Venezuela, then "in less than a year, not a single immigrant will go to the U.S." •Maduro has repeatedly tried to blame Venezuela's economic woes - and now migrant flight resulting from those woes - on sanctions, but the truth is that Venezuelan GDP declined in every year from 2013, when Maduro took office, through 2019, when sanctions went into effect. [As with Maduro's election tallies, his official economic statistics tell a different story that lacks numerical support and begs belief.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept Syria •Israel targeted a government research institute in Masyaf, Syria, killing at least 18. •Reuters reported that a team of Iranian scientists was working at the institute, which produces short- and long-range missiles and drones that Iran sends to its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. (The facility also produces chemical weapons that Pres. Assad uses on his own people). Israel •A Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilian workers at the Allenby Bridge border crossing. Jordan has a vigilant security service and strong security ties with Israel (though many Jordanians sympathize with their Palestinian neighbors), so attacks like this are rare. This was the first one along the Jordanian-Israeli border since Oct. 7. •Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hamas command that it said was "disguised in the humanitarian area in Khan Younis," killing at least 40. Hamas said the casualties were displaced civilians and denied hiding militants among them. Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain. •Gonzalez joins a long list of Venezuelan opposition leaders - and even mere sympathizers - driven into exile. The NYT interviewed five others who served as election observers but fled to exile in Colombia after (rightfully) asking questions about election results. •Those that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far. China •Foreign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. •Perhaps in response, Communist Party leaders removed two industries - publishing and traditional medicine production - from the list of sectors barring foreign investment. There are still 29 industries on the restricted list. Ukraine •Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that it claims shot down 144 Ukrainian drones. •Ukraine claimed Moscow also launched a reciprocal drone attack on Kyiv. Mexico •Mexico's upper chamber is weighing a controversial constitutional change that will swap 7,000 judges with new, popularly-elected replacements. •The proposal was easily passed in the lower chamber last week, and there are rumors that enough upper chamber swing legislators have swung in favor of the amendment and are ready to pass it. •AMLO is pitching the change as a much-needed judicial reform, but the plan's myriad critics say it will expose judges to stronger political influence from Morena leaders - or worse, from bad actors like drug cartels. Other News •Fresh off local elections that resulted in big gains for the far right - and smarting from two deadly stabbings committed by rejected asylees - Germany said it would expand border patrols and strengthen a "hard line" on illegal migration. •Separately, Australia's government announced plans to ban children from social media - though it didn't confirm where the age cutoff would be.
Open source report