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8 direct mentions across 8 briefings, with 7 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike cut power to its South Kivu mine. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied the site in May and removed about $70 million in gold and $5 million in equipment and materials for transfer through Rwanda.
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Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike cut power to its South Kivu mine. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied the site in May and removed about $70 million in gold and $5 million in equipment and materials for transfer through Rwanda.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Rwanda dossier
4 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Kalembe, North Kivu
Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured Kalembe in North Kivu, ending a ceasefire reached in August following Angolan mediation.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 October RUSSIA •The Kremlin warned European leaders against approving a proposal to essentially advance Ukraine €140 billion ($156 billion) in future reparations funding backed by frozen Russian assets. •The EU plan would package that funding as an interest-free loan to avoid the complexities of seizing Russian assets outright, but the Kremlin now says it would consider such crafty financial engineering the same thing as a seizure anyway, and would retaliate by seizing an equivalent value of frozen European assets in Russia. •Separately, French authorities seized a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker off France's western coast and detained two of its crew over the tanker's suspected ties to recent drone flights over European countries. That lends credence to Ukrainian President Zelensky's assertion that the trespassing drones are being launched from Russia's "shadow fleet." •Indeed, the seized tanker, the Borocay, was sailing near the Danish coast last week when unidentified drones - likely launched from it - menaced Denmark's skies and forced its main airport to temporarily close. DRC •Some Congo watchers - especially those aligned with former president Joseph Kabila - expressed concern that the death sentence a military court handed Kabila on Tuesday will derail the bumbling and half-hearted peace process that DRC and the M23 / Rwanda entered into over the summer. •Kabila's sympathizers are probably correct that his conviction and sentence were politically motivated, and the conviction is certainly not going to encourage Kabila to help end the conflict in the east. But the death sentence is unlikely to ever be carried out, and the peace process is already so broken that a vindictive verdict against Kabila is unlikely to do much further damage. AFGHANISTAN •Internet service returned to Afghanistan after a two-day outage that media reports tied to a Taliban edict against "immorality." •A Taliban spokesman now says the government didn't intentionally cut off internet this time - unlike from 1996 to 2001 during their last turn in power, when they did ban internet use. •That may be a way to save face after Taliban leaders realized how much Afghanistan's economy and people now depend on the internet for basic and Taliban-tolerated (for men, at least) functions like trade, travel, and communications. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is St. Patrick's Day, commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, the arrival of Christianity to Ireland, and – in the U.S. - beer ☘️ •March Madness starts this week and culminates in NCAA title games April 6 (women) and 7 (men). Last year was the first year the women's final drew more viewers than the men's game. •Both DRC and the M23 confirmed that their delegates are in Luanda for Angola-mediated peace talks due to start tomorrow...maybe (more on that below). •Thursday is the vernal equinox, which marks the start of spring in the northern hemisphere - and Nowruz, or new year, in Iran. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,682/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $36,170/ton •Copper: $9,781/ton •Gold: $2,997/toz [Gold prices surpassed $3,000/toz for the first time last week on higher demand due to expected rate cuts and concerns that tariffs will slow global growth] •Lead: $2,069/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.07/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,973/ton DRC •Angola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea. The M23 even accused DRC of escalating its airstrikes on Rwandan and M23 positions today. •Optimism for tomorrow's summit is low. •Separately, Rwanda and Belgium mutually severed diplomatic ties over Rwanda's role in the ongoing conflict (which Rwanda implausibly denies). UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO. GAZA •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for abruptly firing Shin Bet director Rohen Bar, who is reportedly investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for wrongdoing. Netanyahu's critics say he's seeking to expand his control within the government. YEMEN •Two weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses. •Iran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted. SERBIA •Over 100,000 Serbians - and perhaps far more - protested against Pres. Aleksandar Vucic on Saturday in what some described as the largest demonstrations in Serbia's history (Vucic described it as a "large protest with enormous negative energy toward the authorities.") •Demonstrators are frustrated with the lack of government accountability over a train station collapse last November. Vucic said his government "understood the message and we will have to change ourselves," but he hasn't proposed any meaningful changes since the protests began. •Media reports accused Belgrade police of using a banned "sonic weapon" to disperse protesters, but Vucic denied the allegations as "a vile lie," saying he'd heard the weapon's sound "abroad" and "that sound was not heard on the streets of Belgrade on Saturday night." VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump invoked part of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to deport 261 alleged gang members - including 238 from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and 23 from the multinational MS-13 gang - to El Salvador. A U.S. court order blocked some of the deportations, but only after they'd already taken place: El Salvador's Pres. Bukele tweeted, "Oopsie... Too late." EPIC!
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Feb Ukraine and Russia •After hosting France's Pres. Macron at the White House, Pres. Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine - which started three years ago yesterday - could be over "within weeks." •Trump added that he may visit Moscow in the coming months to advance peace talks with Pres. Putin - to the chagrin of Pres. Zelensky and EU leaders, who bemoan being left out of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks. •Meanwhile at the UN, the U.S. voted against a non-binding European resolution condemning Russia for the war and calling on it to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. The U.S. instead introduced its own, softer resolution that still called for a quick end to the war, but - in the NYT's reading - "essentially sid[ed] with Moscow over longtime allies." •Separately, China's Pres. Xi and Russia's Pres. Putin spoke by video call yesterday. After the call, Xi gushed that China and Russia are "true friends who have been through thick and thin together," which led analysts to suggest that the point of the call was to disprove speculation that Putin's rapprochement with Trump comes at the cost of weakening Russia's bond with China. Gaza •The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal ends Sunday, and Israel and Hamas have reportedly not yet started negotiating the second phase. Hamas now says it will only return to negotiations if Israel releases the 620 Palestinian prisoners it was due to release over the weekend. DRC •DRC surprised the cobalt market with a new four-month ban on exports of the metal - 77% of which is produced in DRC (mainly in the southern copper belt - this is unrelated to the insecurity plaguing the east). •The export ban is intended to buoy cobalt prices - which have fallen by about 25% in the past year because of declining demand amidst a supply glut - but it won't be a long-term fix for the oversupplied cobalt market. That's because almost all of DRC's cobalt is produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel production, which will continue apace. The resulting cobalt byproduct will just be stockpiled in DRC, and - as soon as the export ban is lifted - it will flood the market, crashing prices again. •Some analysts are suggesting the export ban could harm DRC's long-term production potential because it could scare shocked buyers into sourcing from alternate producers with greater regulatory transparency - like Indonesia. •Meanwhile, the situation in the east continues to devolve, and the International Rescue Committee reports that at least 40,000 Congolese have fled to Burundi. Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the UN Human Rights Council that 7,000 people have died in recent weeks - roughly double the UN's earlier estimate. •DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft - though I'm not sure what good that decree will do when Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports. Syria •Syria's new leaders have been courting international partners in an effort to win allies and relief from sanctions imposed on the deposed Assad regime. Their efforts are paying off...but slowly. •Yesterday, EU foreign ministers agreed to ease restrictions on the central bank and energy sectors, lift asset freezes for five banks, suspend sanctions on the transport sector, and indefinitely extend an exemption allowing humanitarian aid delivery. •The EU's relief measures will help, but Syria still needs far more help to rebuild. U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Syria's central bank remains barred from the global SWIFT network. Venezuela •Another opposition activist, Reinaldo Araujo, died in Venezuelan jail from chronic health problems that deteriorated since his arrest on Jan. 9. Opposition-linked NGOs estimate 20 political prisoners have now died in detention. •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado blamed Pres. Maduro's regime for Araujo's death and renewed her call on Maduro to free all political prisoners. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Feb DRC •The situation in eastern DRC is unraveling quickly, with both Rwanda and Uganda now actively fighting to tear off pieces of DRC in a manner akin to how the Soviets and Nazis raced to rip Poland into pieces. •After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, Rwandan troops are continuing south and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target could be the city of Uvira. •Meanwhile, Ugandan troops invaded Bunia in the north and called on Congolese forces there to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. The Ugandans appear to be heading for Butembo, and are attacking all Congolese army positions along the way. Ukraine •Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years. •The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now. •European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future. •Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.] •Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow. Gaza •Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare." •Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF. •The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split. •Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF. Syria 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 9Dec Coming Up This Week •Bitcoin MENA 2024 opens today in Abu Dhabi. The cryptocurrency conference will feature Pres.-elect Trump's son, Eric, as its keynote speaker. •The UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow. The previous round of talks in August resulted in a ceasefire deal that's largely holding up (albeit with occasional violations); this next round aims to align on terms for M23 and FDLR rebels to withdraw and disband. •The Chinese Communist Party holds its annual economic conference on Wednesday. This summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,604/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,123/ton •Gold: $2,657/toz •Lead: $2,072/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.24/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,072/ton Syria •Syrian rebels easily overthrew Pres. Assad after Assad's foreign supporters - primarily Moscow and Tehran - declined to backstop his forces. There were hardly any forces to backstop anyway: many Syrian soldiers quickly ditched their fatigues for civilian clothes as they fled their posts. •Iranian officials quoted in the Financial Times suggested Assad had lost favor with Iran when he failed to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian military assets within Syria. Others told the NYT that Tehran suddenly realized that supporting Assad was a losing battle amidst changing regional dynamics. Still others reportedly turned on Assad because they believed - probably correctly - that Assad has been cozying up to Sunni Arab states like the UAE with offers to loosen ties with Shia Iran in exchange for new post-war reconstruction commitments. •Whatever the reason, Assad clearly lost Iran's support in recent months - which is probably why Assad and his family fled to Moscow instead of Tehran. Russia reportedly offered the Assads asylum in exchange for guarantees Pres. Assad secured from rebels to keep Russian military assets in Syria safe for long enough to allow Russia to collect them. •Now what? A Damascus resident foreshadowed ominously: "We can’t predict the future and anything is possible, but the most important thing is we got rid of this oppressive regime." •It's far from certain that whatever replaces Assad's 24-year reign will be an improvement over his dictatorship and many analysts are worried about a resurgent civil war between rebel factions that have nothing in common now that they've succeeded in overthrowing their mutual enemy. Some are already fighting each other in Manbij. •The strongest of the rebel factions is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is trying to rebrand as a statesman: he even changed his Telegram nickname from his fighting name, Abu Mohammed al Golani, to the much more responsible-sounding "President Ahmed al Shara," and promised to protect the rights of Christians and women as leader. •The U.S. pounded Islamic State targets in eastern Syria to prevent the jihadists from filling the power vacuum Assad's departure left behind. The U.S. has also been exchanging secret messages with HTS via Turkish intermediaries. [The U.S. still considers HTS a terrorist group, but a lesser evil of a terrorist group than the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadists that still control pockets of Syria.] •Meanwhile, Israeli troops crossed into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights to prevent jihadists from solidifying control of border regions. Israel also took advantage of Assad's (and Iran's) departure to carry out airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons and rocket manufacturing facilities across Syria. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
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