Off Leash Intel · loading
9 direct mentions across 9 briefings, with 11 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The junta will continue accepting Russian assistance but may deepen ties with Turkey, Burkina Faso, Niger and potentially the United States. Other governments relying on Russia’s Africa Corps will watch the outcome closely.
Assessment development · updated through
The junta will continue accepting Russian assistance but may deepen ties with Turkey, Burkina Faso, Niger and potentially the United States. Other governments relying on Russia’s Africa Corps will watch the outcome closely.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Turkey dossier
10 mapped developments across 8 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Lebanon
Turkey called on Israel to compensate Lebanon for airstrike damage and attributes an estimate of $8.5 billion in damage and losses to the World Bank.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 29 April UAE •The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which produces about 12% of global oil, announced that it will leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective Friday. •The UAE has long complained that OPEC's quotas constrain its oil exports and has been threatening to quit the cartel for years so it can have more flexibility to meet market demand. [In the long run, that is. For now, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a far tighter curb on Emirati oil exports than OPEC production controls.] •The UAE's departure from OPEC could also lead to more volatile oil prices in the long run, since less of the world's oil supply will be subject to OPEC oversight. IRAQ •After months of deadlock, Iraq's Pres. Nizar Amedi named businessman Ali al Zaidi as his prime minister (PM) designate and tasked al Zaidi with forming a government. •Al Zaidi's appointment was perhaps partly intended to appease Pres. Trump, who vigorously opposed Amedi's first choice for PM - two-time PM Nouri al Maliki - over the latter's close ties to Iran and threatened to end U.S. support for Iraq if al Maliki was re-appointed. •Al Zaidi has his own links with Iran: he owns Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, which is under U.S. sanctions over 2024 allegations of laundering money to Iran and its proxies. •But that doesn't seem to bother Trump as much as the prospect of a continued power struggle or another al Maliki government in Iraq. Washington has signalled that it won't oppose al Zaidi's designation, despite sanctions against his bank. MALI •Gold miners operating in Mali seem unfazed by the coordinated attacks Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) staged over the weekend. •For one thing, miners bold enough to be operating in Mali right now are used to being targeted directly - as when JNIM attacked Flagship Gold's Morila Mine in January - but were largely spared by this assault, which targeted junta leaders. Record-high gold prices are giving them added incentive to stay put. •The BBC suggested that the failure of Russian Africa Corps fighters to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia's reputation as a reliable security partner in the Sahel. •The broader assault also raised questions about Col. Assimi Goita's military leadership, which has failed to solve the security problems that prompted its coup to overthrow Mali's last civilian government in 2020. •Assuming it survives, Mali's junta will likely continue to accept Russian help, but may now seek to deepen other security partnerships, including with Turkey, its fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even the U.S., which sent its most senior Africa-focused diplomat to Bamako earlier this year. •The juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger - which also rely on Russian security support - will be watching Mali closely. So will Africa Corps' other partners on the continent, which include Libya and the Central African Republic. •[Russia's defense ministry unconvincingly claimed that Africa Corps troops valiantly defended Kidal, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, and also prevented a coup against Goita's government. The Kremlin also alleged, without evidence, that the JNIM and FLA fighters that Africa Corps defeated had been trained by European instructors, including Ukrainians.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges. Iran's leaders have publicly dismissed the ultimatum, but Trump told Fox he thinks there's a "good chance" that private talks will reach a deal today to avoid escalation. •The first round of the golf Masters Tournament opens Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. FOUR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEKEND •Djibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75 that would've rendered him ineligible. Incidentally, that age limit was only imposed as part of a 2010 electoral "reform" that did away with term limits so he could run for a third term. This will be his sixth. •Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday. The Fidesz party's populist incumbent, Viktor Orban, is trailing in (independent) polls by 11 points to the center-right Tisza party's Peter Magyar, but government polls tell a different story, and analysts think Orban will pull out all the stops to extend his 16-year premiership. •Benin will vote for president on Sunday. The ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running. •Peru votes for president and parliament on Sunday. Two right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,470/ton •Antimony (global avg. from Antimony Global): $34,352/ton [Note: I'm switching to a new antimony benchmark that should be a better indicator of global average prices than the unconvincingly flat benchmark I was using for trioxide min. 99.65% fob China. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, antimony is usually traded through private over-the-counter contracts, which means prices are highly volatile and variable. This Antimony Global world average seems like the best big-picture benchmark out there.] •Bitcoin: $68,928 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,360/ton •Ethereum: $2,126 •Gold: $4,665/toz •Lead: $1,933/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.80/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $111.71/barrel •Zinc: $3,265/ton IRAN •Oil markets are volatile while waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal or - in the absence of a deal - if Pres. Trump will make good on his increasingly brash threats against Iran if it doesn't "open the fuckin' strait" by his deadline of 8 pm ET tomorrow. •Trump seemed emboldened to escalate his rhetoric by the success of a high-risk rescue mission to locate and extract a U.S. Air Force colonel whose F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down in southern Iran on Friday. •Iranian forces were desperately searching for the downed airman, too, and would've used him as negotiating leverage if they'd found him first. A CIA deception campaign helped ensure that didn't happen. •Separately, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither has responded yet, and it's unclear whether this is the deal that Trump gave a "good chance" of closing today. •Meanwhile, a likely Israeli strike killed Majid Khademi - the head of intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - earlier today. Khademi had only been in his post since last June, when his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike. TRADE •Bloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering. •That's the highest seven-day rolling total since the war began, and it included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker - both with no clear links to Iran. However, it's still just a trickle compared to the historical average of 138 transits per day. •Iran has reportedly set up a tolling system - which witty commentators dubbed an "ayatollah booth" - to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage. It has also restricted transits to a narrow northern passage, creating a natural limit on traffic too. •Meanwhile, European leaders are exploring options for safeguarding trade in the Strait. They're reportedly considering naval escorts (French Pres. Macron's preferred option), minesweeping, aerial interceptors, and - the bureaucrats' favorite - negotiations and economic measures. All have drawbacks, and none are sure to work. CHINA •Cheng Li-wun, who leads Taiwan's largest opposition party - the Kuomintang (KMT) - won her party's leadership in October after campaigning on closer ties with mainland China. That platform also won her an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit the mainland, which she's doing this week with a delegation that will stop in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing. •Xi's courtship of the KMT under Cheng is likely part of his push to reunify Taiwan. It would be easier if a pliant future KMT government simply agreed to reunification than if Beijing had to take the island by force. •To that end, Beijing also reached out to the current (more defiant) Taiwanese government in early March to offer energy guarantees if it agreed to reunify. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party leaders quickly rejected the proposal, which was probably more of an optics play (to show Taiwan that its leaders refuse dialogue even at the expense of energy security) than a real offer. HUNGARY •Serbian officials discovered two backpacks containing explosives near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary. That appears to corroborate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that "Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy." •However, Hungary's opposition leader, Peter Magyar - who's leading Orban in independent polls ahead of Sunday's election - was skeptical. Magyar accused Orban of staging a "false flag" operation to scare voters into rallying behind their strongman leader on Sunday.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 DEC UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Pres. Zelensky shared the revised peace proposal that Ukraine and the U.S. have been drawing up. •The new, 20-point plan - which Zelensky called "quite solid" - calls on Russia to withdraw from some of the territory it has occupied in eastern Ukraine to create a demilitarized buffer zone. Zelensky said Ukraine would consider pulling its troops back, too. •U.S. officials will present the new plan to Russia today, but it's bound to fall on deaf ears: Pres. Putin ignored earlier proposals that were far more slanted in his favor, so he's highly unlikely to entertain this fairer one. •Separately, a car bomb killed three people near the site in Moscow where Gen. Fanil Sarvarov was assassinated earlier this week. Russia suspects Ukraine in both attacks. VENEZUELA •U.S. forces struck a 29th alleged drug boat as part of Operation Southern Spear - this time in the eastern Pacific - killing one. IRAN •During a UN Security Council session yesterday, both Iran and the U.S. insisted they're open to reviving nuclear talks, which ended when the U.S. waged a 12-day air war on Iran's nuclear sites in June. •However, the two sides can't even agree on terms for resuming talks: the U.S. demands that Iran stop all uranium enrichment before any negotiations take place, but Iran's UN Ambassador called that pre-condition "a violation to our rights as a member of the NPT" (referring to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons). YEMEN •Yemen's internationally-recognized government and the Houthi rebels they're fighting agreed to the largest prisoner swap of their 11-year civil war. •The Houthis plan to release 1,200 prisoners - including seven Saudis and 23 Sudanese - in exchange for the government freeing 1,700 Houthi prisoners. •Some lauded the swap - which was mediated by the UN and the Red Cross - as a rare bright spot for diplomacy in a conflict that otherwise seems stalemated, but others worried that the deal only rewards the Houthi's strategy of detaining civilians and aid workers for use as bargaining chips in deals like this. LIBYA •Libya's army chief, Mohammed Ali Ahmed al Haddad, died along with seven others when their plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Turkey. •Al Haddad was in Turkey on a state visit where he secured Ankara's agreement to keep troops in Libya to bolster the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) for another year. •Investigators are studying the cause of the crash, but an initial assessment ruled out sabotage. The GNA's enfeebled Prime Minister, Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, called it a "tragic accident," while his eastern ex-rival, Khalifa Haftar, expressed "deep sorrow over this tragic loss." (Note: I am highly skeptical. He was one of the good ones in Libya. No aircraft suddenly crashes after thirty minutes in flight unless there's a pressure activated bomb aboard )
Open source reportOff Leash Update 10 Nov 2025 Happy 250th Anniversary to the United States Marine Corps! COMING UP THIS WEEK •COP30 - the UN's climate conference - starts today and runs through Nov. 21. This year's edition will include fewer world leaders than attended past summits. The lackluster turnout is leading some to question the purpose of the summit. •The U.S. celebrates Veterans Day tomorrow, and the American Legion published a list of nationwide deals and discounts veterans can enjoy here: https://t.co/ri80Zt9MMx. •Tomorrow is also Iraq's election. Voter registration figures suggest Iraqis are disillusioned with their politicians, and many Shia will probably join popular cleric Moqtada al Sadr in boycotting the vote. Those who vote are expected to do so along sectarian lines, leaving Iraq's political elite to allocate power amongst themselves. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,848/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $106,245 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,717/ton •Ethereum: $3,604 •Gold: $4,078/toz •Lead: $2,047/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.49/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.22/barrel •Zinc: $3,057/ton VENEZUELA •Numerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - allegedly - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty. •Whether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority. •Separately, Venezuela's army released a series of new patriotic promotional videos over the weekend as part of what some analysts suspect is an effort to motivate soldiers and attract new recruits. •In one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background. Gamers around the world may be worried: astute observers pointed out that the simulators behind Láre bear an uncanny resemblence to FPV Kamikaze Drone, a video game sold on Steam for $3.99. GAZA •Turkey accused Israel of bombing a Turkish hospital in Gaza and issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity." Israel called it a "PR stunt." •While trading diplomatic barbs with Israel, Turkey is apparently constructively helping the U.S. and UAE try to negotiate safe passage for Hamas fighters trapped in tunnels in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza. •Separately, Hamas returned the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who was killed in Gaza in 2014. Goldin was one of the deceased hostages whose release was mandated by the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. DRONES •The UK said it would lend Belgium military support to protect against a wave of drone incursions into Belgian airspace. IRAN •Tehran's water supplies have continued to dwindle through a rain-less autumn, and authorities have started rationing water. •Late last week, Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian - who has been sounding the alarm about Tehran's looming water crisis for months - warned that Tehran residents may need to evacuate if the drought lasts another month. The Ministry of Energy is trying to draw rain using "cloud seeding" first. INDIA •A car bomb killed at least 10 people near one of Delhi's top tourist attractions - the Red Fort - today, leading authorities to impose a high security alert on other tourist and government sites in the capital. •Investigators are treading cautiously and not explicitly calling it a terrorist attack yet - but the fact that India's federal anti-terror investigators are leading the inquiry suggests terrorism is a leading theory.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July AZERBAIJAN •Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev are meeting in the UAE today to finalize a peace deal ending almost 40 years of border wars. •Their detente is seen as a sign of Russia's waning influence in the South Caucasus: Moscow previously made itself indispensable in the region by alternately fueling and mediating border conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. •With those conflicts now largely resolved (despite sporadic ceasefire violations), Russia can no longer gain leverage by mediating them. KURDISTAN •The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, released a video declaring the PKK's armed insurgency against the Turkish state over, and calling on his loyal supporters to join his "voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law." •That's the same message Öcalan shared in a letter from jail in February, after which the PKK began the process of disbanding. That process continues this Friday, when some PKK fighters in Iraqi Kurdistan will hold a symbolic ceremony to destroy their weapons. •The truce still seems fragile, as Turkey hasn't formally agreed to any of the concessions Öcalan and the PKK seek, which include expanded autonomy for Kurds in Turkey. GAZA •Hamas said it agreed to release 10 hostages as a gesture of goodwill amidst ongoing ceasefire talks with Israel. However, its negotiators also complained that truce talks were "tough" because of Israel's "intransigence." KENYA •Kenya's Pres. Ruto is setting a great example for how *not* to handle peaceful protests or improve trust in government. •Many Kenyans have lost faith in their government and turned out to protest on Monday in commemoration of Saba Saba, the day in 1990 when Kenyans rejected Daniel arap Moi's autocratic rule and embraced multiparty democracy. •Ruto reportedly sent police to infiltrate and agitate Monday's protests, and openly admits that he ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs ("so they break and they can go to hospital on their way to court.") TRADE •The Trump administration sent new letters to at least seven more countries warning them of the tariffs they face starting Aug. 1 if they don't seal bilateral trade deals with the U.S. before then. •Trump also threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% starting Aug. 1 for subjecting ex-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro - a Trump ally - to a "witch hunt" by trying him for allegedly attempting to stage a coup to stay in power. Brazil's current president, Lula, vowed to reciprocate.
Open source reportA claimed Ukrainian assassination in Moscow, Israeli and factional maneuvering in Syria, renewed Gaza negotiations, growing IRGC control over Iranian oil exports and competing political claims in Venezuela.
Open source reportWashington exchanged secret messages with HTS through Turkish intermediaries while continuing to regard HTS as a terrorist organization.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Nov 2024 Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving to you all America! We stand on the shoulders of giants and must care wisely for our Republic. Hezbollah •Israel's cabinet approved a deal for a "permanent cessation of hostilities" with Hezbollah yesterday, and it went into effect at 4 am local time. •As early reports suggested, the truce gives Israel 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, handing control of those areas to the Lebanese military, which will be responsible for ensuring Hezbollah doesn't return to the border regions (as it did quickly after the failed 2006 peace agreement). •Turkey called on Israel to pay Lebanon reparations for the damage Israeli airstrikes inflicted during the campaign. The World Bank estimated that the three-month campaign caused Lebanon $8.5 billion in damage and losses. However, Israel has no obligation to pay - and probably won't. •Some - including Pres. Biden - were hopeful that Hezbollah's decision to make peace with Israel will galvanize (or cow) Hamas into a similar agreement, but that doesn't seem likely: neither Hamas nor Israel has shown any inclination to deescalate. China •The Financial Times (FT) reported that China's Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, is being investigated for corruption. Dong is the third Chinese Defense Minister in a row to face corruption allegations. •Analysts think the investigation is a sign that Pres. Xi is expanding his crackdown on corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Some further surmised that the inquiries - and the fact that they keep digging up dirt on Xi's handpicked top brass - could shake Xi's confidence in his military, which could alter his timeline and ambitions on Beijing's claim to Taiwan. •China dismissed the FT report about Dong as "shadow chasing," but there have been other signs that Dong's clout is diminished: for example, he was recently skipped over for a widely-expected appointment to the Central Military Commission that runs the PLA. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's government announced yet another investigation into alleged "crimes of treason against the country" by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. •Maduro blames Machado for inspiring the U.S. to slap sanctions on him and his cronies, but all she really did was organize a way to expose Maduro's election theft by collecting true vote tallies that confirmed he lost the election. Mozambique •After weeks of trying to brush post-election protests under the rug, Pres. Nyusi acknowledged an impasse and offered to meet opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane for talks on election results Mondlane has questioned. Mondlane refused to attend in person but offered to talk virtually - if the ruling Frelimo party agrees to that and his other demands. •Some minor opposition parties did attend talks with Frelimo, but the meeting lost steam quickly without a quorum. •Meanwhile, protests flared back up after police violently broke up a pro-Mondlane rally. Netizens were particularly aghast at a widely-shared video of an armored police vehicle running down an unarmed protester earlier today. Pakistan •Supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan ended their demonstrations demanding his release - and the dissolution of the government that convicted him - after police used force to disrupt the rallies. At least six - including both police and demonstrators - died in the melee.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 May Birthday of a great man, my late father; Edgar Dale Prince Gaza •Ismail Haniyeh, who leads Hamas's political wing, said Hamas is pondering Israel's latest ceasefire proposal with a "positive spirit," which is more encouraging than the "negative" outlook other Hamas officials indicated for the plan yesterday. •Still, a Hamas spokesman reiterated that "negotiations will stop" if Israel launches its ground invasion of Rafah. In the meantime, Hamas is sending a delegation to Cairo to continue talks. •Turkey halted all trade with Israel over the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" unfolding in Gaza, but said it would resume trade if Israel allows the "uninterrupted and sufficient flow" of humanitarian aid into the strip. Turkey is Israel's fourth-largest trading partner, with 2022 imports plus exports totaling $6.8 billion. Israel's foreign minister accused Pres. Erdogan of acting like a "dictator." [Other critics have called Erdogan a "dictator" before, but usually it's in connection with his electioneering tactics and not trade policy.] •A new UN report estimated it could take 80 years to rebuild the 79,000 Gazan homes that were destroyed in just seven months of fighting, assuming reconstruction moves at the same galacial pace it did after the last two flare-ups in Gaza in 2014 and 2021 (992 per year, on average). And that still ignores the 370,000 Gazan homes that were damaged but not destroyed since Oct. 7. Sahel •Russian trainers entered Airbase 101 in Niger, which houses some of the U.S. troops remaining in the country. SecDef Austin seemed ok with the overlap: "The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment." •The U.S. may not have much kit left at Airbase 101 anyway: following the coup last July it began moving equipment from Airbase 101 near Niamey to Airbase 201 near Agadez. DRC •M23 rebels captured - or "liberated," in their words - the mining city of Rubaya in North Kivu. Rubaya's coltan mines produce about half of DRC's coltan ore supply, containing about ~20% of the total global supply of the critical smartphone mineral tantalum. •Locals report that M23 rebels are now advancing toward the region's largest city, Goma. Russia •Russia's state-owned Gazprom reported its first annual loss in about 20 years for 2023. European purchases of Russian gas dropped because of a mild winter and the war in Ukraine, and the outlook for 2024 looks worse still. Other News •Colombia's Pres. Petro divulged that vast stockpiles of ammunition - including millions of bullets, thousands of grenades, and 37 anti-tank missiles - were stolen from two Colombian military bases. Petro blamed "people within the armed forces who are involved in the illegal arms trade," and suggested the stolen munitions may have been sold to overseas criminal groups, including Haitian gangs. •Separately, early results show Conservatives losing ground in local elections in England and Wales, suggesting Rishi Sunak may struggle to hold onto his premiership in general elections early next year.
Open source report