Ukraine’s air-defense strain, U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran and Evergrande sentencing

Off Leash update 21 August 2026

UKRAINE •It now looks like ousted defense secretary Mykhailo Fedorov miscalculated when he launched a political challenge against Pres. Zelensky by calling for wartime elections. •Fedorov's call fell flat. Ukrainians may detest the corruption scandals dogging Zelensky's government, but the president remains widely popular - though not as popular as Fedorov - and many worry about the impact elections would have on their national unity - or on Zelensky's ability to continue leading the country through a war. •Even Fedorov's greatest supporters - the protesters who were rallying for his reinstatement as defense minister - largely disagreed with his call for elections. Nearly all of them dispersed this week, ending weeks of demonstrations. •Meanwhile, Russia's strikes on Ukraine are getting deadlier because Ukraine is short of interceptors. In March, Kyiv boasted of intercepting around 70% of incoming ballistic missiles. In July, it quietly conceded that it had intercepted only 20%. •Russia knows this, and is taking advantage of Ukraine's weakness. While it usually opens its overnight attacks by sending drone swarms to distract interceptors from the missiles that follow, last night's barrage began with ballistic missiles. •Ukraine is pleading for more interceptors - especially Patriots - but there are fewer to go around because many were used up against Iranian missiles. Countries that still have some are hoarding them, although production is ramping up to build more. Russia, though, is also accelerating missile production.

IRAN •U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to impose the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, and urged China - Iran's largest trading partner and the main buyer of its oil - to "get with the program." •China declined to partake. A spokesman for its leaders warned that "economic warfare" won't work, and called for the U.S. and Iran to negotiate a diplomatic solution instead. That suits Beijing well: it can continue buying cheap Iranian oil, and has little interest in crippling an Iranian regime busy antagonizing the U.S.

CHINA •Hui Ka Yan, the billionaire founder of China's disgraced property giant, Evergrande, was sentenced to life in prison and ordered to forfeit all of his personal assets to the state. •He reportedly pleaded guilty to the state's fraud charges against him back in April - 2.5 years after he suddenly disappeared from public life, and nearly five years after Evergrande spectacularly collapsed under $300 billion in debt. That collapse exposed cracks in China's property sector that are still weighing on the economy.