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The measures did not penalize countries for trading with Iran. Bessent instead said the administration would ask world leaders to “cease their interactions with Iran.”
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The measures did not penalize countries for trading with Iran. Bessent instead said the administration would ask world leaders to “cease their interactions with Iran.”
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Scott Bessent dossier
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United States
Wednesday is the postponed effective date for new U.S. tariffs and says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had suggested another extension could provide time for bilateral trade agreements.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 25 August 2026 IRAN •U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a package of new punitive measures against Iran as part of what he dubbed Operation Economic Outcast, but Bessent himself acknowledged that the new penalties were more of a "warning shot" than the "economic D-Day" he'd threatened to unleash on Iran. •The measures Bessent announced are indeed minor. His Treasury Department expanded its ability to punish foreign companies helping five specific sectors of Iran's economy: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. It also imposed sanctions on over 60 individuals and entities linked to Iran's missile and nuclear programs who were somehow not already blacklisted. And it plans to sanction more entities - including an unspecified large financial institution - by the end of this week. •But the new package stopped far short of imposing secondary sanctions on Iran's trading partners. Instead of penalizing other countries for trading with Iran, Bessent said the Trump administration plans to adopt a gentler approach of simply asking world leaders to kindly "cease their interactions with Iran." •That soft pressure will work with some nations - like the UAE, which announced a total trade embargo on Iran last week. But Iran's largest trading partner, China, has already signalled that it has no interest in helping the U.S. cripple Iran's economy. •Some question whether any level of economic pain will force the Iranian regime's hardliners to negotiate after decades of sanctions failed to change them. Many of them probably still agree with what their founding Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei, said back in Sep. 1979: "No wise person can imagine that we sacrificed our blood so that melons would become cheap! [That] we gave our youth so that housing would become affordable … It is for Islam that a person can give up his life. Our saints also gave up their lives for Islam, not for economics. Economics is not worthy of this." •Meanwhile, Pakistani officials said Field Marshal Munir's recent trip to Tehran had made "significant progress" towards ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. UKRAINE •UK Prime Minister Burnham is using his first foreign trip since taking office to offer bold support for Ukraine. He announced that the UK has delivered technical blueprints for Ukraine to use to build Scalp missile components, and is reportedly planning to visit the U.S. next month to rally Washington's support for Kyiv. •Russia isn't happy. A Kremlin spokesman accused Burnham and Britain of being "hell bent on pouring oil on a fire and plotting to prevent any kind of peace process," HAITI •Gang members attacked a church in the Port-au-Prince suburb of Kenscoff late Sunday, killing at least 47 of the displaced people who had taken refuge from exactly this kind of gang violence. •Survivors largely blamed the UN run Gang Suppression Force for failing to adequately protect civilians or even build a base in the area despite warning signs. The government belatedly pledged to reinforce security. SUDAN •During a UN Security Council meeting, U.S. envoy Massoud Boulos proposed expanding the arms embargo on Sudan's Darfur region to cover the entire country, with the aim of forcing the government and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to negotiate an end to the civil war they've been fighting for four years. •The current embargo on Darfur has been in effect since July 2004, but both the army and the RSF continue to import weapons from abroad to devastate Darfur. Boulos seems to think that a nationwide embargo would be easier to enforce, and he's probably right. •However, an expanded embargo must first pass a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote, and Russia - which has veto power over UNSC votes - has already signalled it has misgivings about a nationwide embargo. [Specifically, the Kremlin voiced concern that an expanded ban would hurt the army more than the RSF.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 August 2026 UKRAINE •It now looks like ousted defense secretary Mykhailo Fedorov miscalculated when he launched a political challenge against Pres. Zelensky by calling for wartime elections. •Fedorov's call fell flat. Ukrainians may detest the corruption scandals dogging Zelensky's government, but the president remains widely popular - though not as popular as Fedorov - and many worry about the impact elections would have on their national unity - or on Zelensky's ability to continue leading the country through a war. •Even Fedorov's greatest supporters - the protesters who were rallying for his reinstatement as defense minister - largely disagreed with his call for elections. Nearly all of them dispersed this week, ending weeks of demonstrations. •Meanwhile, Russia's strikes on Ukraine are getting deadlier because Ukraine is short of interceptors. In March, Kyiv boasted of intercepting around 70% of incoming ballistic missiles. In July, it quietly conceded that it had intercepted only 20%. •Russia knows this, and is taking advantage of Ukraine's weakness. While it usually opens its overnight attacks by sending drone swarms to distract interceptors from the missiles that follow, last night's barrage began with ballistic missiles. •Ukraine is pleading for more interceptors - especially Patriots - but there are fewer to go around because many were used up against Iranian missiles. Countries that still have some are hoarding them, although production is ramping up to build more. Russia, though, is also accelerating missile production. IRAN •U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to impose the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, and urged China - Iran's largest trading partner and the main buyer of its oil - to "get with the program." •China declined to partake. A spokesman for its leaders warned that "economic warfare" won't work, and called for the U.S. and Iran to negotiate a diplomatic solution instead. That suits Beijing well: it can continue buying cheap Iranian oil, and has little interest in crippling an Iranian regime busy antagonizing the U.S. CHINA •Hui Ka Yan, the billionaire founder of China's disgraced property giant, Evergrande, was sentenced to life in prison and ordered to forfeit all of his personal assets to the state. •He reportedly pleaded guilty to the state's fraud charges against him back in April - 2.5 years after he suddenly disappeared from public life, and nearly five years after Evergrande spectacularly collapsed under $300 billion in debt. That collapse exposed cracks in China's property sector that are still weighing on the economy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Oct COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tanzania votes for president on Wednesday, but the ruling CCM party has already assured victory for its incumbent, Samia Suluhu Hassan. More on that below. •Pres. Trump began a six-day trip to Southeast Asia yesterday, and already has a peace agreement - between Cambodia and Thailand - and several trade deals to show for it. •Trump will also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit starting Friday in South Korea, but the conference itself is less of a focus than Trump's planned meeting on its sidelines with China's Pres. Xi on Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,274 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,963/ton •Ethereum: $4,168 •Gold: $4,045/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.86/barrel •Zinc: $3,026/ton ARGENTINA •Pres. Milei's party won over 40% of the vote in yesterday's legislative poll, handing Milei a resounding mandate for his austerity programs. The results also give Milei numerical license to pursue tough reforms: he now has enough legislative support to block his vetoes from being overturned. TANZANIA •Tanzania's ruling CCM party has engaged in some brazen lawfare to ensure that Pres. Samia Suluhu Hassan, who inherited the presidency after her predecessor died in 2021, will win Wednesday's presidential election. •The two main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from running - lest voters see through CCM's questionable logic that the best way to tackle the country's festering economic challenges is to reelect the party that has failed to address them. •Instead of implementing policies to arrest rising poverty and inequality, Hassan's government has spent recent months arresting its critics. Dozens of opposition figures - and even outspoken CCM reformers - have disappeared, and authorities seem (justifiably) afraid of mass "Gen Z" protests around the election. IVORY COAST •Early results show that Ivory Coast's Pres. Alassane Ouattara won an unconstitutional fourth term on Saturday. •That's unsurprising, as Ouattara's government banned both of his serious rivals - as well as over 50 other would've-runs - from contesting the vote. CHINA •The U.S. and China announced that they'd agreed to a framework for a trade deal, as well as what U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called a "final deal on TikTok." •That's great timing: it gives Presidents Trump and Xi two big wins to trumpet when they meet on Thursday. •Bessent said the trade deal - which is not yet final - calls for China to pause its new rare earths export controls for a year. In return, Trump would presumably delay the 100% tariff escalation he'd threatened in response to Beijing's rare earths restrictions. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said it had seized the army's Sixth Division Headquarters in El Fasher, Darfur. •There are two conflicting narratives on the significance of the RSF's pronouncement. •The first - which the army and its backers would prefer to believe - is that the base was unoccupied at the time it was "captured" - and not worth defending anyway, since the army still solidly controls the main prize of the long-besieged city of El Fasher. •The second - which the RSF optimistically promotes - is that the fallen headquarters was the last major bastion of army control in western Sudan, so its capture will solidify the RSF's grip on western Darfur. That would also boost the odds of a long-term stalemate splitting Sudan in two, with an army-run east and an RSF-controlled west. •As always, reality surely lies somewhere between the extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 July COMING UP THIS WEEK •Senior officials from BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and the six non-founding countries admitted to the club later but excluded from its acronym - met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin - had more important things to do and sent representatives in their stead. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the White House today, marking his third visit since January. Pres. Trump expressed hope that his meeting with Netanyahu could help finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal in the next week. •Trump is also meeting the leaders of five African countries - Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal - this week. Trade will be on the agenda: all five have significant untapped deposits of various natural resources but trade little with the U.S. •Wednesday is the postponed deadline for Pres. Trump's new tariffs to go into effect. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted that the deadline could be extended again to allow more time to secure bilateral trade deals. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,590/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,666 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,865/ton •Ethereum: $2,563 •Gold: $3,303/toz •Lead: $2,059/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,724/ton GAZA •Israel and Hamas both remained noncommittal but cautiously optimistic about the Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated (and U.S.-backed) ceasefire proposal currently on the table. •The terms of that proposal are still hazy, but early reports suggest it would provide for a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in three separate batches (and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners) •Israel and Hamas would then start "proximity talks" - negotiations to hammer out the details - "as soon as possible," according to an Israeli diplomat. AFGHANISTAN •Russia became the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government, nearly four years after it regained control of the country. •Russia's foreign ministry said it looked forward to "productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields" - which probably do not include strengthening democratic or human rights protections. VENEZUELA •Venezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week. •Though the plant opened a day before Venezuela's independence day (July 5), it was not exactly an independent endeavor: it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec. IRAN •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war with Israel to celebrate the Shia holiday of Ashura. •Khamenei hid out in a bunker during the war as Pres. Trump mused about assassinating him. There was little doubt that he had survived, but his supporters were nonetheless glad to see him alive and well. •Separately, the NYT wrote that Iran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities at the end of the brief war, but failed to gain much traction. Russia, of course, leapt at the chance to criticize the U.S. for "unprovoked act of aggression," but China merely called for "restraint," and Brazil stayed out of it. 1/2
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