Joe Biden Dossier | Off Leash Intel

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President Trump accused China of obtaining voter files concerning about 220 million Americans and using them to favor Joe Biden in the 2020 election. China denied ever interfering in U.S. presidential elections.

Unverified development · updated through 2026-07-17

Latest directly linked development

July 17, 2026United States and ChinaUnverified

Trump accused China of stealing voter files and influencing the 2020 election

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Joe Biden dossier

Joe Biden linked geography

16 mapped developments across 6 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.

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Strike killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza

An Israeli strike killed seven World Central Kitchen workers. José Andrés as alleging the marked convoy was targeted systematically, cites criticism from President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and quotes Israel’s military chief describing the strike as a misidentification and mistake.

Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.

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Chronology

Mention timeline

July 17, 2026
Ukraine’s military leadership, regional U.S.-Iran strikes, and election-security allegations
Off Leash update 17 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing. •Fedorov spoke out against Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, accusing the commander in chief of "blocking all of our initiatives" and complaining that "instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically...hefigured out how to split the country." •Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed over Federov's efforts to modernize the military, despite the success of innovations like drone technology that he introduced. Protesters are now calling for Syrskyi to be removed instead. IRAN •U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria. •Iran said the Syrian strike on a U.S. special operations command center in al Tanf was in retaliation for U.S. strikes that killed Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. There were no U.S. casualties; the U.S. withdrew troops from al Tanf in February (probably at Pres. al Sharaa's request: al Sharaa doesn't want to get involved in the U.S.-Iran war). CHINA •In a televised address, Pres. Trump accused China of stealing voter files on about 220 million Americans and using them to influence the 2020 election in Joe Biden's favor. China vehemently denied Trump's claim, saying it "has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S." •Shortly after Trump's address, China's leader, Xi Jinping, struck a much more friendly tone at the AI conference he's hosting in Shanghai: "With AI advancing at a staggering speed, we must ensure its development is for positive, for good, and for humanity." VENEZUELA •A CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012. •The report cautioned that there was no definitive evidence that the Maduro regime pulled off "large-scale electronic fraud" this way (Nicolas Maduro had other ways of rigging elections in his favor, like bullying the opposition out of challenging him in polls). It also clarified that there was no evidence that Maduro's regime had any ability to influence elections in other countries using Smartmatic machines.
beneficiary of the claimed Chinese interference in the 2020 U.S. election1 direct event link
Open source report
January 23, 2025
Houthi moves and European defense warnings
Off Leash update 23 Jan Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader - a ship they hijacked at the beginning of their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping lanes in Nov. 2023 - citing "coordination with the Hamas movement." The Houthis had conditioned the crew's release upon a ceasefire in Gaza, and made good on that pledge by freeing them on Day 4 of the ceasefire. •The Houthis have also pledged to scale back their Red Sea attacks to focus on Israeli-linked ships, but - as I noted on Monday - many analysts are skeptical that they'd relinquish the lucrative business of selling safe passage guarantees that blossomed because of their attacks on vessels that haven't paid up. •Unrelatedly, Pres. Trump signed an executive order re-designating the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Trump had designated the Houthis a FTO - and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group - in his first term, but ex-Pres. Biden lifted both designations to facilitate humanitarian aid flows to Yemen. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky spoke at Davos yesterday with a warning that Pres. Trump's "America First" priorities will leave a geopolitical leadership gap, and called on European Union (EU) leaders to fill it: "Europe needs to compete for the top spot in priorities, alliances and technological development." Russia •European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas delivered a similar message at the European Defense Agency, warning that "Russia could test the EU's readiness to defend itself in three to five years" and calling on the EU to spend more on defense and "prepare for the worst." •Kallas pointed out that Russia currently spends 9% of its GDP on defense - compared to a collective EU average of 1.9% - and is far better equipped than the EU for a further military buildup upon escalation. She noted, for example, that Russia can produce more weapons and ammunition in three months than the EU's 27 countries can produce collectively in 12 months, and called for EU countries to earmark more for defense. 1/2
Former U.S. president said to have lifted earlier Houthi terrorism designations1 direct event link
Open source report
December 2, 2024
Syria, Lobito Corridor and Taiwan Transit Lead Dec. 2 Off Leash Update
Off Leash update 2 DEC Coming Up This Week •The UN Convention to Combat Desertification meets in Riyadh today through Dec. 13. •Pres. Biden is in Angola today through Wednesday for what will likely be his last presidential trip abroad. His visit will celebrate the Lobito Corridor - a $1 billion railway built with U.S. support to expand American access to Chinese-dominated critical minerals like Congolese cobalt. •Ghana goes to the polls on Saturday. Former president John Dramani Mahama is favored to win a fresh (non-consecutive) term. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,594/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,011/ton •Gold: $2,637/toz •Lead: $2,071/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.16/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.60/barrel •Zinc: $3,103/ton Syria •Syrian rebels continued to gain ground in Aleppo, capturing its airport and military academy. They now control an estimated half of the city and are encroaching on the outskirts of nearby Hama. •The attacks caught Syrian forces off-guard and they quickly pulled out of Aleppo. Syrian and Russian warplanes are retaliating with an assault on rebel positions in and around the opposition stronghold of Idlib. •Some analysts think Turkey's Pres. Erdogan incited the ongoing uprising to take advantage of an opportunity to gain ground against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) while Pres. Assad's backers are distracted abroad (Russia in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies by wars with Israel). •I wrote last week that one of the main rebel groups in the coalition fighting over Aleppo and Hama - Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) - is aligned with Al Qaeda, but that's inaccurate. Rather, one of HTS's precursors - Nusrah Front - was aligned with Al Qaeda, but severed ties over strategic disagreements in 2016 - one year before it merged with other anti-Assad groups to form HTS. •HTS retains Al Qaeda's Salafi-jihadist ideology, however, and several countries - including the U.S., EU, and Russia - designate HTS a terrorist group. (Turkey does, too, but still backs HTS's coalition partners when they fight the SDF and other Kurds). China •Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te left Saturday for his first international trip as president. He'll visit three of the 12 countries that still officially recognize Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. •En route - at least geopolitically, though certainly not geographically - Lai will stop over in Hawaii to "make some visits" and "meet with old friends" - i.e., hold closed-door meetings with think tanks, pro-Taiwan expats, and perhaps even current U.S. officials. •It's become customary for Taiwanese presidents to jab at China by paying semi-official visits to the U.S., but Lai's visit to Hawaii isn't quite as provocative as his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's visits to Los Angeles and New York. Nonetheless, it will irritate China, which analysts expect will retaliate with new military drills around Taiwan while Lai is away. Ukraine •In an interview with Sky News, Pres. Zelensky proposed an unlikely solution to end the war: he said Ukraine could agree to a truce if areas now under Ukrainian control were placed "under the NATO umbrella" with negotiations over areas now under Russian control to follow later. •That's not going to happen: Pres. Putin would reject the idea, and NATO isn't unanimously excited about welcoming any part of Ukraine under its umbrella. Mexico •The NYT profiled an unusual tactic Mexico's cartels are using to build their fentanyl empires: they're recruiting talented university chemistry students to add scientific know-how that improves synthetic drug production, Breaking Bad-style. One professor suspects some students are only enrolling in his chemistry classes to learn how to synthesize drugs - and not for the joy of studying chemistry. Sahel 1/2
U.S. president visiting Angola and promoting the Lobito Corridor1 direct event link
Open source report
November 27, 2024
Lebanon ceasefire begins amid political unrest in Venezuela, Mozambique and Pakistan
Off Leash update 27 Nov 2024 Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving to you all America! We stand on the shoulders of giants and must care wisely for our Republic. Hezbollah •Israel's cabinet approved a deal for a "permanent cessation of hostilities" with Hezbollah yesterday, and it went into effect at 4 am local time. •As early reports suggested, the truce gives Israel 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, handing control of those areas to the Lebanese military, which will be responsible for ensuring Hezbollah doesn't return to the border regions (as it did quickly after the failed 2006 peace agreement). •Turkey called on Israel to pay Lebanon reparations for the damage Israeli airstrikes inflicted during the campaign. The World Bank estimated that the three-month campaign caused Lebanon $8.5 billion in damage and losses. However, Israel has no obligation to pay - and probably won't. •Some - including Pres. Biden - were hopeful that Hezbollah's decision to make peace with Israel will galvanize (or cow) Hamas into a similar agreement, but that doesn't seem likely: neither Hamas nor Israel has shown any inclination to deescalate. China •The Financial Times (FT) reported that China's Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, is being investigated for corruption. Dong is the third Chinese Defense Minister in a row to face corruption allegations. •Analysts think the investigation is a sign that Pres. Xi is expanding his crackdown on corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Some further surmised that the inquiries - and the fact that they keep digging up dirt on Xi's handpicked top brass - could shake Xi's confidence in his military, which could alter his timeline and ambitions on Beijing's claim to Taiwan. •China dismissed the FT report about Dong as "shadow chasing," but there have been other signs that Dong's clout is diminished: for example, he was recently skipped over for a widely-expected appointment to the Central Military Commission that runs the PLA. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's government announced yet another investigation into alleged "crimes of treason against the country" by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. •Maduro blames Machado for inspiring the U.S. to slap sanctions on him and his cronies, but all she really did was organize a way to expose Maduro's election theft by collecting true vote tallies that confirmed he lost the election. Mozambique •After weeks of trying to brush post-election protests under the rug, Pres. Nyusi acknowledged an impasse and offered to meet opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane for talks on election results Mondlane has questioned. Mondlane refused to attend in person but offered to talk virtually - if the ruling Frelimo party agrees to that and his other demands. •Some minor opposition parties did attend talks with Frelimo, but the meeting lost steam quickly without a quorum. •Meanwhile, protests flared back up after police violently broke up a pro-Mondlane rally. Netizens were particularly aghast at a widely-shared video of an armored police vehicle running down an unarmed protester earlier today. Pakistan •Supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan ended their demonstrations demanding his release - and the dissolution of the government that convicted him - after police used force to disrupt the rallies. At least six - including both police and demonstrators - died in the melee.
U.S. president described as hoping the Lebanon agreement could encourage an Israel-Hamas deal.1 direct event link
Open source report
October 15, 2024
Tensions across the Middle East, East Asia, Russia and Venezuela
Off Leash update. 15 October Iran •According to a Washington Post report, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave Pres. Biden his word that Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear facilities or oil assets in retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage earlier this month. Per WaPo, Netanyahu said Israel's retaliation would instead focus on Iranian military targets. •Oil markets believe Netanyahu - oil prices dropped as fears of a supply disruption eased - but that doesn't mean Israel has truly ruled out targeting nuclear or oil assets. U.S. officials don't always take Netanyahu at his word - Bob Woodward's new book recounts Biden privately calling Netanyahu a "fucking liar" in the past - and Netanyahu's own office even walked back his commitment to avoid striking nuclear or oil targets. A new statement from Netanyahu's office said the PM will consider U.S. input but make final decisions in its national interest. Gaza •Israeli strikes targeted a Hamas command center stationed near the Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza. The resulting fire killed or injured dozens of Gazans who'd taken shelter at the hospital. •Hamas often hides its command centers amidst civilians in the hope that their presence will dissuade Israeli strikes. But according to a new NYT report, Israel has also been using human shields. The NYT says Israeli troops have "regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks" like scoping out Hamas tunnels or abandoned buildings for booby-traps. North Korea •North Korea accused South Korea of flying leaflet-dropping drones over Pyongyang for a third time this month, and lashed out in a symbolic response by dramatically demolishing unused roads that once connected the two neighbors. •Kim Jong Un and his sister, Kim Yo Jong, had threatened "immediate military action" in retaliation to the alleged drone incursions, but they're unlikely to instigate anything more provocative than blowing up some cracked asphalt: Pyongyang knows better than to goad a better-armed adversary into open conflict. China •Taiwan counted a record 153 Chinese warplanes participating in the one-day "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills that Beijing launched in reaction to a provocative speech by Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te. •Taiwanese officials complained that "Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region." Russia •A new report by the Ukraine-based Kyiv School of Economics Institute estimated that almost 70% of Russia's oil is being transported by its fleet of unregistered "shadow tankers." •According to the Kyiv institute, Russia uses its shadow fleet to evade sanctions and sell oil above the $60 per barrel price cap set for it, earning it $15-60 per barrel more. Multiplied by its estimated shadow fleet volumes of up to 120 million barrels per month, that's a lucrative workaround. •The Kyiv institute also warned that the shadow tankers are usually uninsured or underinsured, and have an average age of 18 years. Several have already run aground or collided with other ships. If one were to cause a major oil spill, it's unlikely Russia - which denies any official links to the shadow fleet - would pay for cleanup. Venezuela •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, bizarrely accused Brazil's Pres. Lula and Chile's Pres. Boric of being CIA agents - because why else would they join the U.S. (and dozens of other countries) in questioning the legitimacy of Pres. Maduro's bogus claim to have won re-election? •Separately, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado made a moving audio appeal to Venezuelan soldiers to stop supporting a "regime that's on its way out" and join the opposition in forming a "new republic." •It's widely known that many Venezuelan soldiers - spanning all ranks and across all military branches - already quietly support the opposition and would defect as soon as they feel safe doing so. Appeals like Machado's may help turn the tide.
President of the United States at the time of the post1 direct event link
Open source report
October 9, 2024
Off Leash Update: Middle East escalation, Russian covert activity and Korean tensions
Off Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
U.S. president expected to speak with Netanyahu1 direct event link
Open source report
September 25, 2024
Escalation risks rise in Lebanon as China publicizes ICBM test
Off Leash update 25 Sept Middle East •As the dust settled on Israel's strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry counted at least 558 dead and 1,645 injured - including 50 women, 94 children, and some first responders. Israel said it was only targeting Hezbollah and accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields. •Israel then followed up with an airstrike on southern Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander involved in the group's rocket attacks. •Then Hezbollah lobbed a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv that Iron Dome intercepted. •Some Israeli hawks want to take advantage of a weakened Hezbollah in disarray and invade southern Lebanon now, while cooler heads - like defense minister Gallant - prefer to give Hezbollah a chance to back down and avoid escalation. •The WSJ warned that a ground invasion "could turn into a quagmire, much like the war in Gaza." Despite Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah still has a dangerous arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles; and it continues to smuggle more in. It has also had ample time to fortify a tunnel network of the sort that has bogged Israeli ground troops down in Gaza. •Thousands of people fled the southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of further escalation. Ukraine •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky told the UN Security Council "Russia must be forced into peace" and said he had formed a new "victory plan" that he planned to present to Pres. Biden imminently. •Zelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants. Venezuela •An Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents. China •China carried out a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and - unusually - announced it publicly. •The wording of the defense ministry's announcement was nothing special - it said the missile "fell into expected sea areas" and was merely part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" - but the fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes). •Separately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious. Afghanistan •Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actress Meryl Streep poetically pointed out: "Today in Kabul a female cat has more freedom than a woman. A cat may go sit on her front stoop and feel the sun on her face, she may chase a squirrel in the park... A squirrel has more rights than a girl in Afghanistan today because the public parks have been closed to women and girls by the Taliban. A bird may sing in Kabul, but a girl may not in public." •A Taliban spokesman responded that his fellow officials in fact "highly respected" women and would "never compare them to cats." Libya •A delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues). •Telegram founder Pavel Durov - who faces French criminal charges for complicity in illegal activity by users of the platform - changed his stance and agreed to cooperate with authorities. •He announced in a new Telegram post that the platform has updated its terms and privacy policy to explicitly disclose that "the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests"
U.S. president identified as the intended recipient of Zelensky’s victory plan.1 direct event link
Open source report
August 28, 2024
Off Leash Update: Election Tensions, Conflict Developments and Strategic Competition
Off Leash update 28 Aug Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition called for a fourth round of mass demonstrations at 11 am Caracas time today to demand recognition of its victory in the election that happened exactly one month ago. •Pres. Maduro refuses to give up his claim that he won the vote - and also refuses to provide proof. Meanwhile, the opposition has offered online tallies confirming its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won more than twice as many votes as Maduro (a figure aligned with exit polls). •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado attended the first three major rallies of the past month, and will likely participate today too - despite the threat of being arrested and locked up alongside thousands of Venezuelans that Maduro's goons have detained for infractions as minor as questioning election results on social media. •Separately, Maduro introduced "profound" changes to his cabinet last night. He shuffled about half of his ministers, but in a way that won't meaningfully affect policy: he rewarded diehard loyalists like VP Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV party leader Diosdado Cabello with expanded roles, and rotated some other allies between key positions. Iran •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revived long-shot hopes for new nuclear talks with the U.S. by telling his civilian government - now led by reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian - that there's "no harm" in engaging the "enemy." •Analysts interpreted Khamenei's cautious remarks as hesitant approval for Pezeshkian to proceed with early talks - but under strict red lines drawn out of distrust for "the Great Satan" (as Khamenei and his predecessor dub the U.S. - the UK and Israel are both "Little Satans"). Israel and Gaza •Israeli security forces conducted a significant drone and ground "counter-terrorism operation" in the West Bank, killing at least nine. It was one of the biggest West Bank operations in recent years. •There are conflicting reports about the circumstances of Israel's hostage rescue this week. A military spokesman said "precise intelligence" led commandos to Farhan al Qadi's location in a deep underground tunnel, but anonymous Israeli officials told the media that soldiers unexpectedly stumbled upon al Qadi - weak and unguarded - in the midst of a separate tunnel operation. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky said he was open to discussing an armistice - first with Pres. Biden and VP Harris, and then with Russia. •Zelensky indicated that Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk was part of a possible peace plan he's angling for: Ukrainian forces captured both troops and territory that can be traded back to Russia - for a price. Yemen •The Sounion tanker Yemen's Houthis set ablaze last week may be leaking some of the 1 million barrels of oil it was carrying. The Houthis have continued to intimidate and target salvage operations, prohibiting rescuers from examining the situation. China •Earlier today, leaders of Pacific Island nations approved an Australia-backed plan to establish four regional police training centers and a multinational force to respond to regional crises. •China opposed the plan and advocated against it: Beijing wants island nations to rely on it - and not Australia or its Western allies - for security. DRC •In July, Gecamines - a DRC mining parastatal - objected to the proposed sale of Chemaf's copper-cobalt mines to China's Norin Mining on the grounds that the transaction would be a "flagrant violation of the clauses of the farm-out contract between Gecamines and Chemaf" - i.e., it would recalibrate the royalties Gecamines gets from the Etoile and Mutoshi projects for doing nothing. •DRC's ministers are now standing behind Gecamines: Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba also said the deal breached Chemaf's agreements with Gecamines, and on Friday the full council of ministers recommended blocking the sale.
President of the United States1 direct event link
Open source report
August 21, 2024
Off Leash: Political and security developments across seven theaters
Off Leash update 21 August Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.
U.S. president quoted regarding Hamas’s negotiating position1 direct event link
Open source report
July 25, 2024
Off Leash Update: Diplomatic Maneuvering, Security Incidents and Energy Developments
Off Leash Update 25 July Israel •Israeli PM Netanyahu went ahead with a planned visit to the U.S., despite (or perhaps because of) news that Pres. Biden has bowed out of the November election. •Some analysts guessed Bibi would capitalize on Biden's weakened authority to make his pleas for continued U.S. support directly to Congress - which is bitterly divided on the issue. •Netanyahu probably also sought to cozy up to Biden's presumptive replacement on the Democratic ticket, VP Harris, but Harris snubbed his Congressional address to hit the campaign trail and speak at a sorority event instead. However, she'll still meet with him (and Pres. Biden) privately at the White House later this week. •Netanyahu delayed the departure of an Israeli delegation for ceasefire talks in Qatar until after his trip to Washington. North Korea •North Korea launched another fleet of trash balloons over the border, and some landed in the compound housing Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol's offices for the first time. •South Korean authorities didn't find anything hazardous or contaminating in the balloons' "payload" - just obnoxious trash sent in response to the propaganda leaflets ("political trash," in Pyongyang's view) that defectors from the North have been floating over the border. Russia •French police arrested a Russian chef suspected of links to the Russian security services on unspecified charges related to a "large-scale" plan to destabilize the Olympic Games that start this week. •It's not clear specifically what this Russian chef was cooking up, but French authorities clarified that the charges weren't related to terrorism. Some media outlets suggested he may have been part of anticipated Russian attempts to create false scares with AI-generated bomb warnings at the Olympics. Afghanistan •Chinese engineers and Taliban officials commemorated a groundbreaking on the long-delayed Aynak Copper Project southwest of Kabul. The Taliban Deputy PM for Economic Affairs said he hoped the project would make up for 16+ years of delays due to war and incompetence with "speedy work" - something the Taliban is not known for. •Short on good news stories, the Taliban also re-inaugurated the 25-km road leading to Aynak that was already officially opened about a year ago. Sudan •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia invited Sudan's warring parties to peace talks in Switzerland next month, and RSF leader Hemedti issued a statement accepting the invitation. His foe, Gen. Al-Burhan, hasn't responded to the invitation yet. Strategic Minerals •Tesla reported a 45% decline in net income for the second quarter - an even worse outcome than pessimistic analysts had predicted. Tesla has been losing its dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) market to cheaper rivals; additionally, demand for EVs has dropped as subsidy programs ended. •Separately, the UK's royals made a record profit last year, thanks largely to the Crown Estate's investment in offshore wind farms. The UK gets 17% of its electricity from offshore wind.
U.S. president scheduled to meet Netanyahu1 direct event link
Open source report
June 5, 2024
Election setbacks, Gaza diplomacy and regional security developments
Off Leash update 5 June India •India released results from its six-week election saga yesterday, and they revealed a shock decline in support for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that exit polls had failed to predict. •The BJP still won more seats than any other party, but - for the first time since it came to power in 2014 - failed to secure the 272 seats it needed for an outright majority...far fewer than the 303 votes it won in 2019 or the "400 plus" supporters had predicted for 2024 in taunting campaign chants. •The BJP already governed within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, but because the BJP alone had enough seats for a majority after the last election, it could force its platform through without outside suport - even from coalition parties. Now it may need to make more concessions to maintain the coalition's majority. •PM Modi declared that the results had "shown immense faith" in the BJP, but his critics say the BJP's loss in seats confirmed voters' frustrations with Modi's Hindu nationalism and failure to level India's vastly unequal playing field. •Investors sold Indian stocks, fearing that Modi's mandate for implementing pro-business reforms was weakened by softened electoral support. Mexico •While the BJP's stumble in Indian elections caused India's stockmarkets to fall ~6%, Mexican stock prices fell for a related-but-opposite reason: a landslide victory by left-wing President-elect Sheinbaum offers her a mandate to extend - or even expand - her populist predecessor's anti-business policies. •Sheinbaum has been opaque about her economic policy plans. Some pro-business voices still hope she'll break with Pres. AMLO's leftist programs. Gaza •Neither Israel nor Hamas has formally responded to the ceasefire proposal the U.S. tabled on Friday. •Hamas is reportedly uncomfortable that the proposal doesn't explicitly end the war, but the U.S. is urging it (indirectly, via Qatari mediators) to accept anyway - and to trust that an amenable post-war plan will then fall into place. •Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is uncomfortable agreeing to a proposal that ends the war without destroying Hamas, since some of his right-wing coalition partners have threatened to sink his government if he agrees to the current terms. •Nonetheless, the U.S. is still hoping both sides will agree. CIA Director Burns and White House Middle East envoy McGurk traveled to Qatar to advance talks. •Separately, Slovenia's parliament voted to recognize Palestinian statehood without a referendum on the question [a 60% majority of Slovenians support recognizing Palestine and only 20% oppose it, so a referendum probably would've passed anyway]. Iran •Syrian state media previously reported that Israeli airstrikes hit targets in and around the Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Now there are semi-official reports that the Israeli strikes killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander, Saeed Abyar, and 12 militants. •The IRGC’s commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, swore that Israel "will pay" and "should await a response." This response will probably be more muted than Iran's direct strikes on Israel in early April. Afghanistan •Abu Dhabi's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, warmly welcomed Taliban official Sirajuddin Haqqani, who the U.S. wants to try on terrorism charges and is the subject of a $10 million U.S. arrest bounty. Despite their friendly meeting, the UAE still doesn't recognize the Taliban government - no nations have yet. Migration •Seeking to look tough on illegal immigration ahead of November elections, Pres. Biden signed an executive order that would trigger a ban on asylum applications by illegal migrants once seven-day average migrant encounters exceed 2,500. That's a low hurdle set near the current rate, so the (temporary) ban will likely be invoked very soon.
U.S. president who issued the asylum order1 direct event link
Open source report
June 4, 2024
Off Leash Update: Coalition Strains, Strategic Competition, and Political Disruption
Off Leash Update 4 June Gaza •Two far-right members of PM Netanyahu's fragile coalition - his national security minister and finance minister - threatened to bring down his government if he accepts the ceasefire deal Pres. Biden proposed. The opposing ministers say they'll refuse any deal that lets Hamas survive as a political entity. Ukraine •On Friday, the Biden administration said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Later that day, Ukraine did just that: it used HIMARS launchers to target Belgorod Friday night, and may have also used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 yesterday. A Ukrainian official observed that the S-300 "burns beautifully." Russia •Russian bots are flooding EU voters' news feeds with disinformation ahead of this weekend's election for the regional parliament. Aside from the usual fake news about Ukraine, Russian e-trolls are churning out false stories to create skepticism about liberal EU climate policies to nudge voters to support candidates who are more open to relaxing sanctions on Russia and buying more Russian gas. Iran •Iran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped." Bagheri would know: he was a lead participant in the discussions earlier this year. Sahel •Bloomberg reported that Russia's state nuclear company, Rosatom, is negotiating with Niger's junta to acquire French mining assets in the Sahel. Niger is the world's seventh-largest uranium producer - with about 4% of global production last year - and the junta would be happy to sever more ties with the country's former colonial power (France) in favor of Russia, which has been sending Niger military support with few overt strings attached. North Korea •I should clarify yesterday's news about South Korea pulling out of its 2018 non-escalation pact with North Korea: the North already suspended its side of the deal and the South partially suspended it last year, so Seoul's latest move would only sever the thin remaining symbolic threads of the original pact. •The North is probably more upset about the threat of K-pop and real news blasting over the border than the South is about the trash-filled balloons floating over to its side. One analyst summarized Kim Jong Un's dilemma nicely: "Kim doesn't want his people to know about their relative deprivation and the quality of life in the free world. He is more afraid of [K-pop band] BTS than U.S. nukes." South Africa •South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is reportedly in talks with the Democratic Alliance (DA) about a coalition government. South Africa's stocks, bonds, and currency rose on the news that the ANC plans to work with the pro-business DA instead of a less business-friendly party like Jacob Zuma's MK. Other News •Nigerians are striking en masse to demand higher wages amidst the highest inflation levels in 28 years - caused in part by Pres. Tinubu's efforts at economic reform, which included ending disastrous fuel subsidies. Workers protesting the economically painful adjustments Tinubu's reforms have shut down the national security grid and suspended operations at major airports.
U.S. president associated with the ceasefire proposal and Ukraine weapons policy2 direct event links
Open source report
June 3, 2024
Election transitions, Gaza diplomacy and Korean tensions shape June 3 outlook
Off Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
U.S. president who publicly presented the Gaza proposal0 direct event links
Open source report
May 13, 2024
Russia Reshuffles Defense Leadership as Kharkiv Pressure Builds
Off Leash Update 13 May Coming Up This Week •Israel celebrates Yom Ha'atzmaut - its Independence Day on the Gregorian calendar - starting at sundown tonight, while Palestinians lament Nakba Day - the annual commemoration of their displacement upon Israel's independence in 1948 - on Wednesday. Both holidays will be especially charged this year as the war in Gaza presses on. •The Cannes Film Festival starts tomorrow, but strikes by freelance festival workers threaten to disrupt the soirée. •Singapore's finance minister and deputy prime minister, Lawrence Wong, will become the city-state's fourth prime minister since independence in 1965. •Next Sunday, the Dominican Republic votes in a general election. •Next Sunday is also the final day of the Premier League season. Arsenal leads Manchester City by just one point. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,530/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,700/ton •Cobalt: $27,830/ton •Copper: $10,004/ton (an almost two-year high due to supply concerns) •Gold: $2,341/toz •Lead: $2,223/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.29/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,930/ton Gaza •On Friday, the UN General Assembly voted 143-9 to adopt a resolution stating that Palestine qualifies for full membership at the UN. The vote is a symbol of global support for (eventual, theoretical) Palestinian statehood, but bears no real teeth. •Meanwhile, a ceasefire deal for Gaza still seems elusive. Pres. Biden nudged Hamas to release all remaining hostages - saying that if they did then a ceasefire would be possible - but Hamas retorted that they would "consider [that] a setback to the outcomes of the latest round of negotiations." Russia •Pres. Putin demoted his defense minister and longtime ally, Sergei Shoigu, to run the national security council instead of the military. Some analysts had suspected Shoigu was losing Putin's support when Shoigu's close aide was sacked and charged with corruption last month; this move seems to confirm Putin is turning his attention elsewhere (though Shoigu could still have some-to-significant sway over the war as head of the national security council). •Putin appointed a civilian economist, Andrei Belousov, to replace Shoigu as defense minister. A Kremlin spokesman justified the change by pointing to soaring defense spending that requires deft economic management, as well as a need for "innovation." •A former MI6 officer told The Independent that Shoigu's sacking suggests "really quite serious instability right at the heart of this regime," but other analysts believe it merely indicates the Kremlin is returning to a Cold War level of war spending and needs better budgeting to fight the long war Ukraine has turned out to be (which is more consistent with the Kremlin's rationale). •Interestingly, Putin declined the chance to sack his chief of general staff and a frequent critic of the war, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, during the shake-up: the Kremlin said Gerasimov will stay in his post. Ukraine •Russia launched a rapid new offensive into northeast Ukraine (near Kharkiv) on Friday, and Ukraine's top military commander, Gen. Syrsky, acknowledged the situation there "significantly worsened" over the weekend. Local reports suggest Russia has captured more land area per day than at almost any other point in the war. •Ukrainian defensive lines seem to be holding, although some Ukrainian commanders are blaming others: one wrote on Facebook that "the first line of fortifications and mines just didn’t exist." •On a more positive note for Ukraine, new data showed Black Sea grain and oilseed shipments have rebounded to pre-war levels. 1/2
U.S. president urging the release of remaining hostages1 direct event link
Open source report
May 10, 2024
Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and Chad
Off Leash update 10 May Gaza Pres. Netanyahu was displeased with Pres. Biden's threat to stop sending certain highly destructive weapons to Israel if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah (even though Israel appears to have toned down its ambitions for Rafah to a smaller-scale operation that probably won't cross Biden's red line) Netanyahu - who must appease hardliners - insisted Israel could (theoretically) carry out the full-scale plan alone: "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone...if necessary we will fight with our fingernails." It probably will not be necessary. Ukraine and Russia Ukrainian drones struck two oil depots and a refinery deep inside Russia over the past 24 hours: one was over 700 miles (1,100 km) inside the border. An oil expert estimated to the NYT that the attacks incapacitated over 10% of Russia's refining capacity - though given the importance of oil to Russia's war funding and foreign earnings, it'll surely be rebuilt quickly. During Pres. Xi's visit to Hungary, nationalist president Orban enthusiastically endorsed China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese plan was released to great fanfare over a year ago (Feb. 2023) but has failed to gain much traction: Hungary is the only European country to endorse it. China's promise to invest in building a BYD electric vehicle production plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orban's support. Separately, EU member states agreed to a plan to use the proceeds (e.g. interest) from Russian central bank funds frozen in European banks to augment Ukraine's defenses and fund post-war reconstruction. Those proceeds are expected to free up about €3 billion ($3.3 billion) per year. Sudan Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur. The report called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan. Sahel Chad's military ruler and incumbent interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a very predictable election after sidelining rivals - lethally in one case. The opposition cried foul.
U.S. president described as conditioning certain weapons transfers on the scale of a Rafah operation1 direct event link
Open source report
May 9, 2024
Xi’s Serbia Visit, UK-Russia Tensions, Gaza Arms Policy and Herat Attack
Off Leash Update 9 May China •Pres. Xi visited Belgrade yesterday on the 25th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Serbia, but surprised analysts by skipping a visit to the site of the errant airstrike. •Almost all Chinese officials visiting Serbia pay a visit to the site - Xi himself did on his last trip there in 2016 - so its omission from his itinerary this time was unusual. Some speculated he avoided it this time because a visit would reopen old wounds at a time when his government is trying to mend strained ties with NATO countries. •Serbia's government made Xi feel right at home by arresting dissidents ahead of his visit and ordering state workers to applaud his brief appearance with Pres. Vucic outside the Palace of Serbia. That helped avoid embarrassing protests like Xi faced during his 2016 tour of Eastern Europe. Russia •The UK accused Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) of a pattern of "malign activity" and expelled an unnamed senior Russian official who was apparently not declared to British authorities (as diplomats of his rank should be). •This latest escalation apparently began when the FSB tried to meddle with a British research group combatting the sort of disinformation Russian bots spread online. Gaza •Pres. Biden acknowledged for the first time that U.S.-supplied bombs have killed Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and warned that the U.S. would stop supplying certain big bombs and artillery shells to Israel if it launches a large-scale invasion of Rafah. •This isn't the end of U.S. support for Israel, though: the U.S. would only (continue to) withhold the deadliest offensive weapons, and would continue to send Israel Iron Dome rocket interceptors and other defensive munitions. •In any case, Israel seems to have already scaled back its invasion plans for Rafah to a more "limited" operation that's less likely to jeopardize ongoing ceasefire talks - or U.S. weapons shipments. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack on a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan. Like most of IS's attacks in Afghanistan, this one targeted the Shia minority.
U.S. president signaling conditions on offensive weapons transfers1 direct event link
Open source report
April 26, 2024
Gaza, Haiti and Sahel developments lead 26 April update
Off Leash Update 26 April Gaza •The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began building a floating pier off the coast of Gaza to facilitate aid deliveries by circumventing delays delivering aid by land routes. It will take a few weeks to finish the pier, which will be able to receive up to two million meals per day. •The additional food aid will be most welcome in northern Gaza, where the UN's Integrated Food Security Phase Classification initiative is anticipating only its third ever classified famine in Gaza by late May (the first two were in 2011 in parts of Somalia, and in 2017 in South Sudan). •Gazan health officials said they discovered more bodies in a mass grave on the site of a hospital, bringing the total number of bodies unearthed there to 392. Israeli officials rejected suggestions that Israeli troops were responsible for the victims' deaths. •Separately, local media reported that Israel is now willing to accept the release of just 20 hostages - down from 40 - in exchange for a temporary ceasefire deal. The report is unconfirmed, and other citations say 33 is the minimum number of hostages Israel would accept for a deal. •Meanwhile, Pres. Biden and 17 other world leaders are trying a very different approach: asking Hamas nicely to release all remaining hostages. Haiti •Haiti installed a new transitional council, and PM Henry formally resigned in absentia - as he'd promised to do once the council was in place. •The gunshots that rang out in the background as council members took their oaths of office offered a preview of the tough task that lies ahead of them: the council has a deadline of February 2026 to organize elections and inaugurate a new president, but rampant gang violence threatens to derail their work. Sahel •The U.S. is withdrawing the ~75 Army Special Operations troops it has stationed in Chad after Chad's government asked them to leave. •The U.S. and Chad were in the process of renegotiating their security cooperation terms - and U.S. officials still hold out hope that talks will continue on May 6 - but Chad wanted better terms than the U.S. could apparently offer it. •Russia has been making rival security deals with other Sahel countries (including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso) lately, and may be talking to Chad now, too. Iran •Iran sentenced Toomaj Salehi - a rebellious rapper - to death for "spreading corruption on earth" by making music that celebrated antigovernment protests. Salehi plans to appeal. Yemen •A UK Royal Navy destroyer downed a Houthi ballistic missile targeting a commercial ship in the Red Sea, marking the first time since the Gulf War that a UK ship-launched anti-air missile successfully intercepted an adversary's missile mid-air. South Sudan •According to Bloomberg, a little-known (and poorly acronymed) Emirati company - Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBKDOP) - struck a deal to lend South Sudan 12 billion euros ($12.9 billion) in exchange for future oil production. •The huge size of the deal means HBKDOP could receive essentially all of South Sudan's oil flows as repayments. Other News •Extreme rains caused heavy flooding in east Africa, and at least 200 people have died in the deluge. Tanzania, Kenya, and Burundi were the hardest hit.
U.S. president reported to have called for hostage releases1 direct event link
Open source report
April 24, 2024
Regional conflict, foreign aid and security policy shifts
Off Leash update 24 April Iran and Israel •Israeli officials told the NYT they contemplated a broader strike on Iran in return for Iran's (mostly harmlessly intercepted) attempted strikes inside Israel, but settled for a limited strike on Isfahan because of diplomatic pressure from allies to avoid further escalation. •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei seemed happy to let Israel have the last word with the Isfahan strike: at a meeting of senior officials, Khamenei brushed off the damage it did: "Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance." •Meanwhile, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, launched drone attacks into northern Israel yesterday as Jewish families began the Passover holiday. All drones were intercepted. •Hezbollah's attempted Passover attack was probably a reprisal for an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon that killed Hussein Ali Azkul - who Israel called "a significant terrorist operative" - on Monday. Ukraine •Pres. Biden promised Pres. Zelensky that the U.S. weapons funded in the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan support bill the Senate approved late last night will arrive "quickly." Ukraine will be eager to get them: its military is already suffering setbacks due to delays in U.S. funding. China •The Senate's foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan also included a provision obligating ByteDance - the Chinese company that owns TikTok - to sell the app to a non-Chinese owner or shut it down in the U.S. •ByteDance's shareholders - which include the Chinese government - seem averse to divesting the app, so it will likely face a ban. Russia •Russian investigators detained former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes "on a particularly large scale" in connection with construction projects he managed in Mariupol, Ukraine. •Russia doesn't usually censure senior officials for corruption [perhaps because bribery is so endemic among senior ranks that no hands are clean enough to throw the first stone] and Ivanov is a close ally of powerful defense minister Sergey Shoigu, who should have been able to shield him from scrutiny. •The fact that Shoigu didn't step in led some to speculate that Ivanov's real offense was something much more grave than graft - like treason (though the Kremlin denied it). Venezuela •Venezuela's oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, told Reuters that his ministry is exploring cryptocurrencies as a way to receive payments for oil sales once U.S. sanctions sink back in. •One cryptocurrency that Venezuela won't be accepting is the Petro (PTR): Pres. Maduro's Patria Platform gave up on that idea earlier this year after a corruption scandal. North Korea •North Korea launched more short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on Monday, and analysts are guessing it could try to launch a satellite into orbit tomorrow on the anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army. Other News •After two years of heated debate, the UK's parliament finally passed a bill that allows asylum-seekers to be deported to Rwanda. Human rights activists are united with some fiscal conservatives against the program, which would cost an estimated £1.8 million ($2.2 million) per deportee for the first 300 people expelled. Flights would start in July, but will probably be delayed or blocked by legal challenges. •Voters in Ecuador approved a referendum that gives Pres. Noboa even more authority to fight drug gangs. Noboa has already taken a hard stance against the gangs - he deployed the military against them in January - and voters apparently support it: nine of its 11 proposals look likely to pass once all votes are counted.
U.S. president reported to have promised rapid weapons deliveries to Ukraine.1 direct event link
Open source report
April 18, 2024
Israel-Iran tensions, Qatar mediation, Venezuela sanctions and U.S.-China measures
Off Leash Update 18 April Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.
U.S. president associated with the planned steel tariffs2 direct event links
Open source report
April 11, 2024
Developments spanning Gaza negotiations and elections across three continents
Off Leash 11 April Gaza Israel's latest proposal asked Hamas to release elderly, ill, and female hostages - including five female soldiers - in return for a temporary ceasefire and release of Palestinian prisoners, but Hamas responded to tell negotiators it hasn't been able to locate 40 hostages fitting the bill. That admission raised concerns that more of the hostages than previously thought may have died. [Although that's not certain: Hamas officials also suggested it's just hard to locate dispersed hostages in the fog of war, and asked for a ceasefire to gather them from other militant groups and even families some are reported to be quartered with]. Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The elder Haniyeh lives in exile in Qatar, but Israel says all three of his sons were Hamas military operatives. Their father was defiant: "The enemy is delusional if it thinks that by killing my children, we will change our positions. We shall not give in, no matter the sacrifices." While Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in Gaza, it has mostly reduced its ground presence and continues to boost aid flows into the strip. Defense minister Gallant announced plans to "flood Gaza with aid" through a new land crossing in the north that will shorten the distance aid trucks travel between Ashdod port and Gaza. China Canadian PM Trudeau testified at a government hearing about foreign interference, saying China tried to interfere in Canada's last two elections - although not in a way that affected the results, and probably not favoring one party over another. Venezuela Colombia's Pres. Petro said he met with Venezuela's opposition in Caracas, but he actually only met with Socialist Party-approved "opposition" candidate Manuel Rosales, and he did so with Pres. Maduro's approval. [Some analysts think Rosales was allowed to join the ballot for July's election because his candidacy lends a veneer of legitimacy to the rigged poll without posing a real threat to Maduro's re-election.] Petro's team didn't reach out to the united opposition under Maria Corina Machado - and Maduro probably wouldn't have let Petro meet any real opposition figures. Petro is trying to stay in Maduro's good graces because he wants to sign a deal that would see Colombia's Ecopetrol produce Venezuelan oil and gas. Afghanistan Reclusive Taliban leader Hibatullah Akundzada gave a rare public address during Eid prayers yesterday and doubled down on his government's Byzantine policies: "If anyone has any issues with us, we are open to resolving them, but we will never compromise on our principles or Islam. At the same time, we expect that Islam will not be disrespected. I will not take even a step away from the Islamic law." [Islamic law, in his view, recently led to the repeal of a ban on publicly stoning women to death for adultery - although no stonings have been carried out since the ban was repealed last month.] Other News Pres. Biden hosted an elaborate dinner for Japanese PM Fumio Kishida that was attended by Apple's Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, and Chase's Jamie Dimon. During meetings earlier in the day, the U.S. and Japan agreed to join three-way military exercise with Australia to counter China's growing influence in the Pacific. South Korea's opposition won a surprise landslide in yesterday's parliamentary elections, humbling Pres. Yoon and his conservative party and complicating their plans to pass legislation for the three years left in Yoon's term. PM Han Dong-hoon offered to resign. A South African court ruled that former president Jacob Zuma will be allowed to run for parliament under the newly-formed MK party on May 29 - despite a criminal conviction for refusing to cooperate with a graft investigation.
U.S. president who hosted the Japanese prime minister1 direct event link
Open source report
April 10, 2024
Iranian arms claims, Rafah uncertainty and eastern DRC attack lead 10 April brief
Off Leash 10 April Gaza The NYT exposed a covert Iranian operation to flood the West Bank with smuggled weapons - mostly small arms - to foment chaos and create problems for Israel. Iranian officials told the Times the operation isn't focused on a particular armed group - rather, it aims to get guns into as many Palestinian hands as possible. Separately, Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, contradicted his boss's earlier assertion that a date had been set for the ground invasion of Rafah to begin. Gallant told U.S. SecDef Austin that the date has not yet been decided. The U.S. and other countries are still urging Israel to use restraint and forge a peace deal instead of invading Rafah, and their pleas are becoming sharper and more direct. For example, yesterday Pres. Biden criticized PM Netanyahu's approach to Gaza in the harshest terms he's used yet, calling it a "mistake." China Fitch downgraded its long-term outlook for China's sovereign debt from stable to negative based on analysts' expectations that the government will boost its borrowing in an effort to jump start economic growth. Beijing called the downgrade a "pity" and insisted the local "hidden" debts Fitch was especially concerned about are manageable. Russia Melting snow is causing devastating floods along Russia's Ural river, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their homes. The Ural floods every year as snow melts off the Ural mountains, but this year's floods are already the worst in decades - and haven't even peaked yet. Some Russians affected by the floods blamed Pres. Putin for ignoring their crisis and staged a rare protest to demand more government help. Separately, Russia's fun-hating republic of Chechnya extinguished another spark of joy by banning dance music that's either too fast (over 116 beats per minute) or too slow (under 80 beats per minute). Chechen musicians have until June 1 to re-record non-compliant tunes within the legal tempo range so they "conform to the Chechen mentality and sense of rhythm." Libya The U.S. State Department clarified recent reports about an American private security contractor - Amentum - training Libyan armed groups: the State Department says Amentum is only offering "classroom training" - not military training - and is conducting its sessions "outside of Libya." DRC Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian troops from the South African Development Community force fighting M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The blasts occurred at the same camp near Goma where two South African soldiers were killed in a similar attack in February. Other News A group of 2,000 elderly Swiss women won a landmark case at the European Court of Human Rights: the court ruled that Swiss policymakers violated the women's human rights by failing to implement adequate climate policies to prevent adverse health outcomes. The case sets a precedent for Europeans to sue their countries for better climate policies. Conservative Swiss media called the ruling "absurd." (EP note. Correct that is completely absurd!)
U.S. president pressing Israel over its Gaza approach1 direct event link
Open source report
April 5, 2024
U.S. Pressures Israel on Gaza as Regional and Security Risks Persist
Off Leash 6 April Gaza and Israel Presidents Biden and Netanyahu spoke by phone yesterday, and Biden warned Netanyahu that continued U.S. support for Israel's war in Gaza "will be determined by" what steps Israel takes to avoid killing civilians and alleviate humanitarian suffering. Soon after their call - and probably encouraged by it - Israel agreed to open new direct aid routes and increase aid deliveries from Jordan. Biden also assured Netanyahu during their call that Israel has America's support in the face of Iran's threats to retaliate for Israeli strikes that killed three generals in Damascus last week. The Israeli public is worried about direct Iranian reprisals, but Israeli officials are reassuring them that there's no need to stock up on wartime supplies like generators, food, and cash: "people can relax." That's probably correct, because Iran's retaliation would likely be as calculated as Israel's strike was: Tehran has little interest in open war with Israel. Iran Jaish al-Adl - a Baloch separatist terrorist group alternately known as Jundullah - claimed responsibility for two separate attacks in the Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces of Iran. Militants reportedly tried to take hostages and capture Iranian military bases in both fights, and several suicide bombers detonated during the nearly 17-hour gun battle that killed at least 10 security personnel and 18 militants. Jundallah said its goal in the attacks was to stop Iran's government from further developing the Sunni-heavy part of the Persian Gulf coast known as Makan into a more Shia-dominated area like the rest of the country. Libya The Irish Times reported that an Irish company called Irish Training Solutions (ITS) is using former Irish soldiers to train Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army's (LNA's) 166 Infantry Brigade in the east of the country. The Times called ITS's arrangement with the LNA "an apparent breach of a UN arms embargo," but it's not clear that it is actually is: the UN rules are complicated, and ITS doesn't seem to be flagrantly breaking them by sending weapons - just uniforms, equipment, and assistance. Venezuela The U.S. denied Pres. Maduro's allegations that it runs - or has future plans to run - "secret military bases" in the Guyanese region Venezuela disputes and calls Essequibo. The claim Maduro made about secret U.S. bases on Wednesday was probably intended to rile up his supporters: that's the same day he signed off on results of the December referendum he organized to "officially" lay claim to Essequibo.
U.S. president as speaking with Netanyahu3 direct event links
Open source report
April 5, 2024
Ukraine drone adaptation, Gaza aid-worker strike and regional political tensions
Off Leash 4 April Ukraine Videos of the aftermath of Ukraine's drone strike deep inside Russia's Tatarstan showed that the weapon was possibly delivered by a converted $90,000 Aeroprakt A-22 single-propeller sport plane (or perhaps two of them) modified for the task. Analysts noted that the high-bank-for-buck converted drone is extremely scalable, so we could see Ukraine use more of them in the near future. Russia Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu held an unusual call with his French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, yesterday. Shoigu reportedly warned Lecornu against deploying French troops to Ukraine [even though France is nowhere close to sending troops, and the idea was just a remote future possibility Pres. Macron raised last month without EU backing]. Shoigu also told Lecornu that Russia is ready to take part in peace talks, but its ongoing escalations on the battlefield suggest otherwise. Gaza Global media reported widespread condemnation of the Israeli strike that killed seven food aid workers from celebrity chef José Andrés's World Central Kitchen NGO. Andrés himself angrily accused Israel of targeting a marked humanitarian convoy "systematically, car by car." Pres. Biden said he was "outraged and heartbroken" by the strike, and U.S. SecDef Austin also criticized it with a warning that it raised concerns about Israel's ability to differentiate civilians and humanitarian personnel from militant targets if and when it embarks on a looming ground offensive in Rafah. Israel's military chief of staff offered as much of an apology as we'll probably ever hear from an Israeli official at his rank over the strike: "It was a mistake that followed a misidentification, at night during the war in a very complex condition. It shouldn’t have happened." China TSMC's semiconductor factories appear to have withstood the earthquake that hit Taiwan on Wednesday with no major damage, and are already nearly back to normal production rates. Since TSMC makes around 90% of the world's advanced chips, its resilience in an earthquake was good news for chipmaking, which has been operating near peak capacity since rebounding from COVID-induced supply chain problems. Venezuela Pres. Maduro accused the U.S. of building "secret military bases" in the large, oil-rich chunk of Guyana that Veneuzela disputes and calls Essequibo. Maduro may be using such provocative escalation to stir up fear and justify his plans to "defend" the disputed region as Venezuela's own. Other News The speaker of South Africa's parliament tendered her resignation amidst an investigation into allegations that she took bribes in exchange for awarding defense contracts while she was defense minister. Despite her resignation and the criminal charges that followed it, she denies wrongdoing.
U.S. president quoted condemning the Gaza strike1 direct event link
Open source report
April 4, 2024
U.S.–China diplomacy, Ukraine mobilization and regional security developments
Off Leash 3 April update China Presidents Biden and Xi held a rare phone call yesterday to try to improve mounting tensions between the two superpowers they lead. The White House said Biden addressed China's support for Russia in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, TikTok, and North Korean missiles; Beijing said Xi brought up economic tensions and U.S. support for Taiwan. Following the Xi-Biden call, the U.S. announced that Treasury Secretary Yellen and SecState Blinken will visit China in the coming weeks to follow up on the presidents' discussions. Separately, Taiwan suffered its biggest earthquake in 25 years, killing at least nine people and disrupting chipmaking at several of TSMC's factories. Fifty people are still missing. Ukraine After initially resisting calls to lower Ukraine's military draft age, Pres. Zelensky finally gave in and signed a bill lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. That should help Ukraine recruit more of the 500,000 additional soldiers Zelensky estimated would be needed to round out Ukrainian forces so that war-weary soldiers can be rotated from the front lines, where the average age is 43. An Economist article pasted below describes why this recruitment push is necessary for Ukraine to defend against an expected Russian spring offensive. Separately, NATO foreign ministers are meeting on the sidelines of alliance anniversary celebrations in Brussels this week to discuss a proposal for a €100 billion ($108 billion) five-year military support plan for Ukraine. Even if they do align on a deal, it likely won't be finalized until July when they meet again in Washington. Russia U.S. officials confirmed that the CIA alerted Russia about intelligence suggesting that Islamic State-Khorasan terrorists specifically planned to target Crocus City Hall - which we now know was indeed their target on March 22. Russia dismissed the American warnings as "blackmail" - perhaps because the first warnings in early March suggested the attack was imminent within days. Moscow may have let its guard down when nothing happened immediately after the first warnings. Sudan Sudan's government was offended by what it called "unprofessional reporting and harmful publications" by Saudi and Emirati media outlets and suspended several of them, including Saudi's Al Arabiya and Al Hadath and UAE's Sky News Arabia. Sudan's leaders have long accused the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces it's fighting against, so the Sky News Arabia ban made sense. However, the ban on the Saudi outlets is more of a shock: both Saudi broadcasters expressed "surprise" at the news.
U.S. president and participant in the call with Xi Jinping1 direct event link
Open source report

Identity

Indexed identity

Antony BlinkenU.S. secretary of state involved in Gaza ceasefire diplomacy
Antony BlinkenU.S. secretary of state scheduled to visit China
AustraliaProspective participant in three-way military exercises
Benjamin NetanyahuPrime minister of Israel
Benjamin NetanyahuIsraeli prime minister expected to discuss response plans with the U.S. president
Benjamin NetanyahuIsraeli prime minister conducting the U.S. visit
Benjamin NetanyahuPrime minister of Israel and leader of the governing coalition discussed in the post
Benjamin NetanyahuIsraeli leader quoted as saying Israel could fight alone if necessary
Benjamin NetanyahuIsraeli prime minister whose Gaza policy faced reported U.S. criticism
Benjamin NetanyahuIsraeli leader as speaking with Biden
ChinaAccused of U.S. election interference and reported to have denied the allegation
ChinaState accused in the post of attempting to interfere in Canadian elections
Donald TrumpU.S. president reported to have accused China of election interference
Donald TrumpU.S. president reported to have ordered the Houthis’ FTO redesignation
Fumio KishidaJapanese prime minister visiting the United States
Government of UkraineRecipient and reported user of U.S.-supplied weapons
HamasPalestinian armed group assessed in the post as unlikely to de-escalate with Israel.
HamasPalestinian armed and political organization involved in ceasefire negotiations
HamasPalestinian political and armed organization central to the ceasefire dispute
HamasPalestinian armed group participating in hostage and ceasefire negotiations
HamasHolder of hostages and party addressed by world leaders
HezbollahLebanese armed group party to the cessation of hostilities.
HouthisYemeni armed movement accused in the post of hijacking the Galaxy Leader and attacking Red Sea shipping
IranState that launched missile strikes and warned Gulf governments against facilitating retaliation
IranState threatening retaliation for the Damascus strike
IsraelState considering retaliation against Iran and conducting a strike in Damascus
IsraelBelligerent in the Gaza conflict and potential target of Iranian retaliation
IsraelBelligerent considering military operations in Rafah
Israelconducted a limited strike on Isfahan and a separate strike in southern Lebanon.
Israel’s finance ministerCoalition member reported to oppose the proposed Gaza ceasefire
Israel’s national security ministerCoalition member reported to oppose the proposed Gaza ceasefire
Janet YellenU.S. Treasury secretary scheduled to visit China
Joe Bidenbeneficiary of the claimed Chinese interference in the 2020 U.S. election
Joe BidenFormer U.S. president said to have lifted earlier Houthi terrorism designations
Joe BidenU.S. president visiting Angola and promoting the Lobito Corridor
Joe BidenU.S. president described as hoping the Lebanon agreement could encourage an Israel-Hamas deal.
Joe BidenPresident of the United States at the time of the post
Joe BidenU.S. president expected to speak with Netanyahu
Joe BidenU.S. president identified as the intended recipient of Zelensky’s victory plan.
Joe BidenPresident of the United States
Joe BidenU.S. president quoted regarding Hamas’s negotiating position
Joe BidenU.S. president scheduled to meet Netanyahu
Joe BidenU.S. president who issued the asylum order
Joe BidenU.S. president associated with the ceasefire proposal and Ukraine weapons policy
Joe BidenU.S. president who publicly presented the Gaza proposal
Joe BidenU.S. president urging the release of remaining hostages
Joe BidenU.S. president described as conditioning certain weapons transfers on the scale of a Rafah operation
Joe BidenU.S. president signaling conditions on offensive weapons transfers
Joe BidenU.S. president reported to have called for hostage releases
Joe BidenU.S. president reported to have promised rapid weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
Joe BidenU.S. president associated with the planned steel tariffs
Joe BidenU.S. president who hosted the Japanese prime minister
Joe BidenU.S. president pressing Israel over its Gaza approach
Joe BidenU.S. president as speaking with Netanyahu
Joe BidenU.S. president quoted condemning the Gaza strike
Joe BidenU.S. president and participant in the call with Xi Jinping
José AndrésWorld Central Kitchen founder who systematic targeting of the convoy
Kamala HarrisVice president of the United States
Kamala HarrisU.S. vice president scheduled to meet Netanyahu
Lloyd AustinU.S. defense secretary reported to have criticized the Gaza strike
RussiaBelligerent that Zelensky said must be forced into peace and accused of planning nuclear-plant attacks.
Volodymyr ZelenskyUkrainian president promoting a victory plan and alleging planned Russian attacks on nuclear plants.
Volodymyr ZelenskyPresident of Ukraine
Volodymyr ZelenskyUkrainian president and reported recipient of Biden’s weapons-delivery assurance.
World Central KitchenHumanitarian organization whose workers were killed in Gaza

Provenance

July 17, 2026Ukraine’s military leadership, regional U.S.-Iran strikes, and election-security allegations
January 23, 2025Houthi moves and European defense warnings
December 2, 2024Syria, Lobito Corridor and Taiwan Transit Lead Dec. 2 Off Leash Update
November 27, 2024Lebanon ceasefire begins amid political unrest in Venezuela, Mozambique and Pakistan
October 15, 2024Tensions across the Middle East, East Asia, Russia and Venezuela
October 9, 2024Off Leash Update: Middle East escalation, Russian covert activity and Korean tensions
September 25, 2024Escalation risks rise in Lebanon as China publicizes ICBM test
August 28, 2024Off Leash Update: Election Tensions, Conflict Developments and Strategic Competition
August 21, 2024Off Leash: Political and security developments across seven theaters
July 25, 2024Off Leash Update: Diplomatic Maneuvering, Security Incidents and Energy Developments
June 5, 2024Election setbacks, Gaza diplomacy and regional security developments
June 4, 2024Off Leash Update: Coalition Strains, Strategic Competition, and Political Disruption
June 3, 2024Election transitions, Gaza diplomacy and Korean tensions shape June 3 outlook
May 13, 2024Russia Reshuffles Defense Leadership as Kharkiv Pressure Builds
May 10, 2024Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and Chad
May 9, 2024Xi’s Serbia Visit, UK-Russia Tensions, Gaza Arms Policy and Herat Attack
April 26, 2024Gaza, Haiti and Sahel developments lead 26 April update
April 24, 2024Regional conflict, foreign aid and security policy shifts
April 18, 2024Israel-Iran tensions, Qatar mediation, Venezuela sanctions and U.S.-China measures
April 11, 2024Developments spanning Gaza negotiations and elections across three continents
April 10, 2024Iranian arms claims, Rafah uncertainty and eastern DRC attack lead 10 April brief
April 5, 2024U.S. Pressures Israel on Gaza as Regional and Security Risks Persist
April 5, 2024Ukraine drone adaptation, Gaza aid-worker strike and regional political tensions
April 4, 2024U.S.–China diplomacy, Ukraine mobilization and regional security developments

Coverage profile

Trump accused China of stealing voter files and influencing the 2020 election

16 linked map positions

Joe Biden linked geography

Strike killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza

Mention timeline

Ukraine’s military leadership, regional U.S.-Iran strikes, and election-security allegations

Houthi moves and European defense warnings

Syria, Lobito Corridor and Taiwan Transit Lead Dec. 2 Off Leash Update

Lebanon ceasefire begins amid political unrest in Venezuela, Mozambique and Pakistan

Tensions across the Middle East, East Asia, Russia and Venezuela

Off Leash Update: Middle East escalation, Russian covert activity and Korean tensions

Escalation risks rise in Lebanon as China publicizes ICBM test

Off Leash Update: Election Tensions, Conflict Developments and Strategic Competition

Off Leash: Political and security developments across seven theaters

Off Leash Update: Diplomatic Maneuvering, Security Incidents and Energy Developments

Election setbacks, Gaza diplomacy and regional security developments

Off Leash Update: Coalition Strains, Strategic Competition, and Political Disruption

Election transitions, Gaza diplomacy and Korean tensions shape June 3 outlook

Russia Reshuffles Defense Leadership as Kharkiv Pressure Builds

Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and Chad

Xi’s Serbia Visit, UK-Russia Tensions, Gaza Arms Policy and Herat Attack

Gaza, Haiti and Sahel developments lead 26 April update

Regional conflict, foreign aid and security policy shifts

Israel-Iran tensions, Qatar mediation, Venezuela sanctions and U.S.-China measures

Developments spanning Gaza negotiations and elections across three continents

Iranian arms claims, Rafah uncertainty and eastern DRC attack lead 10 April brief

U.S. Pressures Israel on Gaza as Regional and Security Risks Persist

Ukraine drone adaptation, Gaza aid-worker strike and regional political tensions

U.S.–China diplomacy, Ukraine mobilization and regional security developments

Trump accused China of stealing voter files and influencing the 2020 election

16 linked map positions

Joe Biden linked geography

Strike killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza

Mention timeline

Ukraine’s military leadership, regional U.S.-Iran strikes, and election-security allegations

Houthi moves and European defense warnings

Syria, Lobito Corridor and Taiwan Transit Lead Dec. 2 Off Leash Update

Lebanon ceasefire begins amid political unrest in Venezuela, Mozambique and Pakistan

Tensions across the Middle East, East Asia, Russia and Venezuela

Off Leash Update: Middle East escalation, Russian covert activity and Korean tensions

Escalation risks rise in Lebanon as China publicizes ICBM test

Off Leash Update: Election Tensions, Conflict Developments and Strategic Competition

Off Leash: Political and security developments across seven theaters

Off Leash Update: Diplomatic Maneuvering, Security Incidents and Energy Developments

Election setbacks, Gaza diplomacy and regional security developments

Off Leash Update: Coalition Strains, Strategic Competition, and Political Disruption

Election transitions, Gaza diplomacy and Korean tensions shape June 3 outlook

Russia Reshuffles Defense Leadership as Kharkiv Pressure Builds

Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and Chad

Xi’s Serbia Visit, UK-Russia Tensions, Gaza Arms Policy and Herat Attack

Gaza, Haiti and Sahel developments lead 26 April update

Regional conflict, foreign aid and security policy shifts

Israel-Iran tensions, Qatar mediation, Venezuela sanctions and U.S.-China measures

Developments spanning Gaza negotiations and elections across three continents

Iranian arms claims, Rafah uncertainty and eastern DRC attack lead 10 April brief

U.S. Pressures Israel on Gaza as Regional and Security Risks Persist

Ukraine drone adaptation, Gaza aid-worker strike and regional political tensions

U.S.–China diplomacy, Ukraine mobilization and regional security developments