U.S.–China diplomacy, Ukraine mobilization and regional security developments

Off Leash 3 April update

China Presidents Biden and Xi held a rare phone call yesterday to try to improve mounting tensions between the two superpowers they lead. The White House said Biden addressed China's support for Russia in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, TikTok, and North Korean missiles; Beijing said Xi brought up economic tensions and U.S. support for Taiwan. Following the Xi-Biden call, the U.S. announced that Treasury Secretary Yellen and SecState Blinken will visit China in the coming weeks to follow up on the presidents' discussions. Separately, Taiwan suffered its biggest earthquake in 25 years, killing at least nine people and disrupting chipmaking at several of TSMC's factories. Fifty people are still missing. Ukraine After initially resisting calls to lower Ukraine's military draft age, Pres. Zelensky finally gave in and signed a bill lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. That should help Ukraine recruit more of the 500,000 additional soldiers Zelensky estimated would be needed to round out Ukrainian forces so that war-weary soldiers can be rotated from the front lines, where the average age is 43. An Economist article pasted below describes why this recruitment push is necessary for Ukraine to defend against an expected Russian spring offensive. Separately, NATO foreign ministers are meeting on the sidelines of alliance anniversary celebrations in Brussels this week to discuss a proposal for a €100 billion ($108 billion) five-year military support plan for Ukraine. Even if they do align on a deal, it likely won't be finalized until July when they meet again in Washington.

Russia U.S. officials confirmed that the CIA alerted Russia about intelligence suggesting that Islamic State-Khorasan terrorists specifically planned to target Crocus City Hall - which we now know was indeed their target on March 22. Russia dismissed the American warnings as "blackmail" - perhaps because the first warnings in early March suggested the attack was imminent within days. Moscow may have let its guard down when nothing happened immediately after the first warnings. Sudan Sudan's government was offended by what it called "unprofessional reporting and harmful publications" by Saudi and Emirati media outlets and suspended several of them, including Saudi's Al Arabiya and Al Hadath and UAE's Sky News Arabia. Sudan's leaders have long accused the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces it's fighting against, so the Sky News Arabia ban made sense. However, the ban on the Saudi outlets is more of a shock: both Saudi broadcasters expressed "surprise" at the news.