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16 direct mentions across 16 briefings, with 18 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the view that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire was closer than before. Negotiators believed Hamas was ready to accept the terms and that Israel had agreed without announcing its decision publicly.
Unverified development · updated through
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the view that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire was closer than before. Negotiators believed Hamas was ready to accept the terms and that Israel had agreed without announcing its decision publicly.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Antony Blinken dossier
15 mapped developments across 9 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
China
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China and warn Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia manufacture military hardware.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 15 January Gaza •SecState Blinken reported that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is "closer than it’s ever been before" and only awaiting Hamas's final approval. •Negotiators say Hamas seems ready to accept the terms on the table, and Israel has reportedly agreed too - though not publicly. Ukraine •A long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas. •Separately, unconfirmed reports suggest Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins - who was fighting for Ukraine when Russian troops captured him last year - has died in Russian captivity. Australia expressed "grave concerns" for his safety and threatened the "strongest possible action" if Russian forces killed him. South Korea •South Korean police detained Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol after a lengthy stand-off at his fortified residence. •Yoon is technically still the sitting president, although he was impeached and suspended last month over his brief attempt to impose martial law. •The Constitutional Court will first decide whether to uphold his impeachment, and - if it does uphold - whether to permanently remove him from office. China •Sunday is the deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company to sell the video-sharing app or face a ban - unless the U.S. Supreme Court strikes the ban down before then. •The NYT reports that many of the app's 170 million U.S. users are reluctantly switching to alternative apps in anticipation of a ban. Ironically, one of the top alternative apps for "TikTok refugees" - as they're calling themselves - is also Chinese owned: Xiaohongshu (RedNote). Cuba •The U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown. •The designation has been a ping pong ball between U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations: Cuba was removed under Obama, added in the final days of Trump's first term, now removed again under Biden, and may be added again in Trump's second term. Oil Prices •Last week's fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil - and, in particular, the tankers carrying it - have caused supertanker shipping rates to surge. Current VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday. •The sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives. •But grey and black markets always find workarounds, and the current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, landed in Guatemala yesterday - apparently after a six-day stop in the Dominican Republic. •González had planned to return from exile in Spain to Venezuela in time for inauguration day last Friday, but Pres. Maduro's security services blocked his return, and Maduro was uneventfully (and illegitimately) sworn in instead. •González met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown. Mozambique •Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as Mozambique's new president today. His inauguration was as unexciting as Pres. Maduro's in Venezuela - and, Mozambique's opposition argues, as illegitimate.
Open source reportOff Leash update Jan 7 North Korea •North Korean state media celebrated yesterday's test-launch with its usual bombastic rhetoric: the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim Jong Un "personally oversaw" the successful test of a new type of intermediate range hypersonic ballistic missile intended to "reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region." •Though KCNA quoted Kim's reassurance that "this is clearly a plan and effort for self-defence, not an offensive plan and action," the launch was clearly timed to sow fear during U.S. SecState Blinken's visit to South Korea. China •Taiwan detected damage to an undersea internet cable and blamed a ship linked to China. Taiwan quickly restored communications through other channels, but the incident served as a reminder that China's threats loom large over the island's infrastructure. Guantanamo •The U.S. transferred 11 Yemeni detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman, where they'll be resettled. •That leaves 15 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo. Three of the 15 are eligible for transfer but - like the Yemenis - come from unstable countries they can't be transferred back to (Somalia, Libya, and Stateless Rohingya Myanmar); the rest are being held indefinitely because they've been convicted / charged or are otherwise ineligible for transfer. Syria •After consultations with Syria's new leadership, the U.S. Treasury Department eased some restrictions on humanitarian aid transfers into the country. •Sanctions remain in place - meaning that weapons and military gear are still prohibited - but NGOs now have a little more leeway to provide basic services like healthcare and sanitation. Other News •As anticipated, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau tendered his resignation. His Liberal Party will now choose a successor to take his place until a new general election that the strengthening Conservative Party looks likely to win. •The BRICS group of emerging economies formally approved Indonesia's entry to their ranks. •Happy Birthday Joanie!
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 DEC Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meets for the last time in 2024 on Wednesday. The market expects the Fed to cut target interest rates this week but signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,605/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,053/ton •Gold: $2,655/toz •Lead: $2,010/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.22/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,096/ton Syria •SecState Blinken confirmed that U.S. officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group leading the coalition that ousted Pres. Assad. It was the first formal confirmation that Washington is engaging the likely leaders of Syria's new government - who remain designated terrorists. •Satellite images seemed to show Russian troops packing up some equipment to leave Syria. Media reports suggest Russia is only scaling back but intends to maintain a smaller presence in Syria - concentrated at Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and Tartous naval base - going forward. •Meanwhile, Israel seems to be preparing for a prolonged presence along the border with Syria: Defense Minister Katz ordered troops to prepare to spend the winter deployed to Mount Hermon "due to what is happening in Syria." Israel hopes its troop presence can prevent hostile forces from filling the vacuum Assad's fleeing army left behind. •For similar reasons, Israel also announced plans to double its population in the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and has occupied since. Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that expanding the Israeli presence on the strategic plateau will help "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border." Russia •Two Russian oil tankers ran into trouble in the Black Sea yesterday: bad weather caused one to sink and another to run aground. Environmentalists are concerned about the 4,300 tons of fuel oil that sank with the Volgoneft-212, and Russian investigators opened inquiries into possible safety violations on both ships. Israel •Ireland filed an intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in support of South Africa's genocide case against Israel (which is not a member of the ICJ and doesn't recognize ICJ's jurisdiction). •Ireland's filing enraged Israel's foreign minister, who complained that "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relationship with Israel" and said Israel would close its embassy in Dublin. Ireland will retain its embassy in Tel Aviv, and bilateral diplomatic relations will continue through that channel. Sahel •Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc. •All three countries' juntas hastily announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in Jan. 2024 and were due to formally exit the group Jan. 29, 2025. However, they'll now have another six months to entertain the bloc's last-ditch pleas to change their "irreversible" decisions to leave. Other News •Cyclone Chido ravaged the Indian Ocean islands of Mayotte Friday, leaving hundreds - or possibly thousands - feared dead. Mayotte is an overseas territory of France with a per capita GDP of just $11,850, making it the poorest place in the European Union. France has sent rescuers and will probably need to fund reconstruction. •South Korea's National Assembly impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol over his quasi-coup attempt. The Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate the unpopular Yoon or remove him from office. •Germany's Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote in Germany's parliament today, setting the stage for early elections in Feb. 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 August Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August Gaza •SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages. •However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them. •Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north. •Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold. •Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night. •The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries. Ukraine •Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!" •Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement. •Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand." •Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk. China •Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision. •The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea. •After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again." Afghanistan •A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country. •Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 August Russia •After months of complex negotiations, Russia released sixteen prisoners - including wrongfully detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan - in a swap that also saw Western countries release eight Russian prisoners - including very rightfully detained Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned in Germany for murdering a Chechen leader there. •The NYT noted that Pres. Putin "can use [Krasikov's release] to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad." Some analysts suggested he'll also use Krasikov to train new recruited hitmen to better evade capture. Ukraine •Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer. These first jets came from Denmark and the Netherlands; it's not clear how many were in this first wave. Venezuela •U.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela, saying that "it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election." •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González, who ran in her place after she was barred from the ballot. North Korea •North Korea reported extensive damage from flooding in its northern regions bordering China. •Brushing off the recent swarms of "trash balloons" the North has floated over their shared border, South Korea offered to send humanitarian aid north to its bitter foe. If Kim Jong Un accepts the South's aid, it could lead to the first official talks between them in years. Israel •The NYT published new details on Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Apparently the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was smuggled into the guesthouse where he was killed months ago. •The blast was so targeted that it killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah - the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was sleeping next door - was unscathed with very little damage to his room. •Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke at the funeral of a Hezbollah commander killed in another recent Israeli strike - this one in Beirut on Tuesday, just before the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran. •Nasrallah exercised restraint by not calling for prompt retaliation (as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei did after the Tehran blast). Rather, he vaguely mentioned that the conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" and warned Israel ominously but non-committally "You do not realize the red lines you have crossed." Hezbollah lobbed a few more rockets over the border. DRC •Ex-Pres. Kabila's wife, Olive Lembe Kabila, said that dozens of youth - reportedly linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me" on Wednesday. •Mrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by. •There were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 30 July Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,289/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $23,100/ton •Cobalt: $26,625/ton •Copper: $9,111/ton •Gold: $2,374/toz •Lead: $2,068/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.86/barrel •Zinc: $2,669/ton Venezuela •Pres. Maduro declared victory in yesterday's election. So did his opposition opponent, Edmundo González. •This time, Maduro claimed just 51.2% of the vote - just enough to avoid a runoff, but (Maduro probably hopes) not egregiously incredible enough to spark a revolution. •Many would-be observers boycotted the poll because Maduro tainted it from the start by bullying the opposition ( @MariaCorinaYA ) out of a fair race. And the few observers who participated cited widespread irregularities. •Electoral authorities also prevented the public from fact-checking its count by refusing to release paper tallies printed by voting machines at key polling places. Israel •On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket killed at least 12 kids and teens on a soccer (football) field in the Golan Heights, a sliver of Syria that Israel occupied in 1967 and annexed in 1981. •Israel's security cabinet authorized PM Netanyahu to decide on the "manner and timing" of a response - likely involving counterstrikes in Lebanon. •One such counterstrike already took place: an Israeli drone strike killed two people and wounded three - including a child - in the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. China •SecState Blinken criticized China's "escalating" and "unlawful actions" in the South China Sea during a trip to Laos - where he will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. •Blinken will also visit Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines in an effort to befriend Southeast Asian countries that are feeling threatened by an increasingly bellicose China. North Korea •Saturday was North Korea's Victory Day - commemorating the 70th anniversary of the truce that paused (but didn't end) the Korean War. •Kim Jong Un invited a special guest for the occasion: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. His presence at the Victory Day festivities serves as a reminder of the increasingly close ties between Russia and North Korea, which were further solidified by Pres. Putin's second visit to the Hermit Kingdom last month. Sahel •Tuareg separatists engaged Malian soldiers backed by Russian Wagner troops near Mali's border with Algeria and - according to the Tuaregs - "decisively obliterated these enemy columns" over three days of fighting. •The Tuareg have been fighting for independence since 2012, but they started this latest round of fighting in response to recent military offensives that recaptured formerly rebel-held territory. •The rebels say they seized "a large amount of equipment and weapons" and took "dozens" of Wagner fighters captive. •The Malian army says two soldiers died and also acknowledged losing a helicopter in another nearby rebel stronghold, but said nothing about Wagner involvement in the fighting...officially, Wagner personnel are only in Mali to train local troops and shouldn't be fighting alongside their "trainees." Libya •Libya convicted 12 current and former officials for their negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed last year, killing at least 4,300 - and possibly over 12,000. Several were ordered to repay funds obtained through "illicit means," suggesting that the court blamed their misdeeds (at least in part) on corruption. Other News •French authorities are blaming the far-left for last week's organized attacks on French train lines. Today they arrested a far-left activist in Normandy in connection with the incidents. •Meanwhile, a new coordinated infrastructure attack affected fiberoptic telecom networks throughout France (though Paris was not affected).
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June Hezbollah •An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel. •The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border. Gaza •Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable." •Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides. •Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway. •Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination." Ukraine •Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies. •Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies. •On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks. Haiti •Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government. South Africa •Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. •MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday. •Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa. Other News •Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather. •A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 15 May China •The U.S. slapped tariffs on cheap Chinese electronics - including electric vehicles (EVs), solar equipment and batteries - to ensure that domestic production can compete with "unfairly under-priced" Chinese goods in an election year. The tariff rate for inexpensive (but high quality) Chinese EVs like BYD's will quadruple to 100%. And China will probably retaliate. •The Biden administration also ordered a Chinese-linked cryptocurrency mining operation conspicuously located near a U.S. Air Force base that operates nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles to shut down within 90 days and sell the land it was working from within 120 days over surveillance risks. •Concerns over the Chinese crypto operation are probably well founded: Microsoft had gone out of its way to warn counterespionnage officials that the operation could allow China to "pursue full-spectrum intelligence collection operations." •Separately, the UK charged three men accused of spying for Hong Kong on Monday, and yesterday its Foreign Office summoned the Chinese ambassador to discuss the arrest and a "recent pattern of behaviour directed by China against the UK, including cyber-attacks, reports of espionage links and the issuing of bounties" (China runs Hong Kong as a special administrative region). •Russia announced that Pres. Putin will visit China this Thursday and Friday. Under their "no limits" friendship, Russia provides cheap energy to China, and China supports (or at least doesn't oppose) Russia's war in Ukraine. The Economist pointed out that Pres. Xi has met (either virtually or one-on-one in person) with Putin over 40 times since 2013 - which is more than twice as many meetings as he's held with leaders of any other country in that time. Gaza •The UN switched to a new, more conservative system for reporting casualties in Gaza, and it resulted in a near-halving of reported deaths of women and children: from 24,000 to 12,756. That's not because the UN confirmed the rest were still alive, though; it's just waiting until more information emerges from the fog of war before it confirms the remaining ~10,000 dead. •The U.S. told Congress it will send Israel another $1 billion in arms - including $700 million of tank rounds, $500 million of tactical vehicles, and $60 million of mortar rounds. It's the first planned weapons transfer to Israel since a shipment of bigger arms was put on hold last week over Israel's planned operations in Rafah (the shipment that will proceed is of smaller arms than the one that was paused). •Meanwhile, right-wing Israeli protesters in the West Bank disrupted Palestinian aid shipments heading to Gaza, ransacking several trucks and setting fire to at least one of them. Other drivers carrying much-needed aid to Gaza said they feared for their safety while carrying out deliveries. Russia •Russia arrested a second senior defense official on bribery charges: Lt. Gen. Yury Kuznetsov - who heads the Defense Ministry's main personnel directorate - is accused of accepting an "exceptionally large bribe" when he was in charge of the military General Staff's directorate responsible for preserving state secrets. His bribes apparently didn't stay secret. •Kuznetsov's was the second big ousting in Putin's defense leadership this week, after Defense Secretary Shoigu's demotion. Shoigu had a much softer landing and will enjoy a cushy new gig on the National Security Council, but Kremlin insiders leaked that Putin privately upbraided him for the military's failures in Ukraine under his command. Ukraine •SecState Blinken is on a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Pres. Zelensky yesterday to reassure him of continued U.S. support after a delay in passing the latest military aid package weakened Ukrainian defenses and confidence. •Zelensky pleaded with Blinken for more air defenses - "two Patriots for Kharkiv" - to help stop Russian advances in the north.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 May Gaza and Israel •Speaking in Tel Aviv, SecState Blinken told reporters the U.S. "cannot, will not, support a major military operation in Rafah absent an effective plan to make sure that civilians are not harmed — and no, we’ve not seen such a plan." •He also nudged Hamas to accept the peace deal currently on the table, which would trade 33 hostages for a six-week ceasefire and some Palestinian prisoners. •Hamas officials told Lebanese media they're "negative" on the current proposal but willing to keep talking as long as Israel doesn't start its Rafah operation. •Separately, Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro, severed diplomatic ties with Israel over its war in Gaza and called the Israeli government "genocidal." Colombia is the third American country to cut ties with Israel: Bolivia and Belize did so in November. Russia •The U.S. accused Russia of using the chemical choking agent chloropicrin on the battlefield in Ukraine, which would be a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia called the allegations "baseless." China •The U.S. slapped sanctions on almost 300 companies and groups - including around 20 in China and Hong Kong - that it accuses of supplying Russia's war in Ukraine. China complained about the "illegal unilateral sanctions," which both SecState Blinken and Treasury Secretary Yellen had warned Beijing were coming. •The Solomon Islands solidified its loyalty to China by electing another pro-China prime minister, Jeremiah Manele. Manele was foreign minister when the Pacific nation switched its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China, and has pledged to strengthen the country's opaque security pact with China as PM. •A highway in Guangdong collapsed after heavy rainfall, killing at least 48 people. Pres. Xi ordered local authorities to respond to the disaster quickly to save lives and ensure "overall social stability" - lest residents complain about a weak governmental response. Afghanistan •The Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan's latest report said Islamic State-Khorasan is leveraging instability in Afghanistan to ramp up its recruitment there, and warned that the group's "resurgence" could lead to more attacks abroad - like its assault on a Russian concert hall in March and its bombing in Iran in January, which both killed over 100.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May Russia •Finland's national airline, Finnair, reported that some of its recent flights were interrupted because of radar jams hear the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. •Russia seems to be responsible for the jams, but - as The Economist explains - its interference is probably more defensive than nefarious: Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and the jams are probably designed to scramble Ukrainian attack drones targeting Russian military sites there. Gaza •SecState Blinken will meet PM Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials today, and is expected to press them to speed up aid shipments to Gaza. •Blinken and other diplomats have been encouraging Israel to stall its ground invasion of Rafah to improve odds for a ceasefire deal, but Netanyahu reaffirmed that the Rafah operation will go ahead "with or without" a deal. •Separately, the UN's International Court of Justice rejected Nicaragua's case against Germany for shipping weapons to Israel. China •China's latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan Shipyard for its first sea trials. Following the trials, the 80,000-ton Fujian will become the third carrier in China's fleet, after the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning. Haiti •Haiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister as it tries to root out gangs and establish a stable government. •Bélizaire replaced Michel Patrick Boisvert, who became interim PM only last week when the council formally took over from ousted (and unelected) PM Henry. •Bélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members, and the other five indicated they didn't know him well enough to appoint him. DRC •UN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces - which are currently facing worse violence than South Kivu. By the end of the year, the UN's longest and costliest peacekeeping mission will fully wind down and exit DRC. Sahel •Mali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo), who planned the 2017 attack that killed four U.S. troops in Tongo Tongo, Niger. •The operation took place in Liptako, which is where the porous borders of three junta-run countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - meet. •Its success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States after they were evicted from the regional ECOWAS bloc following their coups. Sudan •Amidst the looming spectre of a second genocide in Darfur, the U.S. asked the UAE and other allies to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces. (The UAE insists it "is not supplying any arms or ammunition to any faction engaged in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," but evidence suggests it actually is.) Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on a container ship in the Red Sea on Friday, and yesterday authorities confirmed their claim. •The ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen. •The Orion sustained only minor damage and continued its voyage. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack at a Shia mosque in Herat that killed six, including the imam. IS is the main instigator of anti-Shia attacks in Afghanistan, so its claim wasn't a surprise. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4/22 -The Philippines and the U.S. begin annual joint military exercises today, but this time the exercises take place far from Philippine territorial waters in a part of the central South China Sea claimed by China. Though international law allows the exercises to take place there, China will see them as a provocation. -Passover begins at sundown today and ends at sundown next Tuesday. North Macedonia votes for president on Wednesday. U.S. SecState Blinken will visit China this week with a warning to Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia make military hardware. -Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,669/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $14,200/ton Cobalt: $27,830/ton Copper: $9,876/ton Gold: $2,337/toz Lead: $2,219/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.77/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.77/barrel Zinc: $2,852/ton -Iran and Israel Both Iran and Israel seem to be standing down after their tit-for-tat exchange of unprecedented direct strikes last week. Iran downplayed Israel's drone strike on Friday and seems content to let it be the last shot in this volley. Israel's Friday strike hit a defensive battery near some of Iran's most important nuclear infrastructure. Western officials said Israel's objective was to show that it could penetrate Iranian defenses undetected - and it apparently did on Friday. Some Israeli media reports suggest Israel used a supersonic "Rampage" missile in that final strike on Friday. Neither Israel nor Iran are confirming those reports: Iranian officials are happy to let the public believe the foreign minister's comment that the weapons deployed agaisnt Isfahan were "like toys our children play with" rather than a high-tech, 1,250 lb (567 kg) missile. Separately, Iraq's pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces accused the U.S. of striking one of its bases near Baghdad, killing one militant -Gaza The U.S. is reportedly planning to slap sanctions on the Israel Defence Forces' Netzah Yehuda Battalion for alleged human rights violations it committted in the West Bank. PM Netanyahu vowed to "fight" the sanctions, which would suspend U.S. funding and training for the unit. Israel's head of military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, became the first senior official to resign over the failure to foresee and prevent Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks. The attacks happened over six months ago, but as protests against PM Netanyahu's handling of the war grow, critics want heads to roll. Ukraine -Sadly after much delay and politicking, the U.S. House approved a long-stalled $95 billion foreign aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Ukraine celebrated the news: $61 billion of the total is earmarked for it, including $14 billion for weapons. The Kremlin warned that the bill's passage would "further ruin" Ukraine. -Venezuela Saturday was the deadline for swapping candidates on the ballot for Venezuela's July presidential election. The opposition had hoped to put its unity leader, Maria Corina Machado, on the ballot, but she's still barred from running under a politically-motivated technicality, so all 10 parties in the main opposition coalition aligned behind a relatively unknown former diplomat, Edmundo González, as their candidate. -Myanmar Recently-united rebel groups are rapidly retaking territory from government forces in Myanmar. Rebels now control over half the country. China The Maldives' pro-China ruling People's National Congress (PNC) party won a decisive victory in this weekend's parliamentary elections, with enough seats to secure an outright majority. The PNC's leader, incumbent president Muizzu, steered the country closer to China but has been restrained by a pro-India party's control of the legislature. Now that the PNC controls the legislature too, we'll likely see the Maldives pivot more sharply towards China. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash 3 April update China Presidents Biden and Xi held a rare phone call yesterday to try to improve mounting tensions between the two superpowers they lead. The White House said Biden addressed China's support for Russia in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, TikTok, and North Korean missiles; Beijing said Xi brought up economic tensions and U.S. support for Taiwan. Following the Xi-Biden call, the U.S. announced that Treasury Secretary Yellen and SecState Blinken will visit China in the coming weeks to follow up on the presidents' discussions. Separately, Taiwan suffered its biggest earthquake in 25 years, killing at least nine people and disrupting chipmaking at several of TSMC's factories. Fifty people are still missing. Ukraine After initially resisting calls to lower Ukraine's military draft age, Pres. Zelensky finally gave in and signed a bill lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. That should help Ukraine recruit more of the 500,000 additional soldiers Zelensky estimated would be needed to round out Ukrainian forces so that war-weary soldiers can be rotated from the front lines, where the average age is 43. An Economist article pasted below describes why this recruitment push is necessary for Ukraine to defend against an expected Russian spring offensive. Separately, NATO foreign ministers are meeting on the sidelines of alliance anniversary celebrations in Brussels this week to discuss a proposal for a €100 billion ($108 billion) five-year military support plan for Ukraine. Even if they do align on a deal, it likely won't be finalized until July when they meet again in Washington. Russia U.S. officials confirmed that the CIA alerted Russia about intelligence suggesting that Islamic State-Khorasan terrorists specifically planned to target Crocus City Hall - which we now know was indeed their target on March 22. Russia dismissed the American warnings as "blackmail" - perhaps because the first warnings in early March suggested the attack was imminent within days. Moscow may have let its guard down when nothing happened immediately after the first warnings. Sudan Sudan's government was offended by what it called "unprofessional reporting and harmful publications" by Saudi and Emirati media outlets and suspended several of them, including Saudi's Al Arabiya and Al Hadath and UAE's Sky News Arabia. Sudan's leaders have long accused the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces it's fighting against, so the Sky News Arabia ban made sense. However, the ban on the Saudi outlets is more of a shock: both Saudi broadcasters expressed "surprise" at the news.
Open source report