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36 direct mentions across 36 briefings, with 30 linked developments.
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According to Xi Jinping, a call for rapidly advancing artificial intelligence to be developed for positive and humanitarian purposes.
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According to Xi Jinping, a call for rapidly advancing artificial intelligence to be developed for positive and humanitarian purposes.
Open source reportGeography
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Xi Jinping dossier
20 mapped developments across 10 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Guangdong
A highway collapsed after heavy rainfall, killing at least 48 people; Xi Jinping directed local authorities to save lives and preserve social stability. The response was intended to limit public criticism is an author interpretation.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 17 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing. •Fedorov spoke out against Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, accusing the commander in chief of "blocking all of our initiatives" and complaining that "instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically...hefigured out how to split the country." •Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed over Federov's efforts to modernize the military, despite the success of innovations like drone technology that he introduced. Protesters are now calling for Syrskyi to be removed instead. IRAN •U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria. •Iran said the Syrian strike on a U.S. special operations command center in al Tanf was in retaliation for U.S. strikes that killed Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. There were no U.S. casualties; the U.S. withdrew troops from al Tanf in February (probably at Pres. al Sharaa's request: al Sharaa doesn't want to get involved in the U.S.-Iran war). CHINA •In a televised address, Pres. Trump accused China of stealing voter files on about 220 million Americans and using them to influence the 2020 election in Joe Biden's favor. China vehemently denied Trump's claim, saying it "has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S." •Shortly after Trump's address, China's leader, Xi Jinping, struck a much more friendly tone at the AI conference he's hosting in Shanghai: "With AI advancing at a staggering speed, we must ensure its development is for positive, for good, and for humanity." VENEZUELA •A CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012. •The report cautioned that there was no definitive evidence that the Maduro regime pulled off "large-scale electronic fraud" this way (Nicolas Maduro had other ways of rigging elections in his favor, like bullying the opposition out of challenging him in polls). It also clarified that there was no evidence that Maduro's regime had any ability to influence elections in other countries using Smartmatic machines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 June 2026 IRAN AND ISRAEL •The U.S. and Iran exchanged another round of strikes, but - as in other recent flare-ups - both sides exercised a modicum of restraint and justified their attacks as exact retaliation for specific incidents in an effort to uphold the broader ceasefire. •First, a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Both pilots were rescued, but Pres. Trump blamed Iran for downing the gunship and ordered strikes against air defense and radar sites in southern Iran in retaliation. •Then Iran re-retaliated with drone attacks on U.S. military sites in the region, including U.S. Navy assets in Bahrain and a U.S. base in Jordan. •Iran accused the U.S. of "undermining" the fragile ceasefire, but neither side seems eager to abandon the truce or diplomatic negotiations, which Trump said Monday were "two or three days" away from reaching an agreement. •So the fragile detente holds, although - as The Economist noted - "the more the ceasefire is tested, the more likely it is to collapse entirely." UKRAINE •The European Union (EU) proposed a number of new measures to penalize Russia for its war in Ukraine. One idea would bar Russian soldiers and veterans who served in Ukraine from ever entering the EU; another would maintain the low $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil through 2027. This is the EU's 21st package of sanctions on Russia since the war began. PAKISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan that Islamabad claimed killed at least 26 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants in three Afghan provinces. Afghanistan said the strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including 11 children. •Despite flare-ups like this, the neighboring countries are still technically observing a tenuous ceasefire that China helped mediate in March. NORTH KOREA •China's Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings with Kim Jong Un in North Korea. State media stuck to their orders and celebrated vague pleasantries without divulging any real insight into what Xi and Kim discussed. •Analysts instead honed in on what was omitted from state media reports: Xi said nothing about North Korea's nuclear program - even though Pres. Trump claimed after his meeting with Xi last month that the two had agreed to work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. •One analyst suggested that Xi's avoidance of the nuclear topic with Kim suggests that Beijing has made "a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea" for the sake of maintaining strong bilateral relations with Pyongyang. EUROPE •Germany pulled out of the Future Combat Air System, a planned project to build a European fighter jet with France and Spain. •The project had been on life support after two French aviation majors - Dassault and Airbus - publicly disagreed over how to manage it, and Berlin's departure will probably be the long-anticipated death knell for the program, since France and Spain probably don't have the funding (or political will) to continue without Germany's support.
Open source reportXi Jinping was concluding a two-day visit to North Korea and interprets the trip as evidence that Kim Jong Un’s stronger ties with Russia have reduced his dependence on China.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportPresidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping held smaller private meetings and issued positive characterizations of the summit.
Open source reportIran may hope President Xi Jinping will intercede with President Trump, while also relaying an claim that Beijing previously encouraged Tehran to accept a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges. Iran's leaders have publicly dismissed the ultimatum, but Trump told Fox he thinks there's a "good chance" that private talks will reach a deal today to avoid escalation. •The first round of the golf Masters Tournament opens Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. FOUR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEKEND •Djibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75 that would've rendered him ineligible. Incidentally, that age limit was only imposed as part of a 2010 electoral "reform" that did away with term limits so he could run for a third term. This will be his sixth. •Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday. The Fidesz party's populist incumbent, Viktor Orban, is trailing in (independent) polls by 11 points to the center-right Tisza party's Peter Magyar, but government polls tell a different story, and analysts think Orban will pull out all the stops to extend his 16-year premiership. •Benin will vote for president on Sunday. The ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running. •Peru votes for president and parliament on Sunday. Two right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,470/ton •Antimony (global avg. from Antimony Global): $34,352/ton [Note: I'm switching to a new antimony benchmark that should be a better indicator of global average prices than the unconvincingly flat benchmark I was using for trioxide min. 99.65% fob China. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, antimony is usually traded through private over-the-counter contracts, which means prices are highly volatile and variable. This Antimony Global world average seems like the best big-picture benchmark out there.] •Bitcoin: $68,928 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,360/ton •Ethereum: $2,126 •Gold: $4,665/toz •Lead: $1,933/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.80/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $111.71/barrel •Zinc: $3,265/ton IRAN •Oil markets are volatile while waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal or - in the absence of a deal - if Pres. Trump will make good on his increasingly brash threats against Iran if it doesn't "open the fuckin' strait" by his deadline of 8 pm ET tomorrow. •Trump seemed emboldened to escalate his rhetoric by the success of a high-risk rescue mission to locate and extract a U.S. Air Force colonel whose F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down in southern Iran on Friday. •Iranian forces were desperately searching for the downed airman, too, and would've used him as negotiating leverage if they'd found him first. A CIA deception campaign helped ensure that didn't happen. •Separately, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither has responded yet, and it's unclear whether this is the deal that Trump gave a "good chance" of closing today. •Meanwhile, a likely Israeli strike killed Majid Khademi - the head of intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - earlier today. Khademi had only been in his post since last June, when his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike. TRADE •Bloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering. •That's the highest seven-day rolling total since the war began, and it included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker - both with no clear links to Iran. However, it's still just a trickle compared to the historical average of 138 transits per day. •Iran has reportedly set up a tolling system - which witty commentators dubbed an "ayatollah booth" - to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage. It has also restricted transits to a narrow northern passage, creating a natural limit on traffic too. •Meanwhile, European leaders are exploring options for safeguarding trade in the Strait. They're reportedly considering naval escorts (French Pres. Macron's preferred option), minesweeping, aerial interceptors, and - the bureaucrats' favorite - negotiations and economic measures. All have drawbacks, and none are sure to work. CHINA •Cheng Li-wun, who leads Taiwan's largest opposition party - the Kuomintang (KMT) - won her party's leadership in October after campaigning on closer ties with mainland China. That platform also won her an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit the mainland, which she's doing this week with a delegation that will stop in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing. •Xi's courtship of the KMT under Cheng is likely part of his push to reunify Taiwan. It would be easier if a pliant future KMT government simply agreed to reunification than if Beijing had to take the island by force. •To that end, Beijing also reached out to the current (more defiant) Taiwanese government in early March to offer energy guarantees if it agreed to reunify. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party leaders quickly rejected the proposal, which was probably more of an optics play (to show Taiwan that its leaders refuse dialogue even at the expense of energy security) than a real offer. HUNGARY •Serbian officials discovered two backpacks containing explosives near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary. That appears to corroborate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that "Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy." •However, Hungary's opposition leader, Peter Magyar - who's leading Orban in independent polls ahead of Sunday's election - was skeptical. Magyar accused Orban of staging a "false flag" operation to scare voters into rallying behind their strongman leader on Sunday.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Pakistani jets bombed Kabul and Kandahar today in retaliation for Afghan attacks on Pakistani border positions hours earlier. •Pakistan's defense minister warned Afghanistan's Taliban government in a social media post that "our cup of patience has overflowed" and declared an "open war." However, its strikes today were quite limited in scale and scope, and didn't seem like the opening salvo of a full-scale war. •While Islamabad would love to see the end of the Taliban government and its support for Pakistani Taliban militants, it can't afford a war with Afghanistan that would divert its military resources from fighting internal insurgencies or maintaining readiness for a potential future showdown with India. IRAN •American and Iranian officials met for six hours of nuclear talks in Geneva yesterday, but failed to break through their impasse - largely because Iran still refuses to cave to U.S. demands to stop all nuclear work. •Iranian officials and Omani mediators said the two sides agreed to continue negotiations with another round of talks next week, but U.S. officials pointedly declined to confirm, driving speculation that Pres. Trump may be losing patience with diplomacy. VENEZUELA •Interim president Delcy Rodriguez's government suspended 19 oil and gas production sharing agreements signed under Rodriguez's predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, while Venezuela and the U.S. jointly review the contracts and counterparties. •The suspended contracts were signed while Venezuela was under sanctions, which scared oil majors away from bidding. As a result, most of the deals went to shady and little-known companies with less operating experience. Caracas likely hopes to reassign them to more capable operators. •First, Rodriguez need to restore oil majors' confidence in Venezuela. To that end, she called on Pres. Trump to end sanctions and a naval blockade of sanctioned tankers in a speech on state television yesterday. CHINA •China removed nine military officers and 10 other officials from its National People's Congress, which convenes for annual meetings next week. •No reason was given for the removals, but they appear to be part of Xi Jinping's ever-widening crackdown on corruption. •Xi's critics say his purges are less about rooting out corruption and more about consolidating power by sidelining rivals and dissenters. CUBA •Details of yesterday's shootout between Cuban border guards and alleged seaborne "infiltrators" are still murky. •Most of what we know comes from the Cuban government's account of the incident, but that's now being called into question after one of the men Havana identified as a dead attacker popped up alive and well in Miami. He told reporters he would love to bring down the Cuban regime, though he clearly wasn't part of this attempt to do so. •The men who were actually killed and captured in the incident seem to have been Cuban dissidents, too.
Open source reportDisputed-territory discussions involving Ukraine, planned U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, Iran’s handling of protest deaths, and a Trump-Xi exchange about Taiwan.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Nov 2025 U.S. •U.S. off-year elections are today. Vote! GAZA •Yesterday, the U.S. circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution proposing an International Security Force (ISF) to run post-war Gaza for two years. •The draft emphasizes that the ISF would be an "enforcement force and not a peacekeeping force," and would have a mandate to disarm terror groups. •That's likely to be a turnoff for some of the Arab and Muslim leaders - like Jordan's King Abdullah - who have said they won't contribute troops to a force tasked with enforcing peace rather than merely keeping it. [Peace enforcement generally uses coercive measures like military force to impose peace - an idea that King Abdullah says "nobody will want to touch" in Gaza.] VENEZUELA •The Washington Post reported that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro has been begging for help from Russia, China, and Iran to upgrade its arsenal, defenses, and air fleet in light of the ongoing buildup of U.S. forces in the region, which Maduro (rightly) perceives as a threat to his regime. •Russia has sent Maduro at least two cargo planes of kit in recent weeks, but some analysts think that's about all the support that Moscow will be able to offer while its focus and resources are stretched in Ukraine. A spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry merely acknowledged that her ministry was "in contact with" a pleading Maduro regime. •Iran has sent Maduro some drones; it's not clear whether or how China has replied to his requests. SUDAN •Satellite photos appeared to corroborate survivors' accounts that Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are carrying out systematic massacres of civilian men in El Fasher, which the RSF finally captured from the army last week. •Separately, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) - the world's leading authority on food crises - deemed El Fasher and a second Sudanese city, Kordofan's Kadugli, to be facing famine after monthslong RSF sieges. CHINA •The Economist analyzed 14,000 documented examples of Xi Jinping's speeches and writings since 2013 to spot some noteworthy trends. •Xi's use of bold language - "strong country," "great enterprise," "high quality," etc. - has risen dramatically, while he's reduced his use of fluffier and feelier words like "hope," "care," and "opinions." Read more here: https://t.co/VailJ6WtMG. TANZANIA •Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in to a new term as nationwide protests against her sham re-election continued. •One might think that a leader popular enough to claim 98% of the vote with a record turnout of 87% (per official stats) would relish celebrating her victory as her predecessors celebrated theirs: with a huge public inauguration bash at Dar es Salaam's largest stadium. •Instead, Samia took her oath of office in a private (but televised) event at a military venue, citing security concerns - which she blamed on "foreigners." •Reports of empty polling stations on election day cast doubt on the official turnout figures, and Samia didn't need to plump turnout up anyway: her victory was already ensured when her only two serious rivals were banned from running against her. GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, formally filed to contest the December 28 presidential election, reversing a pledge he made upon seizing power in 2021 to hand authority over to an elected government and not run for election himself. •Doumbouya apparently changed his mind after a convenient September referendum lifted a constitutional prohibition on military leaders contesting elections and introduced new restrictions that bar his two closest rivals from running. •Doumbouya's supporters - who don't seem to understand how democracy works - cheered him on as he filed his campaign papers: "Mamady champion, Mamady president, Mamady already elected!"
Open source reportWashington and Beijing reached trade-related understandings, links planned U.S. nuclear testing to Russian weapons announcements, and highlights violence or instability in El Fasher, the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship and Rio de Janeiro.
Open source reportTrump will attend the APEC summit in South Korea and plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on its sidelines Thursday.
Open source reportSanae Takaichi’s reported election, renewed RSF attacks around Khartoum and an U.S.-Australia critical-minerals plan intended to reduce reliance on China.
Open source reportTrump revived a threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing announced new rare-earth export controls. Trump questioned whether to meet Xi Jinping at an upcoming South Korea summit.
Open source reportA second U.S. strike near Venezuela, an expanded Israeli operation in Gaza City, regional opposition to Israel’s Qatar strike, Syria’s legislative selection process and new developments involving TikTok and Nvidia.
Open source reportXi Jinping appeared with Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi and Kim Jong Un during military celebrations and a parade in China, presenting an image of cordial high-level relations.
Open source reportThe Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit begins Sunday and will be attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meetings are unlikely to produce groundbreaking declarations or alliances.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportSenior BRICS officials met in Brazil on July 6–7 and that six national leaders, including Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, sent representatives instead of attending.
Open source reportA preliminary U.S.-China trade understanding; developments in the DRC and Sudan, Pakistan’s proposed defense increase, and diplomatic maneuvering over Gaza and Palestinian statehood.
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportXi Jinping described China and Russia as enduring friends during a video call with Vladimir Putin. Analysts who interpreted the call as an effort to counter speculation that Russia's engagement with Trump could weaken its relationship with China.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Dec Iran The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria. That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad. Syria Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.] The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent. Gaza U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month." Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past." However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position. With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people. Ukraine Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts. Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions." Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time. Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages. China Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet. 1/2
Open source reportAnalysts assess that repeated corruption allegations involving senior military officials could weaken Xi Jinping’s confidence in the PLA and potentially affect his timeline or ambitions concerning Taiwan.
Open source reportXi Jinping and Narendra Modi would meet during the BRICS summit in Kazan following the border arrangement. The wider territorial dispute remains unresolved despite reduced immediate tensions.
Open source reportXi Jinping pledged African countries 360 billion yuan in financing over three years and one billion yuan for training African militaries during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
Open source reportHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg characterized Orbán’s Moscow visit as unrepresentative of NATO’s position.
Open source reportReported developments in Ukraine, Gaza, Russia-China ties, North Korean arms allegations, militant recruitment in Mozambique and a prospective TikTok bid.
Open source reportVladimir Putin and Xi Jinping began two days of meetings in Beijing; their partnership as a stabilizing factor internationally.
Open source reportRussia announced that President Vladimir Putin would visit China on Thursday and Friday. According to The Economist, a claim that Xi Jinping had met Putin more than 40 times since 2013.
Open source reportViktor Orbán endorsed China’s 12-point Ukraine peace plan during Xi Jinping’s visit. A promised BYD electric-vehicle plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orbán’s support.
Open source reportXi Jinping visited Belgrade on the 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy but did not visit the site, unlike during his 2016 trip. Speculation that the omission was intended to avoid straining efforts to improve relations with NATO countries.
Open source reportChinese President Xi Jinping is visiting France, Serbia and Hungary during the week of May 6. The New York Times as characterizing the trip as an effort to divide Western allies.
Open source reportA highway collapsed after heavy rainfall, killing at least 48 people; Xi Jinping directed local authorities to save lives and preserve social stability. The response was intended to limit public criticism is an author interpretation.
Open source reportA Biden–Xi call, Taiwan semiconductor disruptions, Ukrainian recruitment and NATO aid discussions, an U.S. warning before the Crocus City Hall attack, and Sudanese restrictions on foreign media.
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