Ukraine, Iran and Taiwan feature in diplomatic activity

Off Leash update 5 Feb

UKRAINE •A new survey of Ukrainians found that 40% now say they're open to the idea of giving up the Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees. That's a major shift from earlier in the war, when 82% firmly opposed ceding territory to Russia. •Among those willing to give up the Donbas are residents of the Russian-occupied eastern region, who say they'd be willing to leave their homes behind if doing so assured peace. •That said, a majority of Ukrainians - 60% - still oppose ceding the Donbas to Russia, and many say they'd consider it a betrayal if Pres. Zelensky offers such a concession. Some expressed doubt that the security guarantors would truly come to Ukraine's aid if (cynics say when) Russia attacks again. •The idea of swapping the Donbas for security guarantees is one of the questions Ukrainian, Russian, and American negotiators are discussing in their second day of talks in Abu Dhabi today.

IRAN •The U.S. and Iran confirmed they'll start talks tomorrow - though the White House says they'll take place in Oman (rather than Istanbul, as initially reported). •In a sign that both sides are taking the talks seriously, both are sending their most senior negotiators aside from their respective presidents: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the U.S., and Iran is sending its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi. •Witkoff and Araghchi have reportedly exchanged occasional text messages in recent months, but the last time they spoke directly was before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran's nuclear sites in June. •Meanwhile, Iranian authorities are making some belated and insufficient efforts to try to soothe seething public anger over the brutal crackdown on protests that killed thousands last month. •Yesterday, the government unveiled a new website that Iranians can use to report the names of loved ones killed in the demonstrations who were not included on the government's initial official list of 2,986 names confirmed to have died (another 131 deaths were officially confirmed and included in the government's death toll of 3,117 but not named yet). •Rights groups say the new government webform is essentially an online trash can: names submitted to it have not been added to the separate official list, which remains incomplete and riddled with errors.

CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi spoke by phone yesterday for what Trump called an "excellent" and "long and thorough" call. •When the leaders last spoke in October, they avoided the thorny topic of Taiwan. •This time they did not - though Trump and Xi offered differing accounts of their discussion on the self-governing territory, which China claims. •Trump's readout suggested Taiwan was just one of many subjects they covered, while Chinese state media portrayed it as the focal point of the call and said Xi told Trump it's "the most important issue in China-U.S. relations" and warned Trump to "handle arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution."