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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 6 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Iranian state media released a 14-point peace proposal that the White House rejected as a “complete fabrication.”
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Iranian state media released a 14-point peace proposal that the White House rejected as a “complete fabrication.”
Open source reportGeography
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White House dossier
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Israel
The Knesset passed legislation allowing the prime minister to suspend foreign media operations on national-security grounds. Benjamin Netanyahu intended to use the law against Al Jazeera and that the White House called the prospective ban concerning.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 28 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication." LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine. CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree. EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication." LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine. CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree. EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data comes out tomorrow. Analyst consensus estimates predict a 2.8% year-over-year rise in overall prices due to the effect of new tariffs on imported goods. •Tomorrow is also the end of the 90-day tariff pause Pres. Trump agreed with China to temporarily reduce U.S. tariffs on most Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to a more tolerable 30%. Envoys have aligned on an extension in principle, but it still needs to be formalized. •Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday. More on that below. •Beijing hosts the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games starting Friday. Over 500 humanoid "athletes" will compete in 538 events within 26 different disciplines, ranging from track and field to 5-a-side football (soccer). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,609/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $120,596 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,762/ton •Ethereum: $4,198 •Gold: $3,363/toz - [Gold futures rose after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency unexpectedly ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to new import tariffs - including a 39% levy on imports from Switzerland, a top exporter of gold to the U.S. Markets then calmed after the White House said it will soon issue an executive order "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars.] •Lead: $2,008/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.00/barrel •Zinc: $2,827/ton UKRAINE •Following U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's meetings in Moscow last week, the White House announced that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in person in Alaska this Friday (Aug. 15) to discuss ideas for ending the war in Ukraine. •Trump noted that a possible ceasefire proposal would involve "some swapping of territories," which analysts took to mean that Ukraine would be asked to cede some of its eastern regions to their Russian occupants. •Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of a land swap, and Pres. Zelensky pre-emptively reiterated that position yesterday in advance of Friday's talks. Zelensky wasn't invited to Alaska on Friday, and Ukrainians are worried that Trump will make unwanted concessions to Putin on their behalf. •[Zelensky also pointed out the irony of the Putin-Trump meeting - in which Putin hopes to reestablish control over eastern Ukraine largely on the basis that it was once Russian territory - taking place in Alaska, which was also previously Russian territory. A cash-strapped Russia sold Alaska to the U.S. in 1867 for $7.2 million (about $154 million today), and thus far Putin hasn't mentioned wanting to take it back.] •Seven European leaders - including France's Pres. Macron and Germany's Chancellor Merz - penned a joint statement standing behind a sidelined Ukraine and declaring that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine." European foreign ministers will meet today to align their support for Ukraine ahead of Friday's summit excluding it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash 2 April Update Iran Israel carried out a brazen strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisors - including three generals. Israel acknowledged the strike but rejected the notion that the building was a diplomatic facility and said it was a military building instead. The distinction is important because - as one NGO director noted - targeting a known diplomatic building would be "akin to targeting Iran on its own soil." Israel seems to be escalating its covert war on Iranian targets in a manner calculated to hinder Iran's offensive operations without drawing it and its proxies into all-out war. Indeed, Iran's response to the Damascus strikes was cautious: Tehran vowed revenge "at the appropriate time and place." Its proxies were more audacious in their revenge threats: the head of the Iraq-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah Brigades militia threatened to arm over 12,000 Jordanians to exact retribution on Israel for the Damascus strike. Israel and Gaza Israel's Knesset passed a law that will allow PM Netanyahu to temporarily block foreign media outlets from operating in the country on national security grounds, and Netanyahu said he will promptly use the new law to ban Al Jazeera, which he has accused of being "a Hamas mouthpiece" and a "terrorist channel" for its sympathetic coverage of Palestinian causes. The White House called the looming ban "concerning" for its challenge to the free press. Separately, the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) said an Israeli airstrike killed seven of its foreign national aid workers in Gaza. Israel said it was "carrying out an in-depth examination" of the "tragic incident," and it's already drawing criticism from the aid community. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine launched a drone assault on an oil refinery deep inside Russia in Tatarstan, which is over 600 miles (1,000 km) from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities said the attack caused minimal damage but later conceded several people were injured. China Chinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new, Porsche-looking Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day - even though it launched in a market already crowded with inexpensive competitors. Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford. DRC Pres. Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka to be DRC's first female prime minister. Tuluka was formerly DRC's planning minister, and will now be called upon to craft a plan to bring peace to the restive east of the country. North Korea North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast early this morning - its third this year. The UN is no longer monitoring the sanctions violations that helped supply North Korea with kit for building missiles like this, thanks to a recent Russian veto on a motion to extend the monitoring program. Some analysts linked Russia's veto to an alleged weapons procurement agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
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