Ceasefire Strains, Ukraine Financing and Regional Border Pressures

Off Leash update 28 May 2026

IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication."

LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure.

UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine.

CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree.

EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.