Political Upheaval and Security Developments Across Bolivia, Kenya, Iran and the DRC

Off Leash Update 27 June

Bolivia •A senior Bolivian general, Juan José Zuñiga, staged a brief and bizarre coup attempt yesterday. •His team of soldiers drove a military vehicle through a palace door in an effort to oust democratically-elected President Luis Arce, but retreated less than three hours later - after it became clear that the rest of the military and police force remained loyal to Arce's command. •Just before he was arrested, Zuñiga claimed that Arce asked him to stage a coup: "The president told me, 'The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" •There may be some truth to that: Arce is competing with his popular predecessor, Evo Morales (who was ousted in 2019 in what he called a "coup"), for their leftist party's 2025 nomination, and squashing a coup attempt helped him look like a patriotic defender of democracy. Arce was quick to call Bolivians out to the streets to cheer for him and "against this coup d’état." •The NYT pointed out that Bolivia has had 190 coups or revolutions in its 200 years of existence. China •Taiwan's government warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to mainland China, where authorities recently threatened to prosecute and execute "diehard" advocates for Taiwanese independence. [Beijing has been tightening its grip on Taiwan as a reaction to the election of new president Lai Ching Te, who the CCP considers to be pro-Taiwanese independence even though he hasn't explicitly advocated for it.] Kenya •Kenya's Pres. Ruto rejected the proposed tax bill that sparked a wave of protests in Nairobi: "Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill, I concede, and therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn." •Kenya has a heavy debt burden, so it will need to find money to make repayments from something other than this rejected tax on basic goods. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's cricket team lost to South Africa in the semifinals of the T20 World Cup, but had a good run: the country is still celebrating the team's surprise upset over the reigning T20 champion, Australia. Iran •Two of the five conservative candidates approved to run in Iran's presidential election tomorrow have dropped out to consolidate the conservative vote. •Their withdrawal leaves three hardliners running against one moderate (by Iranian standards), heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian. •Of the hardliners, parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and ex-nuclear negotiator Saaed Jalili are polling strongest. •Analysts suggest Pezeshkian has a chance of winning if Ghalibaf and Jalili both stay in the race and split the conservative vote. •Iran's presidency is a figurehead role: no matter who wins, the conservative clerics will still dictate policy. DRC •A suspected M23 mortar attack killed two South African peacekeepers - and wounded 20 others - near Goma. Other News •Police in the Maldives arrested Minister for the Environment, Climate Change, and Energy Fathimath Shamnaz Ali Saleem for allegedly vexing her boss, Pres. Mohamed Muizzu, with a "black magic" curse. •The witchcraft accusation seems bogus: if she were really a sorceress, she would presumably use her powers - and her post - to stop her country from sinking into the sea. •Lastly, a U.S. court sentenced former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández to 45 years in prison for collaborating with drug gangs to traffick hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S. while he was president.