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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Former president Evo Morales accused President Luis Arce of orchestrating an attempt on his life, while a deputy security minister said police were examining whether Morales staged the incident. Their party-leadership conflict will likely worsen before the next election.
Unverified development · updated through
Former president Evo Morales accused President Luis Arce of orchestrating an attempt on his life, while a deputy security minister said police were examining whether Morales staged the incident. Their party-leadership conflict will likely worsen before the next election.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Evo Morales dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Bolivia
Zúñiga’s allegation that Arce asked him to stage an incident to improve the president’s popularity, then assesses that the claim may contain some truth because of Arce’s rivalry with Evo Morales.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 27 June Bolivia •A senior Bolivian general, Juan José Zuñiga, staged a brief and bizarre coup attempt yesterday. •His team of soldiers drove a military vehicle through a palace door in an effort to oust democratically-elected President Luis Arce, but retreated less than three hours later - after it became clear that the rest of the military and police force remained loyal to Arce's command. •Just before he was arrested, Zuñiga claimed that Arce asked him to stage a coup: "The president told me, 'The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" •There may be some truth to that: Arce is competing with his popular predecessor, Evo Morales (who was ousted in 2019 in what he called a "coup"), for their leftist party's 2025 nomination, and squashing a coup attempt helped him look like a patriotic defender of democracy. Arce was quick to call Bolivians out to the streets to cheer for him and "against this coup d’état." •The NYT pointed out that Bolivia has had 190 coups or revolutions in its 200 years of existence. China •Taiwan's government warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to mainland China, where authorities recently threatened to prosecute and execute "diehard" advocates for Taiwanese independence. [Beijing has been tightening its grip on Taiwan as a reaction to the election of new president Lai Ching Te, who the CCP considers to be pro-Taiwanese independence even though he hasn't explicitly advocated for it.] Kenya •Kenya's Pres. Ruto rejected the proposed tax bill that sparked a wave of protests in Nairobi: "Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill, I concede, and therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn." •Kenya has a heavy debt burden, so it will need to find money to make repayments from something other than this rejected tax on basic goods. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's cricket team lost to South Africa in the semifinals of the T20 World Cup, but had a good run: the country is still celebrating the team's surprise upset over the reigning T20 champion, Australia. Iran •Two of the five conservative candidates approved to run in Iran's presidential election tomorrow have dropped out to consolidate the conservative vote. •Their withdrawal leaves three hardliners running against one moderate (by Iranian standards), heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian. •Of the hardliners, parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and ex-nuclear negotiator Saaed Jalili are polling strongest. •Analysts suggest Pezeshkian has a chance of winning if Ghalibaf and Jalili both stay in the race and split the conservative vote. •Iran's presidency is a figurehead role: no matter who wins, the conservative clerics will still dictate policy. DRC •A suspected M23 mortar attack killed two South African peacekeepers - and wounded 20 others - near Goma. Other News •Police in the Maldives arrested Minister for the Environment, Climate Change, and Energy Fathimath Shamnaz Ali Saleem for allegedly vexing her boss, Pres. Mohamed Muizzu, with a "black magic" curse. •The witchcraft accusation seems bogus: if she were really a sorceress, she would presumably use her powers - and her post - to stop her country from sinking into the sea. •Lastly, a U.S. court sentenced former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández to 45 years in prison for collaborating with drug gangs to traffick hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S. while he was president.
Open source report