Off Leash Intel · loading
4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Repsol is probably correct in believing it can operate the field more effectively than PDVSA.
Assessment development · updated through
Repsol is probably correct in believing it can operate the field more effectively than PDVSA.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Repsol dossier
5 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ghadames, Murzuq and Sirte basins
Eni and BP began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin after a ten-year hiatus, while Repsol and OMV were preparing to resume activity in the Murzuq and Sirte basins respectively.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 16 April IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are reportedly discussing an extension to the two-week temporary ceasefire that currently expires next Wednesday (April 22) to allow more time to negotiate a more permanent truce. •Pres. Trump downplayed reports of a possible extension and said it would be "preferable" to finalize a permanent truce instead of prolonging a temporary one. Iranian state media reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also opposes an extension. However, both leaders likely prefer an extension over a return to war. LEBANON •Pres. Trump said in a Truth Social post that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today. •He didn't explicitly say which leaders would speak, but it probably won't be the heads of state: it's hard to imagine Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to talk to Lebanese President Aoun after derisively rejecting Aoun's outreach for months. •Separately, the Israeli military said that its April 8 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were even more devastating to the militant group's command structure and operational capabilities than its September 2024 pager attack, "but both targeted hundreds of terrorists and within 60 seconds." •The April 8 operation was based on extensive intelligence that tracked 250 Hezbollah operatives - including a large share of the group's mid-level commanders - and simultaneously targeted them in many different locations throughout Lebanon. •Israeli officials assess that Hezbollah's command is still reeling from the April 8 blow, though its rocket fire hasn't abated yet. DRC •DRC's market regulator, ARECOMS, formally established a state strategic cobalt reserve in a bid to expand its control over cobalt supply chains and capture a greater share of the value of its mineral wealth. •The new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve. •It also forces them to max out their quarterly export quotas because they will now forfeit any cobalt they mined but failed to export before each quarterly deadline, with the excess also going into the state reserve. •DRC's cobalt miners will resent the state's new value capture, but there's not much they can do about it: 70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands. VENEZUELA •Spain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day. •Repsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has: in the new agreement, Repsol committed to tripling the field's production within three years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov Mozambique •Fearing spillover effects from post-election violence in Mozambique, South Africa closed its main border crossing with its eastern neighbor at Lebombo. •Mozambique's independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second to the long-ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo - has called for mass protests today (and then revolution) over allegations that Frelimo rigged the vote. •Frelimo's defense minister has warned that the army and police standing by to quell protests. They've used violence against protesters in recent weeks, killing at least 18, and seem prepared to quash new demonstrations with the same level of force. Iran •Iran's currency fell to an all-time low of 703,000 rials per U.S. dollar yesterday on fears that Pres.-elect Trump will institute tougher sanctions once he takes office. •By comparison, the rial traded at 32,000 per dollar in 2015 when Iran's nuclear deal was signed and 584,000 this July 30 when Pres. Pezeshkian was sworn in. •Though currency markets suggest otherwise, some Iranians interviewed in the NYT expressed hope for negotiations during Trump's presidency and optimism that Trump will help end the attritive wars Iran's proxies are fighting against Israel. Libya •After resolving (for now) its civil dispute over oil sector leadership, Libya is making bold moves to reinvigorate the sector. •First, it pushed three existing exploration permit-holders - OMV, Eni / BP, and Repsol - to resume operations last month. •Now, Bloomberg reports that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory (which was legitimate, unlike Maduro's recent win) and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries. •However, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S., and Maduro himself conceded yesterday that "In his first administration, President Donald Trump did not go well for us." (Editor's note: Winter is coming for the Maduro Cartel) Germany •Germany's Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, effectively ending Scholz's Social Democrat party's coalition with Lindner's Free Democrats. •Their three-way coalition with the Green Party was always a fragile marriage of convenience with no unifying core objectives, so its dissolution was bound to happen at some point. What triggered it now was last week's leak of a position paper the pro-business Linder wrote criticizing his left-leaning coalition partners' progressive fiscal policies. Australia •Australia's government proposed a ban on the use of social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X by children under 16; citing the "harm to our kids" caused by unrealistic body image ideals and messages of misogyny. •Australia's ban could go into effect next year, and it's the strictest social media ban proposed to date: it adopts the highest age limit of any global bill so far, and makes no exemptions for parental consent or pre-existing accounts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source report