U.S.-Venezuela pressure, DRC ceasefire talks and upcoming political events

Off Leash update 17 Nov

COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton

VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday.

DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict.

CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff.

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