Off Leash Intel · loading
11 direct mentions across 11 briefings, with 8 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund may have limited available cash after committing much of its estimated $1 trillion portfolio to projects that are not yet producing returns.
Unverified development · updated through
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund may have limited available cash after committing much of its estimated $1 trillion portfolio to projects that are not yet producing returns.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mohammed bin Salman dossier
8 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Saudi Arabia
King Salman had a lung infection and that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman postponed a planned visit to Japan to remain with him.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Venezuelan oil revenue and an AI cybersecurity incident.
Open source reportRenewed U.S. strikes and a blockade targeting Iran, growing investment in routes around Hormuz, potential UK action against Iranian-linked groups, renewed Houthi conflict, and slower Chinese growth.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Nov IRAN •The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution asking Iran to provide an update "without delay" on the status of its enriched uranium stocks and the nuclear sites that were damaged by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June. •Iran promptly declined, and instead said it would renege on its commitment to give IAEA inspectors access to the damaged nuclear sites "until a decision is made and a conclusion is reached between us, the IAEA, and others." •No decision is likely to be reached soon, since Iran's talks with both the EU and the U.S. are at a stalemate. Meanwhile, some analysts think Iran is forging ahead on nuclear development at a new enrichment site called Pickax Mountain. SAUDI ARABIA •New media reports suggest that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) may not have enough dry powder to make good on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS's) pledge to invest $1 trillion in the U.S. over the next four years. •Eleven people with insight into the fund's operations - including employees, board members, investors, and their representatives - told the NYT that PIF has scant cash for new opportunities because it has deployed almost all of its estimated $1 trillion to projects that aren't generating returns yet. •That said, even if PIF lacks the cash, Saudi has ample other sources of capital that MBS is eager to invest abroad. NIGERIA •Gunmen broke into St. Mary's Catholic boarding school in Papiri, Niger State, overnight and reportedly abducted some pupils - though it's unclear how many. •Niger State officials partly blamed school staff for putting students in jeopardy by defying a state order to temporarily close all boarding schools, in light of a similar attack on a school in neighboring Kebbi State earlier this week. [Papiri is about 165 km (100 miles) - or roughly four hours on bad Nigerian roads - from the Kebbi school that 24 (Muslim) schoolgirls were taken from on Monday.] •Pres. Tinubu is keen to show he's taking action to address insecurity before Pres. Trump makes good on his threat to send U.S. troops to intervene. Tinubu cancelled his plans to attend the G20 summit in South Africa to focus on the school abductions, and he ordered his defense minister to temporarily relocate to Kebbi State to lead the response directly. VENEZUELA •Norwegian organizers planning the Dec. 10 Nobel Peace Prize ceremony confirmed to local media that this year's winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, intends to leave hiding in Venezuela and travel to Norway to accept her award in person. •Officials in Nicolas Maduro's government quickly seized on the opportunity to further harass Machado as she prepares to be honored for her bravery in standing up to their persistent intimidation thus far. •Attorney General Tarek Saab said she would be "considered a fugitive" if she left the country, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello preemptively celebrated her departure, adding sardonically: "we're going to miss her." •These new threats are unlikely to bother Machado, who already faces far graver charges than fleeing arrest. But she may not be able to return while Maduro remains in power. •It's unclear whether she intends to return quickly or will try to lead the opposition from abroad. Earlier this week, she published a new "freedom manifesto" that declared Venezuela to be "at the edge of a new era," but provided few details on her near-term plans or vision for the country.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday. DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict. CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday. DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict. CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff. 1/2
Open source reportPalestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas condemned the October 7 attacks in a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Abbas also called for Hamas to give up control of Gaza, release all hostages and permit presidential elections within a year.
Open source reportRussia’s response to a proposed Ukraine ceasefire, renewed instability in Tigray; Gaza resettlement outreach, Mozambique LNG financing and Syria’s temporary constitution.
Open source reportU.S. and Ukrainian officials would begin talks in Saudi Arabia on March 11. Zelensky was expected to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman separately for economic discussions rather than attend the delegation-level talks.
Open source reportU.S. and Ukrainian officials will begin talks in Saudi Arabia the following day. Zelensky will meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman separately while Ukrainian delegates meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials.
Open source reportCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and warned it against potential direct attacks on Iran.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May Iran •Iranian state media blamed the helicopter crash that killed Pres. Raisi on "technical failure," and that seems like a reasonable explanation for it: the Bell 212 helicopter Raisi was flying in was over 40 years old and weather conditions were poor. •Ayatollah Khamenei lamented the loss of his protégé Raisi, but vowed that there would be "no disruption" to the government. That's true: Iran's president is a figurehead beholden to the clerics, who will ensure that Raisi's successor is another conservative hardliner. Gaza •The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor requested arrest warrants for both Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against humanity, emphasizing that "international law and the laws of armed conflict apply to all." •In this case, those laws probably won't be applied to either Netanyahu or Sinwar in court: even if judges decide to issue the requested warrants, the process would take months, and neither Israel nor Gaza recognizes the court's authority, so Netanyahu and Sinwar would be safe from arrest as long as they don't travel to any of the court's 124 member countries. •Separately, U.S National Security Advisor Sullivan traveled to Israel to nudge PM Netanyahu toward a ceasefire agreement linked to a "political strategy" for Gaza's future. China •China added three U.S. defense contractors that sell to Taiwan - General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security - to its list of "unreliable entities" that are banned from exporting to or importing from China. •A U.S. Senate inquiry found that BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volkswagen imported parts purchased (indirectly) from a Chinese supplier known to use forced labor in Xinjiang province. Sen. Wyden (D-OR) blamed the manufacturers for not doing enough to vet their suppliers: "automakers are sticking their heads in the sand and then swearing they can’t find any forced labor in their supply chains." Ukraine •Ukraine implemented nationwide rolling blackouts for the first time this year to conserve precious power supplies, which have been constrained by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. •Russia's offensive in northern Ukraine has slowed down, and Ukrainian forces are holding the Russians back between Kharkiv and the border. Afghanistan •An explosion in the Taliban's political heartland of Kandahar killed at least one person yesterday. •The Taliban's official statements depicted the blast as a minor incident that randomly targeted civilians, but local reports claimed it was a much more serious attack that targeted Taliban security forces, killing far more than one person. Saudi Arabia •Saudi's King Salman is suffering from a lung infection and it's severe enough that his son, Crown Prince MBS, postponed a planned trip to Japan to be with his ailing father. Other News •The UK's High Court ruled that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can appeal his pending extradition to the U.S. to face charges under the Espionage Act. He will try to appeal on the basis that - as a foreign national (he's Australian) - he wouldn't get a fair trial in the U.S.
Open source report