Off Leash Intel · loading
6 direct mentions across 6 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian fighters supporting the RSF, including training at an Emirati military base. The UAE’s denial.
Unverified development · updated through
Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian fighters supporting the RSF, including training at an Emirati military base. The UAE’s denial.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Human Rights Watch dossier
4 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
El Geneina, West Darfur
Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and allied forces of genocide against the Massalit in El Geneina and called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 12 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump threatened to carry out strikes on Iran for a third straight night before abruptly calling them off with an announcement that a peace deal is "in pretty final shape" and could be signed as soon as this weekend. •Iran's state media contradicted Trump's claim and reported that "nothing is finalized" yet, but Iranian officials confirmed to Al Jazeera off the record that Iran's leaders are indeed reviewing a memorandum of understanding they received from U.S. negotiators. •Like Trump, Iran continued to make public threats while working towards a peace deal behind the scenes. State media broadcast the military's threats to target regional assets linked to Elon Musk and his companies in revenge for the key role his Starlink internet service has played in U.S. military operations against Iran. •Separately, the World Bank downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.5%, blaming energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. Likewise, the UK reported its first monthly economic contraction since August, citing the effect of the war on output. UK •UK defence minister John Healey unexpectedly resigned yesterday, citing Prime Minister Starmer's failure to adequately invest in the military: "I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations, and could make the country less safe." SWITZERLAND •Switzerland is putting a unique question to a vote on Sunday, with a referendum on whether to enact a population cap. •If passed, the measure would oblige the government to act - e.g. by sharpening asylum and family unification rules or ending free movement across borders with the European Union - once the country's population reaches 10 million (vs. 9.1 million today). •Polling suggests Swiss voters are roughly split on the idea, with slightly more against it than for it. But experts say polls often misjudge support for immigration-related proposals. SOUTH KOREA •Ousted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister were each sentenced to 30 years in prison for ordering provocative drone flights into North Korea in 2024. Prosecutors argued that Yoon ordered the incursions to stir trouble with Pyongyang and justify his declaration of martial law. •Yoon is already jailed on other charges including rebellion, for which prosecutors had sought the death penalty. Yoon is appealing his convictions. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban enforcers detained at least 30 women in Herat over alleged "noncompliance" with its strict female dress rules. A local witness told Human Rights Watch that "All the women were wearing hijabs, but the style did not meet their [the police’s] preferences." •The arrests sparked protests that security forces met with excessive force, killing a child and beating up dozens of demonstrators.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 May 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Yesterday, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day, which commemorates fallen soldiers (as opposed to Veterans' Day, which celebrates all who have served). •Tomorrow is Eid al Adha, which marks the end of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Despite the war and Iran's strikes on regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, around 1.7 million Muslims took part in this year's pilgrimage. •U.S. SecState Rubio will meet with his counterparts from the other three Quad countries - Australia, India, and Japan - for talks in Delhi today. One of their chief concerns will be finding ways to counter China's growing geopolitical and economic heft. •Paris Saint-Germain plays Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final in Budapest on Saturday. •Colombia votes for president on Sunday. Far-left candidate Iván Cepeda is likely to win the most votes - but not a majority - in Sunday's first round, which will pit him against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right rival Paloma Valencia in a run-off on June 21. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,650/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,092/ton •Bitcoin: $77,169 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,668/ton •Ethereum: $2,120 •Gold: $4,511/toz •Lead: $2,012/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $92.46/barrel •Zinc: $3,543/ton IRAN •The U.S. struck several missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran in what CENTCOM called an act of self-defense "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." •Despite the fresh U.S. strikes, the temporary ceasefire is still largely holding up as negotiators continue to make slow progress towards a permanent peace deal during mediated talks in Doha. •Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that a "framework" for a truce had been agreed, but it's unlikely to lead to a conclusive, war-ending agreement. As The Economist quipped: "At best...it will be a deal to keep talking about a final deal." ISRAEL •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump demanded that several more Middle Eastern countries - namely, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar - sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of a future deal to end the Iran war. •Critics complained that Trump's new demand adds further complexity to deliberations that are already dauntingly complicated. Plus, several of the countries in question have steadfastly refused to cave to past U.S. pressure to join the pact and are unlikely to suddenly reconsider now. Pakistan and Saudi, in particular, have long maintained that they would only consider joining the Accords and normalizing relations with Israel after Palestine has a clear path to statehood. LEBANON •Three senior Iranian officials told the NYT that the latest Iran ceasefire proposal would also end Israel's war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. •However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu struck a very different tone in a video statement announcing an escalation in Israel's war against Hezbollah: "We are not removing our foot from the pedal. On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more." SUDAN •Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. •It's been well documented that Colombian fighters are backing the RSF, but this is the first compelling claim that the UAE hosted Colombians for training at an Emirati military base before deploying them to Sudan. •The UAE denied the latest accusations - just as it has denied backing the RSF in the first place. GUINEA •Guinea - which is by far the world's largest bauxite producer - announced plans to introduce bauxite export controls next month. •The new curbs will disproportionately affect China, which receives almost three-quarters of Guinea's exported bauxite and processes it into alumina and aluminum.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 May Ukraine •Russia's rapid recent advances have Ukraine and its allies worried, and a senior U.S. military official hinted - for the first time - that NATO will probably eventually send military trainers to Ukraine to support its defense directly: "we'll get there eventually." •Deploying U.S. or NATO troops to Ukraine would not only put NATO trainers at risk on the battlefields; it would also raise the risk of turning Russia's war on Ukraine into a broader Russia vs. NATO war. •Though Ukraine is struggling to repel Russian advances in the north, it carried out two days of successful drone strikes on Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Satellite images showed at least three destroyed Russian jets and significant damage to buildings, including a power substation. Russia •Pres. Putin finished his two-day trip to China with a visit to Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city with strong Russian ties where China carries out some of its most advanced defense research. •Putin's trip seemed to go well, and he'll probably benefit from some of the defense technologies developed at the research centers he visited in Harbin. Pres. Xi even hugged him goodbye in a rare show of affection between the two uncuddly leaders. Gaza •Israel is sending more ground troops to support its invasion of Rafah, which started out as a limited incursion to avoid crossing the "red lines" Pres. Biden set. Even with added troops in Rafah, Israel will still likely stay clear of any real "red lines" that could jeopardize U.S. weapons shipments. •Aid shipments began arriving in Gaza via the new, U.S.-built pier that opened this week. CentCom was careful to clarify that no U.S. troops went ashore in Gaza during or after the construction of the pier. •The Arab League met in Manama and called for a return to pre-1967 borders and the deployment of a new UN peacekeeping force in "the occupied Palestinian territories" (Gaza and the West Bank). •A UN spokesman responded that it would be premature to send peacekeepers to Gaza now: "there first has to be a peace to keep." North Korea •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, denied that North Korea has supplied any weapons to Russia, calling suggestions otherwise "the most absurd paradox." •The U.S. and South Korea disagree: they believe North Korea has sent Russia artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons; and some analysts think North Korea's recent short-range missile tests were demonstrations of weapons it planned to sell to Russia. Mozambique •Human Rights Watch reported that some of the perpetrators of Al Shabaab's May 10 attack in Cabo Delgado were child soldiers as young as 13, suggesting the Islamic State-aligned terrorist group (which is unrelated to Somalia's Al Shabaab except in name and violent inclination) is getting desperate for new recruits. •It's a war crime to recruit and employ child soldiers - but groups like Al Shabaab aren't exactly upstanding defenders of the UN Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Other News •Billionaire data privacy defender Frank McCourt said he was amassing a group of investors to offer to buy TikTok from its Chinese parent company. •McCourt sees the acquisition as an opportunity to "create the alternative to the current internet, which has been colonized by large platforms," and envisions a new scenario where users can "control their identity, [and] own and control their data." Note: he should have just invested in https://t.co/fvHOU3SWuy
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 May Gaza Pres. Netanyahu was displeased with Pres. Biden's threat to stop sending certain highly destructive weapons to Israel if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah (even though Israel appears to have toned down its ambitions for Rafah to a smaller-scale operation that probably won't cross Biden's red line) Netanyahu - who must appease hardliners - insisted Israel could (theoretically) carry out the full-scale plan alone: "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone...if necessary we will fight with our fingernails." It probably will not be necessary. Ukraine and Russia Ukrainian drones struck two oil depots and a refinery deep inside Russia over the past 24 hours: one was over 700 miles (1,100 km) inside the border. An oil expert estimated to the NYT that the attacks incapacitated over 10% of Russia's refining capacity - though given the importance of oil to Russia's war funding and foreign earnings, it'll surely be rebuilt quickly. During Pres. Xi's visit to Hungary, nationalist president Orban enthusiastically endorsed China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese plan was released to great fanfare over a year ago (Feb. 2023) but has failed to gain much traction: Hungary is the only European country to endorse it. China's promise to invest in building a BYD electric vehicle production plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orban's support. Separately, EU member states agreed to a plan to use the proceeds (e.g. interest) from Russian central bank funds frozen in European banks to augment Ukraine's defenses and fund post-war reconstruction. Those proceeds are expected to free up about €3 billion ($3.3 billion) per year. Sudan Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur. The report called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan. Sahel Chad's military ruler and incumbent interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a very predictable election after sidelining rivals - lethally in one case. The opposition cried foul.
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