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One consolidated view of the Africa theater — every tracked development, actor, and source report, stitched into a single evolving narrative.
Latest assessment
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will win the parliamentary election, arguing that parts of Amhara and Tigray will not vote and that leading rivals have been sidelined or jailed.
Assessment development · updated through
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will win the parliamentary election, arguing that parts of Amhara and Tigray will not vote and that leading rivals have been sidelined or jailed.
Open source reportGeography
Every mapped development in this theater. Marker precision is disclosed on selection; country and regional centroids show scope, not an exact incident site.
Africa theater
39 mapped developments across 6 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Rwanda
President Kagame commemorated the 30th anniversary of the genocide’s beginning; Rwanda’s subsequent progress ahead of his July reelection campaign.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Ethiopia votes in parliamentary elections today. Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party is sure to win, since large parts of the rebellious regions of Amhara and Tigray won't vote and Abiy's strongest rivals have been sidelined or jailed.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will win the parliamentary election, arguing that parts of Amhara and Tigray will not vote and that leading rivals have been sidelined or jailed.
Open source reportHuman Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. It's been well documented that Colombian fighters are backing the RSF, but this is the first compelling claim that the UAE hosted Colombians for training at an Emirati military base before deploying them to Sudan. The UAE denied the latest accusations
Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian fighters supporting the RSF, including training at an Emirati military base. The UAE’s denial.
Open source reportIdris's plan is unlikely to gain traction; For the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to agree to give up their arms and retreat to supervised camps.
The RSF is unlikely to surrender its gains and that Washington will favor a humanitarian truce rather than Idris’s proposal. The claimed U.S. position is not independently corroborated.
Open source reportSudan's Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, pitched a peace plan that he called "homemade - not imposed on us" to the UN Security Council (UNSC).
Prime Minister Kamil Idris proposed that the RSF disarm and withdraw to supervised camps. The RSF recently captured El Fasher and holds the advantage in Darfur.
Open source reportGlencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework.
Glencore exported a small test shipment of cobalt under the DRC’s new quota framework while retaining a large stockpile. Limited exports by Glencore and other miners indicate that the rules remain opaque or difficult to follow.
Open source reportRwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira
Rwanda-backed M23 forces advanced toward Uvira and that approximately 200,000 civilians fled fighting after a U.S.-brokered DRC-Rwanda ceasefire. Competing accusations from the Congolese and Rwandan governments, including unsupported claims about Rwandan weapons and troop deployments.
Open source reportRSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) unconvincingly promised to investigate the concerning accusations against his troops, but the U.S., UN, and others are calling for urgent, genuine action to prevent what many fear could become another full-blown genocide in Darfur.
RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo promised an investigation while the United States, United Nations and others called for urgent action amid fears of another genocide in Darfur. Dagalo’s promise is unconvincing.
Open source reportThe World Health Organization raised concerns over credible reports that Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 460 people in the main hospital in El Fasher upon capturing the state capital from the army over the weekend.
The World Health Organization raised concern over reports that Rapid Support Forces personnel killed 460 people in El Fasher’s main hospital after capturing the state capital from the army. Broader allegations of ethnically targeted atrocities.
Open source reportneither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons
The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces remain unwilling to negotiate, citing their denials of indirect talks; continued weapons acquisition.
Open source reportKhartoum's airport was slated to reopen for domestic flights tomorrow... but an overnight RSF drone attack looks likely to postpone the reopening.
An overnight RSF drone attack threatened the planned resumption of domestic flights at Khartoum’s airport and followed two reported strikes on army bases northwest of the city.
Open source reportThe Seychelles concludes its three-day run-off presidential election on Saturday, and Cameroon votes for president on Sunday.
Seychelles would conclude a three-day presidential runoff on October 11 and Cameroon would hold a presidential election on October 12.
Open source reportthe death sentence is unlikely to ever be carried out, and the peace process is already so broken that a vindictive verdict against Kabila is unlikely to do much further damage.
Kabila’s conviction was probably politically motivated but is unlikely to be carried out or substantially worsen an already impaired peace process concerning the conflict in eastern DRC.
Open source reportSome Congo watchers - especially those aligned with former president Joseph Kabila - expressed concern that the death sentence a military court handed Kabila on Tuesday will derail the bumbling and half-hearted peace process that DRC and the M23 / Rwanda entered into over the summer.
A military court sentenced former president Joseph Kabila to death and that some observers fear the verdict could undermine the DRC-M23/Rwanda peace process.
Open source reportThere's credible evidence that the military has committed many horrific crimes of its own... The UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR)'s latest report on Sudan... noted that both sides have escalated attacks near civilian centers in 2025, leading to a near doubling in civilian fatalities in the first six months of this year vs. last year.
According to an OHCHR, report the finding that both sides escalated attacks near civilian centers in 2025, nearly doubling civilian fatalities during the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2024. Serious abuses by Sudan’s military.
Open source reportSudan's military blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for a "horrific" drone strike that killed over 70 worshippers at a mosque in Darfur on Friday.
Sudan’s military accused the Rapid Support Forces of conducting a drone strike that killed more than 70 worshippers at a mosque in Darfur.
Open source reportThe Seychelles votes for president and parliament Thursday.
Seychelles was due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on Thursday.
Open source reportThe army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are now battling over Kordofan... civilians in El Fasher... are starving en masse under the RSF's siege of the city. Neither side is gaining much traction, and the conflict looks likely to grind on.
The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are contesting Kordofan while the RSF besieges army-held El Fasher. Widespread civilian suffering; neither belligerent is gaining decisive traction.
Open source reportDRC is close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million... per year.
The DRC was close to a four-year agreement paying FC Barcelona €10 million to €11.5 million annually to display “The Heart of Africa” on training and warm-up jerseys. Deals with AS Monaco and AC Milan; the DRC seeks to emulate Rwanda’s football-based tourism promotion.
Open source reportThe army now claims that the RSF has fled Omdurman, but ongoing gunfire suggests that claim may be premature.
Fighting in Omdurman; the army’s claim that the Rapid Support Forces had fled was called into question by continuing gunfire. The army had recaptured nearby Khartoum roughly two months earlier but had not secured the wider capital state.
Open source reportwith the Rapid Support Forces strafing the junta's interim capital in Port Sudan, the idea of civilian government still seems far off.
The Rapid Support Forces are attacking the military-led authorities’ interim capital in Port Sudan; civilian government remains distant despite the prime-ministerial appointment.
Open source reportSudan's military leader, Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, appointed former UN official Kamil Idris as the junta's prime minister.
Military leader Abdel Fatah al-Burhan appointed former UN official Kamil Idris, making him Sudan’s first prime minister since the 2021 coup. The African Union welcomed the appointment as movement toward civilian government.
Open source reportThe SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control.
An SAF allegation that RSF forces killed more than 30 civilians during an operation to capture El Fasher.
Open source reportThe European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025.
The European Commission and EU member states pledged €522 million in aid while asserting that a $3.8 billion UN emergency-funding gap remained for 2025.
Open source reportBoth sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting."
Both sides remain skeptical and prepared to resume combat. Rwanda and allied rebels are not relinquishing Goma or other gains, while quoting the Congolese military as reserving the right to respond to hostile movements.
Open source reportthe leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too.
The Rwanda-backed AFC coalition, which includes M23, supported a ceasefire and announced it would withdraw from Walikale after capturing the mining town following talks between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame. Tshisekedi asked Congolese troops to observe the ceasefire without issuing an order.
Open source reportThe army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan.
Recent army gains do not end the war because the RSF retains parts of Khartoum and extensive territory in western Sudan.
Open source reportAfter seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel.
Following its seizure of the presidential palace from the RSF, Sudan’s military recaptured the Central Bank, intelligence headquarters and Corinthia Hotel over the weekend.
Open source reportMeanwhile, the military is gaining ground against the RSF in Omdurman, which is across the Nile from Khartoum.
Sudan’s military is gaining territory against the RSF in Omdurman, across the Nile from Khartoum.
Open source reportThe genocide accusation and attached sanctions won't have much of an immediate effect on the raging war since Hemedti is already well armed. In fact, the move could turn out to be counterproductive if it repels Hemedti from negotiations.
The sanctions are unlikely to alter the war immediately because Dagalo is already well armed and could reduce his willingness to negotiate.
Open source reportThe U.S. Treasury formally accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of perpetrating genocide in Sudan and slapped additional sanctions on RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) and seven Emirati companies that have helped him export gold and import weapons.
The U.S. Treasury accused the Rapid Support Forces of genocide and sanctioned RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and seven Emirati companies involved in gold exports and weapons imports. This is the second U.S. genocide determination concerning Sudan, following the Darfur-era determination involving the Janjaweed.
Open source reportThe RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin.
The Sudanese army was unwilling to negotiate immediately because it likely sought to secure further territorial gains before entering talks, despite RSF openness to a truce.
Open source reportThe Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks.
According to The Economist, a report that the Sudanese armed forces made gains against the Rapid Support Forces in central Sennar State and Khartoum. The RSF retained control across much of southwestern Sudan.
Open source reportNiger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium."
Mining Minister Ousmane Abarchi said Niger had met Russian companies interested in exploiting uranium and other resources. The junta is moving toward Russian participation while barring French companies because France does not recognize the post-coup government.
Open source reportThe UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
A UN official urged outside actors to stop arming both sides. The UAE and Russia’s Africa Corps support the RSF, while Egypt is aligned with the SAF and Iran is considering providing the SAF with weapons.
Open source reportThe U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned RSF commander Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla over abuses committed by forces under his command in West Darfur, including the kidnapping and killing of the regional governor.
Open source reportGen. al Burhan seemed to squash that idea with an impossible pre-condition: he wants Hemedti's RSF to fully withdraw from Sudan's cities before talks take place.
Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan conditioned talks with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces on their full withdrawal from Sudanese cities, undercutting reports of imminent negotiations in Jeddah.
Open source reportHuman Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur.
Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and allied forces of genocide against the Massalit in El Geneina and called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan.
Open source reportSudan's Rapid Support Forces are eyeing an assault on El Fasher, which is the last major city in Darfur still controlled by the government.
The Rapid Support Forces are preparing for a possible assault on El Fasher, described as the last major Darfur city controlled by the government. A battle could be especially bloody given Darfur's history of mass violence.
Open source reportYesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then.
President Kagame commemorated the 30th anniversary of the genocide’s beginning; Rwanda’s subsequent progress ahead of his July reelection campaign.
Open source report