Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The RSF is unlikely to surrender its gains and that Washington will favor a humanitarian truce rather than Idris’s proposal. The claimed U.S. position is not independently corroborated.
Assessment development · updated through
The RSF is unlikely to surrender its gains and that Washington will favor a humanitarian truce rather than Idris’s proposal. The claimed U.S. position is not independently corroborated.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Kamil Idris dossier
3 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Sudan
Military leader Abdel Fatah al-Burhan appointed former UN official Kamil Idris, making him Sudan’s first prime minister since the 2021 coup. The African Union welcomed the appointment as movement toward civilian government.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 December SYRIA •Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, sparked controversy during his visit to Syria yesterday when he commented that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has no intention of complying with its Spring 2025 commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of the year. •Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist group and wants Pres. Ahmed al Sharaa's government in Damascus to do more to contain it and other Kurdish elements in Syria. •Al Sharaa's government seems reluctant to risk antagonizing either the SDF or Turkey, and thus finds itself in an awkward position between the two. •Syrian government forces briefly launched a half-hearted effort to take over some checkpoints in SDF-controlled parts of Aleppo, but quickly retreated after skirmishes that left two civilians dead. •Al Sharaa and the SDF would probably be content to maintain the status quo, and Damascus reportedly recently sent the SDF a proposal that would essentially formalize the separate arrangement they currently enjoy. •But that's unlikely to satisfy Turkey, which will probably continue to pressure al Sharaa to take a harder line against the SDF. CHINA •A new Pentagon report found that China likely loaded over 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos near Mongolia recently, and concluded that the move suggests Beijing isn't taking Pres. Trump's efforts to engage in denuclearization talks seriously. •Beijing continues to deny that it's aggressively modernizing its military and arms arsenal. Chinese officials have repeatedly accused reports suggesting otherwise - like the Pentagon's latest - of trying to "smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community." •Separately, China slapped provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy products to - in Beijing's view - level the playing field between the domestic dairy industry and subsidized European imports. The European Commission called the new duties unjustified. SUDAN •Sudan's Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, pitched a peace plan that he called "homemade - not imposed on us" to the UN Security Council (UNSC). •Idris's plan is unlikely to gain traction: it calls for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to agree to give up their arms and retreat to supervised camps. •The RSF - which recently captured El Fasher and has the upper hand in Darfur - certainly won't entertain the idea of surrendering its gains so easily. •Idris's proposal isn't going to win U.S. backing, either. Pres. Trump has instead pushed for a humanitarian truce that the U.S. and its allies on the UNSC will support over Idris's stillborn idea. LIBYA •Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has reportedly agreed to buy over $4 billion in arms and military equipment from Pakistan. •Details on the finalized agreement are hazy, but an earlier draft included 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft on the LNA's shopping list. •If the deal goes through - which is a big if, since it appears to contravene the UN's arms embargo on Libya - it would be one of Pakistan's largest arms sales ever.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday, but the two-hour call yielded no tangible progress towards peace. •Afterward, Trump encouraged Putin and Zelensky to negotiate directly, which the NYT called "a functional endorsement of Putin's position." Putin seemed happy, and reiterated his refrain that a ceasefire deal must "remove the root causes of this crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's sovereignty and westward shift. •Meanwhile, the NYT reported that Russia has been reinforcing bases on its tense border with Finland GAZA •Israel relaxed its monthslong blockade of Gaza to allow several food trucks in. Prime Minister Netanyahu said he decided to send "a basic quantity of food" after pressure from Israel's "closest friends in the world" - specifically, U.S. senators who expressed concern about an imminent "starvation crisis" in Gaza. •Shortly thereafter, Netanyahu announced a significant expansion of ground operations in Gaza, writing on social media: "We are going to take over all the areas of the Strip." •Canada, France, and the UK issued a joint statement criticizing Israel's expanded operations in Gaza and threatening to impose targeted sanctions on Israel over both the Gaza escalation and blockade and the growth of settlements in the West Bank. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, said - without offering any evidence - that authorities arrested 37 alleged mercenaries planning to disrupt this weekend's legislative elections by setting off explosives and collaborating with the opposition - two very different allegations. •Cabello said 21 of those arrested were Venezuelan and 17 were foreigners, but alleged that all of them entered Venezuela from Colombia. That helped justify a decision to suspend flights from Colombia to Venezuela for only a week. Flights will resume after the election. SUDAN •Sudan's military leader, Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, appointed former UN official Kamil Idris as the junta's prime minister. •This is the first time Sudan has had a prime minister since al-Burhan's 2021 coup. The African Union cheered the news as a step towards a return to civilian government - though with the Rapid Support Forces strafing the junta's interim capital in Port Sudan, the idea of civilian government still seems far off.
Open source report