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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
ARECOMS created a state cobalt reserve and ordered miners to contribute 10% of export volume. Cobalt not exported before quarterly deadlines will be forfeited to the reserve.
Unverified development · updated through
ARECOMS created a state cobalt reserve and ordered miners to contribute 10% of export volume. Cobalt not exported before quarterly deadlines will be forfeited to the reserve.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Glencore dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Glencore exported a small test shipment of cobalt under the DRC’s new quota framework while retaining a large stockpile. Limited exports by Glencore and other miners indicate that the rules remain opaque or difficult to follow.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 16 April IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are reportedly discussing an extension to the two-week temporary ceasefire that currently expires next Wednesday (April 22) to allow more time to negotiate a more permanent truce. •Pres. Trump downplayed reports of a possible extension and said it would be "preferable" to finalize a permanent truce instead of prolonging a temporary one. Iranian state media reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also opposes an extension. However, both leaders likely prefer an extension over a return to war. LEBANON •Pres. Trump said in a Truth Social post that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today. •He didn't explicitly say which leaders would speak, but it probably won't be the heads of state: it's hard to imagine Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to talk to Lebanese President Aoun after derisively rejecting Aoun's outreach for months. •Separately, the Israeli military said that its April 8 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were even more devastating to the militant group's command structure and operational capabilities than its September 2024 pager attack, "but both targeted hundreds of terrorists and within 60 seconds." •The April 8 operation was based on extensive intelligence that tracked 250 Hezbollah operatives - including a large share of the group's mid-level commanders - and simultaneously targeted them in many different locations throughout Lebanon. •Israeli officials assess that Hezbollah's command is still reeling from the April 8 blow, though its rocket fire hasn't abated yet. DRC •DRC's market regulator, ARECOMS, formally established a state strategic cobalt reserve in a bid to expand its control over cobalt supply chains and capture a greater share of the value of its mineral wealth. •The new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve. •It also forces them to max out their quarterly export quotas because they will now forfeit any cobalt they mined but failed to export before each quarterly deadline, with the excess also going into the state reserve. •DRC's cobalt miners will resent the state's new value capture, but there's not much they can do about it: 70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands. VENEZUELA •Spain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day. •Repsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has: in the new agreement, Repsol committed to tripling the field's production within three years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Dec VENEZUELA •Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado was expected to accept her award in person in Norway yesterday, but she never showed up. •A Nobel official told media that Machado was "unfortunately not in Norway." That would seem to suggest she's still in Venezuela, since the hardest part of her trip would've been escaping the authoritarian regime that has banned her from traveling abroad for the past 10 years. •Separately, two U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday, marking the closest that U.S. military aircraft have come to Venezuelan airspace since Operation Southern Sentinel began in September. •A U.S. military official said the flights were not intended to be provocative, but Nicolas Maduro's government will surely feel threatened by the proximity of U.S. jets to Venezuela's richest oil regions. DRC •Rwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira, which is the last major city in eastern DRC that's still under Kinshasa's control. •Around 200,000 civilians have already fled the latest round of fighting - most of which has taken place after DRC and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire at the White House. •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi explicitly blamed his Rwandan counterpart, Pres. Kagame, for the ongoing conflict: "This is a proxy war aimed at challenging our sovereignty over a highly strategic area, rich in critical minerals and economic potential that is crucial to the future of our nation." •Rwanda counter-accused DRC and Burundi of violating the truce, too, but DRC and Burundi are not sending troops SAM systems, laser guided anti tank weapons, EW jamming systems and armed drones into Rwanda like Rwanda is into DRC. •Separately, Glencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework. •Glencore has only exported a small test batch of cobalt and is still sitting on a massive stockpile of cobalt that it mined as a byproduct of copper extraction during the export ban and as it deciphered the new, post-ban rules. •Its cautious small test shipment - and the fact that other miners continue to stockpile instead of even testing exporting - suggests the new rules remain opaque and hard to comply with. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thai and Cambodian troops continued to clash along their shared border, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing to shelters they hadn't bothered to deconstruct after the last bout of skirmishes subsided in July (which perhaps offers some insight into the low confidence the local population placed in that truce's staying power). •Both sides continue to blame the other and insist they're only acting in self defense against the other's aggressions. •So far, the casualty count has remained fairly low compared to the escalating rhetoric: Cambodia says intruding Thai soldiers have killed just six civilians this week. •Pres. Trump - who was present when Thailand and Cambodia formalized their truce in October - said he'd "have to make a phone call" today to try to revive the ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China who will use them to develop artificial intelligence models. •The H200 is a generation behind Nvidia's latest chips, which is probably part of why Trump felt comfortable sharing it with China. (China hawks have successfully lobbied to bar Chinese companies from using the latest U.S. chip tech.) •Another factor behind Trump's decision could be the 25% royalty the U.S. government will reportedly collect on H200 sales to Chinese customers. 1/2
Open source report