7 direct mentions across 7 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
3Linked events
7Source reports
2025-03-24First seen
2025-12-10Last seen
Evidence mix3 developments
Erik’s assessment1Developing2
Direct mentions
7
Countries
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda
Categories
Active conflict
Latest linked intelligence
Technical teams were drafting an agreement intended to end fighting in eastern DRC, with Presidents Paul Kagame and Félix Tshisekedi expected to sign it on June 27.
Developing development · updated through
Latest directly linked development
Eastern Democratic Republic of the CongoDeveloping
Rwandan and Congolese teams draft June 27 peace agreement
Technical teams were drafting an agreement intended to end fighting in eastern DRC, with Presidents Paul Kagame and Félix Tshisekedi expected to sign it on June 27.
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Paul Kagame dossier
Paul Kagame linked geography
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Source archive
0:00Approximate scope
Walikale
AFC announces support for truce and withdrawal from Walikale
The Rwanda-backed AFC coalition, which includes M23, supported a ceasefire and announced it would withdraw from Walikale after capturing the mining town following talks between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame. Tshisekedi asked Congolese troops to observe the ceasefire without issuing an order.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Mention timeline
Conflict flare-ups, U.S. military activity and strategic trade shifts
Off Leash update 10 Dec
VENEZUELA
•Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado was expected to accept her award in person in Norway yesterday, but she never showed up.
•A Nobel official told media that Machado was "unfortunately not in Norway." That would seem to suggest she's still in Venezuela, since the hardest part of her trip would've been escaping the authoritarian regime that has banned her from traveling abroad for the past 10 years.
•Separately, two U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday, marking the closest that U.S. military aircraft have come to Venezuelan airspace since Operation Southern Sentinel began in September.
•A U.S. military official said the flights were not intended to be provocative, but Nicolas Maduro's government will surely feel threatened by the proximity of U.S. jets to Venezuela's richest oil regions.
DRC
•Rwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira, which is the last major city in eastern DRC that's still under Kinshasa's control.
•Around 200,000 civilians have already fled the latest round of fighting - most of which has taken place after DRC and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire at the White House.
•DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi explicitly blamed his Rwandan counterpart, Pres. Kagame, for the ongoing conflict: "This is a proxy war aimed at challenging our sovereignty over a highly strategic area, rich in critical minerals and economic potential that is crucial to the future of our nation."
•Rwanda counter-accused DRC and Burundi of violating the truce, too, but DRC and Burundi are not sending troops SAM systems, laser guided anti tank weapons, EW jamming systems and armed drones into Rwanda like Rwanda is into DRC.
•Separately, Glencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework.
•Glencore has only exported a small test batch of cobalt and is still sitting on a massive stockpile of cobalt that it mined as a byproduct of copper extraction during the export ban and as it deciphered the new, post-ban rules.
•Its cautious small test shipment - and the fact that other miners continue to stockpile instead of even testing exporting - suggests the new rules remain opaque and hard to comply with.
THAILAND AND CAMBODIA
•Thai and Cambodian troops continued to clash along their shared border, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing to shelters they hadn't bothered to deconstruct after the last bout of skirmishes subsided in July (which perhaps offers some insight into the low confidence the local population placed in that truce's staying power).
•Both sides continue to blame the other and insist they're only acting in self defense against the other's aggressions.
•So far, the casualty count has remained fairly low compared to the escalating rhetoric: Cambodia says intruding Thai soldiers have killed just six civilians this week.
•Pres. Trump - who was present when Thailand and Cambodia formalized their truce in October - said he'd "have to make a phone call" today to try to revive the ceasefire.
CHINA
•Pres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China who will use them to develop artificial intelligence models.
•The H200 is a generation behind Nvidia's latest chips, which is probably part of why Trump felt comfortable sharing it with China. (China hawks have successfully lobbied to bar Chinese companies from using the latest U.S. chip tech.)
•Another factor behind Trump's decision could be the 25% royalty the U.S. government will reportedly collect on H200 sales to Chinese customers.
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Rwandan president named in Tshisekedi’s accusation0 direct event links
Conflict claims point to resilient Hamas, renewed M23 advances and a possible STC takeover in southern Yemen
Off Leash update 9 DEC
GAZA
•Former senior Shin Bet official Shalom Ben Hanan told the NYT that Hamas is "still standing" despite its two-year war with Israel.
•Ben Hanan cited official estimates that Hamas still has around 20,000 active fighters after quickly replacing its casualties.
•Hamas also appears to be reasserting its role in policing Gaza - though its senior officials insist they'll be willing and ready to cede power to an appointed transitional government once one is formed.
DRC
•Just days after signing a document in the White House Oval Office reaffirming a U.S.-brokered peace deal with the DRC, Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's proxy M23 invaded further into DRC territory in direct defiance of President Trump's peace efforts.
•Local reports suggest the M23 is bringing in reinforcements from Rwanda, and leveraged the added troop strength to capture the village of Luvungi near the Burundian border.
•Analysts also spotted signs that the rebels used freshly-supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones, and jammers.
•Burundi - which is receiving thousands of fleeing civilians – echoed these reports and blamed Rwanda for the chaos. Its Foreign Minister accused Kigali of "playing a double game. It claims to be negotiating and signing agreements, but in the meantime, it is intensifying attacks on the civilian population with kamikaze drones that kill instinctively.”
YEMEN
•The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist coalition announced that it had captured not only Hadramout, but all eight of Yemen's southern governates - including the port of Aden.
•The STC's claim is credible but unconfirmed, and Saudi Arabia may still mount some resistance in defense of the government it was backing in Aden.
•STC control of the south would mark a major change in the course of Yemen's long-running civil war. It would also increase the likelihood of Yemen ultimately re-fracturing into the two countries that comprised it before unification.
President of Rwanda, whose government the post accuses of supporting M230 direct event links
Ceasefire diplomacy, cartel cooperation, and M23 allegations
Off Leash update 20 Aug
GAZA
•Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval.
•The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations.
•That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal.
•He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal.
UKRAINE
•The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him).
•Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning.
•Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation.
MEXICO
•On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S.
•Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels.
DRC
•Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025.
•The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area.
•In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades.
•Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Rwandan president described as denying Rwandan troop involvement0 direct event links
Ukraine diplomacy advances as conflicts, resource strain and U.S. tariffs drive wider risks
Off Leash update 7 August
UKRAINE
•U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Pres. Putin in Moscow this week, and Pres. Trump said Witkoff made "great progress" nudging Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire deal he could agree to.
•Next, Trump and Putin plan to meet in the coming days to continue where Witkoff left off.
•Trilateral talks between Presidents Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could follow - though it's unclear whether either Putin or Zelensky has agreed to participate yet.
DRC
•UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk dashed hopes for the ceasefire DRC signed with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels on June 19 with a new report suggesting the M23 defied the truce and instead escalated its violence in North Kivu in July. The UN counted at least 319 civilian deaths from M23 massacres between July 9 and 21.
•Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame are still due to meet in the coming months to agree on the details of their fraying truce.
IRAN
•Iran closed government offices in half its provinces yesterday to save water and electricity amidst an ongoing dual shortage exacerbated by five years of drought and soaring temperatures.
•Tehran is particularly affected, with water pressure halved or worse in 80% of its households. Authorities are encouraging residents to wait out the latest heatwave elsewhere to prolong what little water remains in the reservoirs feeding the capital, but they fear taps could run dry within weeks.
SUDAN
•State media reported that Sudan's air force blew up an Emirati plane carrying 40 alleged Colombian mercenaries as it landed at Darfur's Nyala airport, which is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting the army.
•Sudan (credibly) accuses the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons and mercenaries, and says Nyala airport is the main entry point for both.
•Colombia's Pres. Petro seemed to acknowledge reports of Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF, but has made his distaste for it clear. After yesterday's report that Colombian fighters were aboard the Nyala-bound plane, Petro called for a ban on mercenary activity.
GHANA
•A helicopter crash killed Ghana's Ministers of Defense and Environment - as well as eight other officials - en route to a conference on illegal mining. There are no reports of foul play yet.
TRADE
•New U.S. tariffs on imports from around 90 countries came into effect at midnight this morning.
•In addition, Pres. Trump threatened to impose a new, 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to the U.S. - but with a key loophole exempting companies that pledge new investment in the U.S.
Rwandan president expected to discuss the truce with the DRC president0 direct event links
Iran decision pressure, India-Canada reset, and proposed DRC truce
Off Leash update 19 June
IRAN
•Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei bluntly rejected Pres. Trump's call for "unconditional surrender," and instead threatened "irreparable" harm to the U.S. if it joins the fray. Despite Khamenei's fiery rhetoric, Iran's cooler-headed diplomats still insist that Tehran remains open to negotiations with the U.S.
•Trump remained vague about whether the U.S. would, indeed, accede to Israel's request to join its side of the conflict, leaving the door open to negotiations: "I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change." [The WSJ reported that Trump privately approved plans to attack Iran but is waiting to see if Iran offers to return to the nuclear negotiating table before he gives his final approval to attack.]
•According to media reports, Israel particularly wants the U.S.'s help - as well as its 30,000-lb. bunker-buster bombs and B-2 bombers to drop them from - to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow. Israel has neither strong enough bombs nor bombers to carry them; U.S. has both within range of Iran.
•Doves opposed to U.S. involvement are invoking memories of ill-fated U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to advocate against joining.
INDIA
•India's Pres. Modi met new Canadian Prime Minister Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit Carney hosted this week.
•Modi and Carney agreed to restart trade talks and restore diplomatic representation and visa processing, which is a step towards repairing the damage their bilateral relationship suffered when Canada accused India's government of backing the assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver two years ago.
•The very next day, Canadian intelligence published a report calling India a perpetrator of foreign influence for its involvement in Najjar's assassination - and dozens of other alleged plots the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have disrupted against Sikhs in Canada. [The report seems like a compromise to Canadian Sikhs who were angry that Carney would rekindle relations with a government that violated its sovereignty to carry out assassinations; India blew off the criticism and it didn't seem to hurt fragile-but-improving bilateral relations.]
DRC
•Rwandan and Congolese technical teams are busy drafting a peace agreement to end fighting in eastern DRC, and Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi are slated to sign the truce next Friday (June 27).
•Prior ceasefires have fallen through quickly - some before they were even signed - but the outlook this version seems better, given new U.S. pressure to end fighting and pacify the mineral-rich region for investment.
Rwandan president expected by the post to sign the proposed agreement1 direct event link
June 12 update: U.S.-China trade framework, African conflicts and Gaza diplomacy
Off Leash update 12 June
CHINA
•Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month.
•The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities).
•The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval.
ECONOMY
•A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve.
DRC
•A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire.
•Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias.
SUDAN
•Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya.
•The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression."
•Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war.
PAKISTAN
•Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1.
•That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget.
GAZA
•In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages.
•Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll.
•Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation.
•Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood.
•Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza.
1/2
Ceasefire diplomacy advances amid continued fighting in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and eastern DRC
Off Leash update 24 March 2025
COMMODITY PRICES
•Aluminum: $2,623/ton
•Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton
•Cobalt: $33,610/ton
•Copper: $9,856/ton
•Gold: $3,029/toz
•Lead: $2,017/ton
•Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu
•WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel
•Zinc: $2,928/ton
UKRAINE
•Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure.
•U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire.
•China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission.
GAZA
•U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting.
•Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike.
•Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants.
•Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle.
YEMEN
•Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target).
SUDAN
•After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel.
•The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan.
DRC
•Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha.
•Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too.
•Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting."
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President of Rwanda involved in ceasefire discussions1 direct event link