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3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Mining Minister Ousmane Abarchi said Niger had met Russian companies interested in exploiting uranium and other resources. The junta is moving toward Russian participation while barring French companies because France does not recognize the post-coup government.
Assessment development · updated through
Mining Minister Ousmane Abarchi said Niger had met Russian companies interested in exploiting uranium and other resources. The junta is moving toward Russian participation while barring French companies because France does not recognize the post-coup government.
Open source reportGeography
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Niger junta dossier
3 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Niger
The EU will end its Military Partnership Mission in Niger in June 2024 rather than continue through December 2025, amid strained relations with Niger’s junta and its growing alignment with Russia.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 July Gaza •The Pentagon said it would give up on the floating pier it built off the coast of Gaza to land aid deliveries. •The pier - which cost $230 million to build - received few aid deliveries in its short lifespan - it only operated for about 20 days of the two months since it was first installed - and suffered damage from rough seas on multiple occasions. (Editor's note: this debacle is especially foul for me as before USG blundered in I was asked by a significant NGO to build a logistics and security plan for supply Gaza. The maritime portion for our plan was only $10m and that included buying two landing craft with cranes and a 120meter spud barge that we would have pinned to the beach with large pilings. The LCs would cycle from 13 miles out (outside Gaza/Israeli waters) to offload by crane into barge pinned to beach. Not elegant but sufficient. The consistent fail of "Team America" is embarrassing and must be corrected.) •Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant estimated that Israel has killed 60% of Hamas terrorists in its nine-month war in Gaza. •Gallant also called for an official inquiry into Israel's failures leading up - and responding - to the Oct. 7 attacks, and specifically suggested the inquiry should investigate PM Netanyahu and Gallant himself. Netanyahu has resisted the idea of conducting such an inquiry before the war is over. Russia •U.S. intelligence uncovered a secret Russian plot to assassinate the (civilian) CEO of German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall because of his company's role producing artillery shells and tanks for Ukraine. •News of the plot outraged German and EU leaders, but Russia dismissed the accusations, saying they lacked "serious documentation" (as *secret* plots often do). •Separately, a Russian-born Australian army private and her husband - also a Russian-born Australian - became the first people arrested under Australia's modernized 2018 espionage laws. Australian prosecutors allege the couple "worked together to access Australian Defence Force material that related to Australia’s national security interests." Sudan •Reports earlier this week suggested Sudan's two warring strongmen - Gen. al Burhan and Hemedti - were close to relaunching peace talks in Jeddah, but Gen. al Burhan seemed to squash that idea with an impossible pre-condition: he wants Hemedti's RSF to fully withdraw from Sudan's cities before talks take place. Sahel •Niger's junta acknowledged that several prisoners escaped from a jail in the restive Tillaberi region known to hold Al Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked jihadists. •It was the first successful jailbreak from this particular facility - although guards repelled two prior attempts in 2016 and 2019. Authorities don't know exactly how many prisoners escaped, but they placed the surrounding area under a strict curfew in an attempt to track down the escapees. Other News •Kenya's Pres. Ruto fired 14 of his 15 cabinet ministers in a belated response to nationwide protests against his government and new taxes it sought to impose (but walked back after they proved unpopular). That may be too little, too late for the protesters, who had demanded Ruto's resignation too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Open source report