U.S.-China Engagement, Nuclear Signaling and Security Crises Across Sudan, Afghanistan and Brazil

Off Leash update 30 Oct

CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi met in person for the first time in six years yesterday. •It sounds like their nearly two-hour meeting went well: Trump said he would rate it a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10, and Xi said it had given him a "warm" feeling - which is probably about a 12 out of 10 on Xi's understated emotive scale. •Afterwards, Trump told reporters he would lower tariffs on most Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, and said that Xi had agreed in return to buy more U.S. soybeans, to drop restrictions on rare earths exports for a year, and to help crack down on fentanyl.

RUSSIA •Just before he met Xi, Trump announced that the U.S. will soon resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other countries, ending a 33-year moratorium on tests. [Insightful analysts pointed out that the "equal basis" qualifier suggests Trump is talking about testing delivery vehicles and other supporting components and not actual nuclear weapons, which no country except North Korea has tested since 1996.] •Many quickly assumed that Trump's announcement was intended to scare Xi ahead of their meeting, but Trump later clarified that his threat wasn't directed at China at all: "it had to do with others." •Trump was likely instead referring to Russia and reacting to a pair of announcements Pres. Putin made this week celebrating two separate tests of nuclear delivery systems. On Sunday, Putin said the nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile had passed its tests and would soon be deployed. Then yesterday, Putin lauded the successful test of a new, nuclear-capable underwater drone - dubbed Poseidon after the Greek god of the sea and storms - designed to trigger a tsunami. •Trump previously called Putin's Burevestnik announcement "inappropriate" and urged Putin to spend his energy on peace talks instead of weapons tests.

SUDAN •The World Health Organization raised concerns over credible reports that Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 460 people in the main hospital in El Fasher upon capturing the state capital from the army over the weekend. •That was only one of several documented claims that the RSF is committing ethnically-targeted atrocities in El Fasher. •RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) unconvincingly promised to investigate the concerning accusations against his troops, but the U.S., UN, and others are calling for urgent, genuine action to prevent what many fear could become another full-blown genocide in Darfur.

AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to resume peace talks in Istanbul after their previous round of dialogue broke down without a resolution. •It's hard to imagine a second round of talks breaking through the intractable impasse that doomed the first one: Kabul will likely continue to deny having any sway over the Pakistani Taliban militants that Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of protecting. But both at least seem to agree on avoiding a costly war over their differences.

BRAZIL •Rio de Janeiro's favela raid on the Red Command crime syndicate had already ranked as the city's deadliest of its kind when police estimated they'd killed 60 gangsters. Now - upon counting bodies in a nearby wooded area - the death toll has doubled to 132, including four police. •Police arrested another 113 people and seized 118 weapons and a metric ton of drugs, validating the allegations underpinning their raid. But that hasn't stopped rights groups from criticizing their heavy-handed tactics - or leftists from complaining that the raid was part of a political gambit by Rio's conservative governor, Cláudio Castro, to look tough on crime ahead of next year's elections. •Castro may yet order more raids, as this one failed to capture its main target, senior Red Command leader Edgar Alves Andrade (aka Doca). Doca remains on the lam despite 20 outstanding warrants for his arrest and a R$100,000 ($18,660) bounty on him.

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