Off Leash Intel · loading
3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Islamabad’s accusations against the Afghan Taliban partly serve to divert attention from Pakistan’s inability to prevent militant attacks within its own territory.
Assessment development · updated through
Islamabad’s accusations against the Afghan Taliban partly serve to divert attention from Pakistan’s inability to prevent militant attacks within its own territory.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Pakistani Taliban dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Karachi
An attack on the Pakistan Rangers’ regional headquarters in Karachi killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, described as a Pakistani Taliban breakaway faction. The attack was cited as one reason for Pakistan’s subsequent strikes in Afghanistan.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Oct CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi met in person for the first time in six years yesterday. •It sounds like their nearly two-hour meeting went well: Trump said he would rate it a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10, and Xi said it had given him a "warm" feeling - which is probably about a 12 out of 10 on Xi's understated emotive scale. •Afterwards, Trump told reporters he would lower tariffs on most Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, and said that Xi had agreed in return to buy more U.S. soybeans, to drop restrictions on rare earths exports for a year, and to help crack down on fentanyl. RUSSIA •Just before he met Xi, Trump announced that the U.S. will soon resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other countries, ending a 33-year moratorium on tests. [Insightful analysts pointed out that the "equal basis" qualifier suggests Trump is talking about testing delivery vehicles and other supporting components and not actual nuclear weapons, which no country except North Korea has tested since 1996.] •Many quickly assumed that Trump's announcement was intended to scare Xi ahead of their meeting, but Trump later clarified that his threat wasn't directed at China at all: "it had to do with others." •Trump was likely instead referring to Russia and reacting to a pair of announcements Pres. Putin made this week celebrating two separate tests of nuclear delivery systems. On Sunday, Putin said the nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile had passed its tests and would soon be deployed. Then yesterday, Putin lauded the successful test of a new, nuclear-capable underwater drone - dubbed Poseidon after the Greek god of the sea and storms - designed to trigger a tsunami. •Trump previously called Putin's Burevestnik announcement "inappropriate" and urged Putin to spend his energy on peace talks instead of weapons tests. SUDAN •The World Health Organization raised concerns over credible reports that Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 460 people in the main hospital in El Fasher upon capturing the state capital from the army over the weekend. •That was only one of several documented claims that the RSF is committing ethnically-targeted atrocities in El Fasher. •RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) unconvincingly promised to investigate the concerning accusations against his troops, but the U.S., UN, and others are calling for urgent, genuine action to prevent what many fear could become another full-blown genocide in Darfur. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to resume peace talks in Istanbul after their previous round of dialogue broke down without a resolution. •It's hard to imagine a second round of talks breaking through the intractable impasse that doomed the first one: Kabul will likely continue to deny having any sway over the Pakistani Taliban militants that Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of protecting. But both at least seem to agree on avoiding a costly war over their differences. BRAZIL •Rio de Janeiro's favela raid on the Red Command crime syndicate had already ranked as the city's deadliest of its kind when police estimated they'd killed 60 gangsters. Now - upon counting bodies in a nearby wooded area - the death toll has doubled to 132, including four police. •Police arrested another 113 people and seized 118 weapons and a metric ton of drugs, validating the allegations underpinning their raid. But that hasn't stopped rights groups from criticizing their heavy-handed tactics - or leftists from complaining that the raid was part of a political gambit by Rio's conservative governor, Cláudio Castro, to look tough on crime ahead of next year's elections. •Castro may yet order more raids, as this one failed to capture its main target, senior Red Command leader Edgar Alves Andrade (aka Doca). Doca remains on the lam despite 20 outstanding warrants for his arrest and a R$100,000 ($18,660) bounty on him. 1/2
Open source report