Off Leash Intel · loading
17 direct mentions across 17 briefings, with 21 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Afghanistan retaliated for Pakistani airstrikes by sending drones into Balochistan. Pakistan said it downed four drones, suffered no serious casualties or damage, and threatened a response to further strikes; Russia called for diplomacy.
Unverified development · updated through
Afghanistan retaliated for Pakistani airstrikes by sending drones into Balochistan. Pakistan said it downed four drones, suffered no serious casualties or damage, and threatened a response to further strikes; Russia called for diplomacy.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Pakistan dossier
11 mapped developments across 7 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Kashmir
India said its forces killed three people involved in the April Kashmir attack that preceded a brief confrontation with Pakistan. Domestic criticism over the time taken to identify and pursue the attackers.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 1 July 2026 IRAN •Iran's speaker of parliament asserted that his government will not engage the U.S. in negotiations towards a final peace deal until all terms of the interim memorandum of understanding are met, and warned that Iran is "prepared for war" if its conditions are not met. •That's a problem, since one of the terms of the MoU - at least in Iran's reading of it - requires Israel to end its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon - something that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists won't happen until Hezbollah "is eliminated." CHINA •The European Union ended its duty-free exemption for low-value imports and introduced a €3 ($3.4) levy on imported packages valued under €150. •The new fee is aimed at dirt-cheap Chinese importers like Temu and Shein, whose offers of absurdly low prices and free shipping have stolen market share from European rivals. The U.S. ended a similar exemption on duties for imports worth less than $800 last year. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan retaliated against Pakistan's airstrikes over the weekend with "air strikes" of its own on Pakistan's Balochistan province. •Pakistan said it shot down four primitive Afghan drones and reported no serious damage or casualties, but warned its neighbor that any new strikes "would receive a befitting response." •Russia urged the warring neighbors to "end the armed conflict and resolve disputed issues through political and diplomatic means" - which is perhaps something Russia has heard itself. SOUTH AFRICA •Thousands of South Africans marched in anti-migrant protests yesterday, but the demonstrations didn't get as unruly as some had feared. •That's likely partly because security forces were prepared for unrest and quelled flare-ups quickly. It also probably helped that an estimated 25,000 undocumented migrants heeded the agitators' calls to leave before yesterday's deadline. •Still, the anti-immigrant groups behind the protests are unlikely to be satisfied by the pace of repatriations and will likely continue to (largely unfairly) blame immigrants for South Africa's woes as long as unemployment remains high.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportU.S.-Iran negotiations, a pause in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, leadership change in Britain and a narrow Colombian election result.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 June 2026 IRAN AND ISRAEL •The U.S. and Iran exchanged another round of strikes, but - as in other recent flare-ups - both sides exercised a modicum of restraint and justified their attacks as exact retaliation for specific incidents in an effort to uphold the broader ceasefire. •First, a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Both pilots were rescued, but Pres. Trump blamed Iran for downing the gunship and ordered strikes against air defense and radar sites in southern Iran in retaliation. •Then Iran re-retaliated with drone attacks on U.S. military sites in the region, including U.S. Navy assets in Bahrain and a U.S. base in Jordan. •Iran accused the U.S. of "undermining" the fragile ceasefire, but neither side seems eager to abandon the truce or diplomatic negotiations, which Trump said Monday were "two or three days" away from reaching an agreement. •So the fragile detente holds, although - as The Economist noted - "the more the ceasefire is tested, the more likely it is to collapse entirely." UKRAINE •The European Union (EU) proposed a number of new measures to penalize Russia for its war in Ukraine. One idea would bar Russian soldiers and veterans who served in Ukraine from ever entering the EU; another would maintain the low $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil through 2027. This is the EU's 21st package of sanctions on Russia since the war began. PAKISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan that Islamabad claimed killed at least 26 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants in three Afghan provinces. Afghanistan said the strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including 11 children. •Despite flare-ups like this, the neighboring countries are still technically observing a tenuous ceasefire that China helped mediate in March. NORTH KOREA •China's Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings with Kim Jong Un in North Korea. State media stuck to their orders and celebrated vague pleasantries without divulging any real insight into what Xi and Kim discussed. •Analysts instead honed in on what was omitted from state media reports: Xi said nothing about North Korea's nuclear program - even though Pres. Trump claimed after his meeting with Xi last month that the two had agreed to work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. •One analyst suggested that Xi's avoidance of the nuclear topic with Kim suggests that Beijing has made "a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea" for the sake of maintaining strong bilateral relations with Pyongyang. EUROPE •Germany pulled out of the Future Combat Air System, a planned project to build a European fighter jet with France and Spain. •The project had been on life support after two French aviation majors - Dassault and Airbus - publicly disagreed over how to manage it, and Berlin's departure will probably be the long-anticipated death knell for the program, since France and Spain probably don't have the funding (or political will) to continue without Germany's support.
Open source reportA coordinated insurgent offensive in Mali, indirect U.S.-Iran contacts, an Iranian proposal involving the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli opposition realignment and higher global military spending.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 April IRAN •American and Iranian delegations will meet in Islamabad starting tomorrow to try to negotiate a more permanent peace than the current, 14-day ceasefire that both sides have already accused the other of violating. •Ahead of that summit, Iran circulated its draft 10-point counterproposal, which the White House claimed was different from the plan it had called "a workable basis on which to negotiate." •The public draft Iran circulated yesterday contained several points that the U.S. delegation won't be able to agree to and preemptively criticized as "fundamentally unserious." For example, it explicitly allows Iran to enrich uranium and control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and demands a U.S. military withdrawal from the entire Gulf region and reparations for war damages. •The White House is working on its own proposal that's sure to be starkly different from Iran's. It's hard to imagine the two sides reaching any middle ground from such distant starting positions. •It doesn't seem like the two sides even agree about the terms of the current, 14-day ceasefire. One of its key tenets - at least as Pres. Trump pitched it - was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, but Iran still controls traffic through the Strait and is even strengthening its tolling system with a new plan to charge transiting ships $1 per barrel of oil aboard, payable in Bitcoin (so it can't be traced or confiscated). •Gulf countries also reported continued incursions by Iranian missiles and drones after the ceasefire was announced. LEBANON •Another reason the current, 14-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is wobbling is because of a disagreement over whether it extends to Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan say it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not. •Israel forced the issue by carrying out its deadliest strikes yet on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon yesterday, killing at least 254 in what Lebanon's Pres. Aoun called a "massacre." •U.S. Vice President JD Vance - who will lead the U.S. delegation in truce talks with Islamabad this weekend - said yesterday that Israel offered to restrain its (future) strikes on Lebanon for the sake of ongoing peace talks. •That may be too little, too late for Iran, whose deputy foreign minister called Israel's strikes on Lebanon a "grave violation" of the temporary ceasefire. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a "responsible increase" in the public sector minimum wage starting next month - as opposed to the highly irresponsible past wage hikes that triggered inflation crises. •The country's minimum wage has been stuck at an unliveable 130 bolivares - about $0.28 at official rates - per month since March 2022, forcing many workers to sustain themselves from bonuses or side hustles. •Rodriguez didn't give a figure for the new minimum wage, but she said oil and mining revenues would pay for it. SAHEL •Two leading jihadist groups in the Sahel - Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) - took their long-running rivalry to Niger for the first time, with a series of skirmishes in Tillaberi, western Niger. •JNIM and ISSP have been fighting each other in the Sahel since at least 2019, but their previous clashes have been restricted to Mali and Burkina Faso. •Analysts say the spillover into Niger is a sign that JNIM sees an opportunity to follow ISSP's lead in exploiting security gaps in Niger and northern Nigeria, while ISSP resents the competition and is willing to fight to retain exclusive control. SOCIAL MEDIA •Greece became the third country - after Australia and Spain - to announce plans to ban minors from social media. Several other countries - including Denmark, France, Indonesia, and Malaysia - are considering similar bans. •Proponents of the bans believe social media usage harms children and a ban will prevent harm, but critics say bans will only push online minors to darker and less-regulated parts of the internet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges. Iran's leaders have publicly dismissed the ultimatum, but Trump told Fox he thinks there's a "good chance" that private talks will reach a deal today to avoid escalation. •The first round of the golf Masters Tournament opens Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. FOUR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEKEND •Djibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75 that would've rendered him ineligible. Incidentally, that age limit was only imposed as part of a 2010 electoral "reform" that did away with term limits so he could run for a third term. This will be his sixth. •Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday. The Fidesz party's populist incumbent, Viktor Orban, is trailing in (independent) polls by 11 points to the center-right Tisza party's Peter Magyar, but government polls tell a different story, and analysts think Orban will pull out all the stops to extend his 16-year premiership. •Benin will vote for president on Sunday. The ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running. •Peru votes for president and parliament on Sunday. Two right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,470/ton •Antimony (global avg. from Antimony Global): $34,352/ton [Note: I'm switching to a new antimony benchmark that should be a better indicator of global average prices than the unconvincingly flat benchmark I was using for trioxide min. 99.65% fob China. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, antimony is usually traded through private over-the-counter contracts, which means prices are highly volatile and variable. This Antimony Global world average seems like the best big-picture benchmark out there.] •Bitcoin: $68,928 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,360/ton •Ethereum: $2,126 •Gold: $4,665/toz •Lead: $1,933/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.80/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $111.71/barrel •Zinc: $3,265/ton IRAN •Oil markets are volatile while waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal or - in the absence of a deal - if Pres. Trump will make good on his increasingly brash threats against Iran if it doesn't "open the fuckin' strait" by his deadline of 8 pm ET tomorrow. •Trump seemed emboldened to escalate his rhetoric by the success of a high-risk rescue mission to locate and extract a U.S. Air Force colonel whose F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down in southern Iran on Friday. •Iranian forces were desperately searching for the downed airman, too, and would've used him as negotiating leverage if they'd found him first. A CIA deception campaign helped ensure that didn't happen. •Separately, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither has responded yet, and it's unclear whether this is the deal that Trump gave a "good chance" of closing today. •Meanwhile, a likely Israeli strike killed Majid Khademi - the head of intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - earlier today. Khademi had only been in his post since last June, when his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike. TRADE •Bloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering. •That's the highest seven-day rolling total since the war began, and it included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker - both with no clear links to Iran. However, it's still just a trickle compared to the historical average of 138 transits per day. •Iran has reportedly set up a tolling system - which witty commentators dubbed an "ayatollah booth" - to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage. It has also restricted transits to a narrow northern passage, creating a natural limit on traffic too. •Meanwhile, European leaders are exploring options for safeguarding trade in the Strait. They're reportedly considering naval escorts (French Pres. Macron's preferred option), minesweeping, aerial interceptors, and - the bureaucrats' favorite - negotiations and economic measures. All have drawbacks, and none are sure to work. CHINA •Cheng Li-wun, who leads Taiwan's largest opposition party - the Kuomintang (KMT) - won her party's leadership in October after campaigning on closer ties with mainland China. That platform also won her an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit the mainland, which she's doing this week with a delegation that will stop in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing. •Xi's courtship of the KMT under Cheng is likely part of his push to reunify Taiwan. It would be easier if a pliant future KMT government simply agreed to reunification than if Beijing had to take the island by force. •To that end, Beijing also reached out to the current (more defiant) Taiwanese government in early March to offer energy guarantees if it agreed to reunify. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party leaders quickly rejected the proposal, which was probably more of an optics play (to show Taiwan that its leaders refuse dialogue even at the expense of energy security) than a real offer. HUNGARY •Serbian officials discovered two backpacks containing explosives near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary. That appears to corroborate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that "Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy." •However, Hungary's opposition leader, Peter Magyar - who's leading Orban in independent polls ahead of Sunday's election - was skeptical. Magyar accused Orban of staging a "false flag" operation to scare voters into rallying behind their strongman leader on Sunday.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 April IRAN •Pres. Trump plans to address the nation on Iran this evening, and has hinted to reporters that he'll claim his objectives have been achieved and announce a winding down of the war in the next two to three weeks. •Iran's leaders may be skeptical of agreeing to a truce - especially one pitched on April Fool's Day. •For one thing, Trump's stated goal in both brief wars on Iran in the past year - ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb - still hasn't been conclusively achieved. Iran's 400 kg of enriched uranium is still at large, and its regime hasn't committed to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. If anything, this war may have hardened them. •Nonetheless, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian seemed cautiously open to a truce, as long as it came with security guarantees. That part will need to be fleshed out in talks. •Israel seems ready to end the war, too. The Israel Defense Forces estimated yesterday that all of its "critical" targets - i.e., those directly linked to Iran's missile programs that present an immediate threat - and "essential" targets - essential military-industrial sites that present a slightly less imminent threat - will be destroyed by today. •Americans will be glad to see the war end and fuel prices retreat. Two-thirds of respondents to a Reuters / Ipsos poll said they supported ending the war quickly, even if Trump's shifting goals for it are unmet. CHINA •As Trump vacillates on how the war might end, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker with a clearer, five-point peace plan that it pitched yesterday with Pakistan. •The Chinese-Pakistani plan calls for an immediate end to hostilities and strikes on infrastructure, a resumption of "normal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and "peace talks as soon as possible." •Analysts pointed out that this plan has striking parallels with the 12-point plan China proposed for ending the war in Ukraine in 2023. •That push fizzled out after Xi Jinping declined to stake his political capital meddling in a foreign crisis. It's unclear whether he has any more appetite for intervention now. CUBA •The Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island. •This shipment will last Cuba 3-4 weeks, and it may be the first of several: the White House said it would evaluate whether to allow other fuel deliveries to Cuba on a "case-by-case basis." •That's a stark reversal from Trump's proclamation on Truth Social in January that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Trump said he relented out of humanitarian concern for fuel-starved Cubans, but analysts suggested he lost interest in picking a fight with Cuba while his attention is focused on Iran. IRAQ •American journalist Shelley Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday, and analysts are worried that Iran-linked militias targeted her over the U.S. war in Iran. Details are still hazy. DRC •U.S. firm Virtus Metals finalized its $30 million acquisition of cobalt producer Chemaf - which owns DRC's massive Mutoshi copper-cobalt project - on Friday, thanks in part to U.S. government lobbying driven by a desire to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals. •That will make Virtus the largest non-Chinese cobalt miner in DRC, but it faces major financial and operating challenges - including a $1 billion debt burden. Virtus committed to raising $720 million to invest in its new asset, including $250-300 million of capex to finish long-stalled upgrades. •DRC is still actively courting Chinese investment, too. Last week, it signed a new mineral cooperation pact with Beijing that secured China's commitment to share geological data and promote more local processing of raw materials in DRC. •A Congo-focused analyst observed: "The DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets."
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •China's National People's Congress - a rubber-stamp parliament - opens its annual meeting Thursday. Analysts expect it to set a slightly lower GDP growth than last year's target: perhaps 4.5% instead of 5.0%. •The Winter Paralympics start Friday in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. •Colombia votes for its parliament Sunday, which is also International Women's Day and the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. (but not in Europe, where clocks change Mar. 29). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,140/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $66,223 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,344/ton •Ethereum: $1,951 •Gold: $5,392/toz •Lead: $1,962/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.01/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.21/barrel - Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes over the weekend. •Zinc: $3,317/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning, targeting a daytime gathering of senior Iranian figures - including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - in some of their opening strikes. •Iranian state media confirmed early rumors that Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Many Iranians cheered his death and the end of his 37-year theocratic reign; others - largely religious ultraconservatives - mourned his loss. •The regime announced 40 days of mourning and said the constitutionally-defined process of appointing his successor would begin immediately and could anoint the next Ayatollah within days. •Candidates include his son, Mojtaba; his loyal aide, Ali Larijani; and several hardline clerics. Whoever is picked will immediately have a target on their back. That said, all the top candidates probably already do: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his military has "thousands more targets" in its sights. •The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed to avenge Khamenei's death, but much of the IRGC's leadership - including its top commander - died with him. •The decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. Most were easily intercepted, but some caused damage and a few caused casualties - including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. •The ongoing exchange of fire has caused widespread flight cancellations, and both sides seem bent on further escalation. In particular, Iran's navy is reportedly carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway, through which 31% of all seaborne crude oil passes. •In a social media post, Pres. Trump called on Iranians to finish the job: "When we are finished, take over your government." It's not clear whether the battered, unarmed, and disorganized opposition will heed his call to rise up, but leaving the hard part to them lets Trump avoid sending ground troops into what could become another Middle Eastern quagmire. LEBANON •Iran's strongest remaining proxy, Hezbollah, then joined Iran's side by lobbing missiles towards Israel from Lebanon. Israel promptly retaliated with a barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah areas in Lebanon. •Israel's quick, decisive action against Hezbollah was embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which promised Israel it would rein in the militia as a condition of their Nov. 2024 ceasefire, but has made little progress doing so out of fears of a confrontation that the weak Lebanese army might lose. UKRAINE •Ukrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades, and Moscow could still renege on its pinky promise on security guarantees. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said its military fired anti-aircraft missiles that successfully deterred Pakistani jets threatening Bagram Air Base. •Bagram holds significant symbolic importance for the Taliban: the captured U.S. base holds Afghanistan's largest runway and hosts annual military parades each year on the anniversary of the Taliban's return to power. •Its destruction would be a much bigger loss for the Taliban than the small ammunition depots Pakistan targeted in its first wave of cross-border strikes last week. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks. •Machado left Venezuela in December to attend the Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, where she collected her Nobel Peace Prize. •Before she left, Nicolas Maduro's government charged her with a litany of crimes and ominously warned that she wouldn't be allowed to return if she left. •Maduro's former vice president and successor, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, may only be slightly more lenient on her: Rodriguez recently said Machado will have to "answer to Venezuela" for advocating for U.S. military intervention in Caracas.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 December SYRIA •Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, sparked controversy during his visit to Syria yesterday when he commented that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has no intention of complying with its Spring 2025 commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of the year. •Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist group and wants Pres. Ahmed al Sharaa's government in Damascus to do more to contain it and other Kurdish elements in Syria. •Al Sharaa's government seems reluctant to risk antagonizing either the SDF or Turkey, and thus finds itself in an awkward position between the two. •Syrian government forces briefly launched a half-hearted effort to take over some checkpoints in SDF-controlled parts of Aleppo, but quickly retreated after skirmishes that left two civilians dead. •Al Sharaa and the SDF would probably be content to maintain the status quo, and Damascus reportedly recently sent the SDF a proposal that would essentially formalize the separate arrangement they currently enjoy. •But that's unlikely to satisfy Turkey, which will probably continue to pressure al Sharaa to take a harder line against the SDF. CHINA •A new Pentagon report found that China likely loaded over 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos near Mongolia recently, and concluded that the move suggests Beijing isn't taking Pres. Trump's efforts to engage in denuclearization talks seriously. •Beijing continues to deny that it's aggressively modernizing its military and arms arsenal. Chinese officials have repeatedly accused reports suggesting otherwise - like the Pentagon's latest - of trying to "smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community." •Separately, China slapped provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy products to - in Beijing's view - level the playing field between the domestic dairy industry and subsidized European imports. The European Commission called the new duties unjustified. SUDAN •Sudan's Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, pitched a peace plan that he called "homemade - not imposed on us" to the UN Security Council (UNSC). •Idris's plan is unlikely to gain traction: it calls for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to agree to give up their arms and retreat to supervised camps. •The RSF - which recently captured El Fasher and has the upper hand in Darfur - certainly won't entertain the idea of surrendering its gains so easily. •Idris's proposal isn't going to win U.S. backing, either. Pres. Trump has instead pushed for a humanitarian truce that the U.S. and its allies on the UNSC will support over Idris's stillborn idea. LIBYA •Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has reportedly agreed to buy over $4 billion in arms and military equipment from Pakistan. •Details on the finalized agreement are hazy, but an earlier draft included 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft on the LNA's shopping list. •If the deal goes through - which is a big if, since it appears to contravene the UN's arms embargo on Libya - it would be one of Pakistan's largest arms sales ever.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Oct CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi met in person for the first time in six years yesterday. •It sounds like their nearly two-hour meeting went well: Trump said he would rate it a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10, and Xi said it had given him a "warm" feeling - which is probably about a 12 out of 10 on Xi's understated emotive scale. •Afterwards, Trump told reporters he would lower tariffs on most Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, and said that Xi had agreed in return to buy more U.S. soybeans, to drop restrictions on rare earths exports for a year, and to help crack down on fentanyl. RUSSIA •Just before he met Xi, Trump announced that the U.S. will soon resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other countries, ending a 33-year moratorium on tests. [Insightful analysts pointed out that the "equal basis" qualifier suggests Trump is talking about testing delivery vehicles and other supporting components and not actual nuclear weapons, which no country except North Korea has tested since 1996.] •Many quickly assumed that Trump's announcement was intended to scare Xi ahead of their meeting, but Trump later clarified that his threat wasn't directed at China at all: "it had to do with others." •Trump was likely instead referring to Russia and reacting to a pair of announcements Pres. Putin made this week celebrating two separate tests of nuclear delivery systems. On Sunday, Putin said the nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile had passed its tests and would soon be deployed. Then yesterday, Putin lauded the successful test of a new, nuclear-capable underwater drone - dubbed Poseidon after the Greek god of the sea and storms - designed to trigger a tsunami. •Trump previously called Putin's Burevestnik announcement "inappropriate" and urged Putin to spend his energy on peace talks instead of weapons tests. SUDAN •The World Health Organization raised concerns over credible reports that Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 460 people in the main hospital in El Fasher upon capturing the state capital from the army over the weekend. •That was only one of several documented claims that the RSF is committing ethnically-targeted atrocities in El Fasher. •RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) unconvincingly promised to investigate the concerning accusations against his troops, but the U.S., UN, and others are calling for urgent, genuine action to prevent what many fear could become another full-blown genocide in Darfur. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to resume peace talks in Istanbul after their previous round of dialogue broke down without a resolution. •It's hard to imagine a second round of talks breaking through the intractable impasse that doomed the first one: Kabul will likely continue to deny having any sway over the Pakistani Taliban militants that Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of protecting. But both at least seem to agree on avoiding a costly war over their differences. BRAZIL •Rio de Janeiro's favela raid on the Red Command crime syndicate had already ranked as the city's deadliest of its kind when police estimated they'd killed 60 gangsters. Now - upon counting bodies in a nearby wooded area - the death toll has doubled to 132, including four police. •Police arrested another 113 people and seized 118 weapons and a metric ton of drugs, validating the allegations underpinning their raid. But that hasn't stopped rights groups from criticizing their heavy-handed tactics - or leftists from complaining that the raid was part of a political gambit by Rio's conservative governor, Cláudio Castro, to look tough on crime ahead of next year's elections. •Castro may yet order more raids, as this one failed to capture its main target, senior Red Command leader Edgar Alves Andrade (aka Doca). Doca remains on the lam despite 20 outstanding warrants for his arrest and a R$100,000 ($18,660) bounty on him. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Labor Day in the U.S. Over 150 countries celebrate a similar holiday on International Workers' Day (May 1), but the U.S. chose a different date to distance its commemoration from the May 4 anniversary of the Haymarket Affair, in which anarchists and socialists infused the struggle for labor rights with violence. •Guyana votes for president today. The incumbent, Irfaan Ali, is favored to win, but he faces two strong challengers who have pledged to renegotiate Exxon's contract to reward voters with an even greater share of the spoils of their country's oil bonanza than the $7.5 billion the state received under Ali. •On Wednesday, China will host a Victory Day parade. North Korea's Kim Jong Un will attend, and prepared for his trip by visiting a new North Korean missile production line to practice being impressed by military kit. •In what will certainly be a less ostentatious affair than China's parade, Norway votes for parliament next Monday, Sep. 8. The Labour Party's coalition of left-leaning parties has a slight lead over a right-leaning coalition led by the populist Progress Party and the center-right Conservative Party. A less likely - but more interesting - outcome than an outright victory by either coalition could see the Labour and Conservative Parties each ditch their fringe coalition partners and form an unprecedented centrist coalition. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,616/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,575 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,902/ton •Ethereum: $4,391 •Gold: $3,472/toz - near record highs on concerns about stubborn U.S. inflation and uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's independence following Pres. Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.03/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.64/barrel •Zinc: $2,819/ton AFGHANISTAN •A shallow (i.e., worse), 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan near the border with Pakistan, killing at least 600 - and probably far more. •The quake's timing was terrible: Afghanistan's hospitals were already underequipped and understaffed before the U.S. suspended foreign aid funding earlier this year, and the population they serve has expanded by over two million in recent months as Pakistan and Iran both evicted Afghan nationals. •Even more Afghan deportees are on their way home now, since today is Pakistan's deadline for them to leave or face arrest. YEMEN •An Israeli strike last Thursday killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al Rahawi and several other senior Houthi bureaucrats, but the Houthis' military leadership - who really run the show - weren't part of the meeting that was targeted, and vowed revenge. •Analysts say the already-hawkish Houthi military leadership is likely to nurture its extremist tendencies now that there will be fewer comparatively pragmatic voices around to advocate for moderation - and with Iran weakened and less able to stand up for its proxies. GAZA •An Israeli airstrike reportedly killed Abu Obeida, who served as Hamas's military spokesman and was one of its last surviving senior leaders. •Israel believes the remaining few surviving Hamas leaders - including its current chief in Gaza, Ezzedin Al Haddad - are holed up among hostages in Gaza City, which will be the focus of Israel's imminent offensive. UKRAINE •Andriy Parubiy, a prominent Ukrainian parliamentarian who advocated for closer ties with the European Union, was assassinated in Lviv on Saturday. Ukrainian police quickly arrested a suspect and alleged a "Russian trace" behind the killing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July UKRAINE •The Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9. •In lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22. •Even Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going." RUSSIA •Separately, a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake - perhaps the sixth-largest ever recorded - struck off the coast of eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula early this morning, triggering a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean and warnings and alerts spanning the entire West Coast of the U.S. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •After much prodding from British citizens and MPs appalled by images of starving children in Gaza, Prime Minister Starmer announced that the UK will follow France's lead and recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meets several weighty conditions before then. •In order to avoid the UK recognizing Palestinian statehood in September, Israel must first agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. It must also pledge not to annex the occupied West Bank, and it must commit to a credible process that will eventually grant Palestinian statehood anyway. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's furious reaction declaring that Starmer's ultimatum "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism" suggests Israel is highly unlikely to meet any of Starmer's conditions by September. TRADE •The EU's largest economies are less enthusiastic than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was about the trade deal von der Leyen recently signed with Pres. Trump on behalf of the bloc. •Germany's Chancellor Merz said the deal would "substantially damage" the German economy, and France's Prime Minister Bayrou called its signing a "dark day" for the EU. •Both Merz and Bayrou likely lament the 15% tariff the deal locks in for most goods the EU exports to the U.S. However, pragmatists observe that the alternative was not a continuation of today's lower tariff rates but rather levies far above 15% and a possible trade war. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng talked trade for ten hours over the course of Monday and Tuesday, but only agreed to continue discussions and perhaps - if Pres. Trump approves it - extend the current bilateral tariff pause another 90 days from its expiration date in mid-August. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India said its forces had finally - over 100 days later - killed three of the terrorists involved the April attack in Kashmir that sparked a brief skirmish with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi's government has faced criticism for taking so long to identify and pursue the attackers.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 May UKRAINE •Pres. Putin stood Pres. Zelensky up for today's peace talks in Turkey - which Putin himself had proposed on Sunday in an effort to avoid new sanctions EU leaders had threatened to nudge him towards talks. Zelensky grumbled that Putin's absence indicates "that he does not want to end the war." •It's not clear whether Ukrainian and Russian officials will still meet today. If they do, the Russian delegation will probably be led by hardline Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky rather than Putin himself, which means the summit is unlikely to result in a serious truce. •France is leading an EU effort to slap Putin with a 17th round of sanctions for blowing off peace talks. The new measures would target Russian "shadow" tankers and cyberattackers. SYRIA •On Tuesday, Pres. Trump unexpectedly announced an end to all U.S. sanctions on Syria "in order to give [Syria] a chance at greatness." •U.S. sanctions have hobbled Syria - they were a leading factor in the 90% decline in Syrian exports from 2011 to 2021 - and Syria's new government has successfully argued that it needs sanctions relief to help rebuild the country after 14 years of civil war. •Following his announcement lifting sanctions on Syria, Trump then met with Syria's interim president, Ahmed Al Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia. •Trump encouraged Al Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, and said Al Sharaa agreed to join the Abraham Accords - the 2020 deal in which Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel - at an unspecified future time "when it's straightened out." •Before meeting with Al Sharaa, Pres. Trump addressed an investment conference in Riyadh yesterday with a well-received speech criticizing decades of U.S. nation-building and intervention in other countries and declaring that the U.S. will no longer be "giving you lectures on how to live." •Critics of U.S. intervention cheered the notion of a more hands-off approach, while activists in some countries expressed concern that human rights protections would erode without U.S. pressure behind them. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •The NYT published an excellent satellite analysis of the reciprocal strikes India and Pakistan took at each other during their four-day clash last week. •While both sides "claimed to inflict severe damage" on the other while sustaining minimal damage from the other's strikes, satellite photos suggest that both fought with restraint and precisely targeted military facilities and equipment - especially airplanes and airfields - while taking care to minimize human casualties. India reported losing five soldiers and Pakistan said it lost 11. GAZA •Israel's military likely killed several senior Hamas leaders - including Muhammad Sinwar (Yahya's younger brother), spokesman Abu Obaida, and Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana - in a strike on the European Hospital in Khan Younis. •A Gazan political scientist told the NYT that Sinwar's "death would definitely be another big blow to Hamas...But I’m not sure if his death will lead to a compromise with Israel, and it might even backfire, if his successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar." SAHEL •Mali's junta responded to opposition protests demanding a return to democracy by formally dissolving all political parties and disappearing three opposition politicians who objected to last month's decision to give coup leader Assimi Goita a five-year unelected presidential term. RUSSIA •A Russian court sentenced Grigory Melkonyants - the head of the country's only independent election monitor, Golos - to five years in a penal colony for working with an "undesirable organization:" the Montenegro-based European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations (ENEMO). •Melkonyants insists that Golos has not interacted with ENEMO since the Kremlin branded ENEMO "undesirable" in 2021. It seems that Golos's true offense was documenting widespread fraud in Russian elections.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August Gaza •SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages. •However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them. •Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north. •Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold. •Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night. •The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries. Ukraine •Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!" •Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement. •Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand." •Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk. China •Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision. •The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea. •After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again." Afghanistan •A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country. •Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Open source report