Off Leash Intel · loading
14 direct mentions across 14 briefings, with 12 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire that includes reopening Hormuz. Neither the United States nor Iran had responded and whether the proposal was connected to reported private talks remained unclear.
Developing development · updated through
Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire that includes reopening Hormuz. Neither the United States nor Iran had responded and whether the proposal was connected to reported private talks remained unclear.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Egypt dossier
12 mapped developments across 6 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Rafah, Gaza
The three countries warned Israel of “dangerous consequences” if it proceeds with a planned ground invasion of Rafah.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 6 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges. Iran's leaders have publicly dismissed the ultimatum, but Trump told Fox he thinks there's a "good chance" that private talks will reach a deal today to avoid escalation. •The first round of the golf Masters Tournament opens Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. FOUR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEKEND •Djibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75 that would've rendered him ineligible. Incidentally, that age limit was only imposed as part of a 2010 electoral "reform" that did away with term limits so he could run for a third term. This will be his sixth. •Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday. The Fidesz party's populist incumbent, Viktor Orban, is trailing in (independent) polls by 11 points to the center-right Tisza party's Peter Magyar, but government polls tell a different story, and analysts think Orban will pull out all the stops to extend his 16-year premiership. •Benin will vote for president on Sunday. The ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running. •Peru votes for president and parliament on Sunday. Two right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,470/ton •Antimony (global avg. from Antimony Global): $34,352/ton [Note: I'm switching to a new antimony benchmark that should be a better indicator of global average prices than the unconvincingly flat benchmark I was using for trioxide min. 99.65% fob China. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, antimony is usually traded through private over-the-counter contracts, which means prices are highly volatile and variable. This Antimony Global world average seems like the best big-picture benchmark out there.] •Bitcoin: $68,928 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,360/ton •Ethereum: $2,126 •Gold: $4,665/toz •Lead: $1,933/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.80/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $111.71/barrel •Zinc: $3,265/ton IRAN •Oil markets are volatile while waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal or - in the absence of a deal - if Pres. Trump will make good on his increasingly brash threats against Iran if it doesn't "open the fuckin' strait" by his deadline of 8 pm ET tomorrow. •Trump seemed emboldened to escalate his rhetoric by the success of a high-risk rescue mission to locate and extract a U.S. Air Force colonel whose F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down in southern Iran on Friday. •Iranian forces were desperately searching for the downed airman, too, and would've used him as negotiating leverage if they'd found him first. A CIA deception campaign helped ensure that didn't happen. •Separately, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither has responded yet, and it's unclear whether this is the deal that Trump gave a "good chance" of closing today. •Meanwhile, a likely Israeli strike killed Majid Khademi - the head of intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - earlier today. Khademi had only been in his post since last June, when his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike. TRADE •Bloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering. •That's the highest seven-day rolling total since the war began, and it included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker - both with no clear links to Iran. However, it's still just a trickle compared to the historical average of 138 transits per day. •Iran has reportedly set up a tolling system - which witty commentators dubbed an "ayatollah booth" - to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage. It has also restricted transits to a narrow northern passage, creating a natural limit on traffic too. •Meanwhile, European leaders are exploring options for safeguarding trade in the Strait. They're reportedly considering naval escorts (French Pres. Macron's preferred option), minesweeping, aerial interceptors, and - the bureaucrats' favorite - negotiations and economic measures. All have drawbacks, and none are sure to work. CHINA •Cheng Li-wun, who leads Taiwan's largest opposition party - the Kuomintang (KMT) - won her party's leadership in October after campaigning on closer ties with mainland China. That platform also won her an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit the mainland, which she's doing this week with a delegation that will stop in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing. •Xi's courtship of the KMT under Cheng is likely part of his push to reunify Taiwan. It would be easier if a pliant future KMT government simply agreed to reunification than if Beijing had to take the island by force. •To that end, Beijing also reached out to the current (more defiant) Taiwanese government in early March to offer energy guarantees if it agreed to reunify. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party leaders quickly rejected the proposal, which was probably more of an optics play (to show Taiwan that its leaders refuse dialogue even at the expense of energy security) than a real offer. HUNGARY •Serbian officials discovered two backpacks containing explosives near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary. That appears to corroborate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that "Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy." •However, Hungary's opposition leader, Peter Magyar - who's leading Orban in independent polls ahead of Sunday's election - was skeptical. Magyar accused Orban of staging a "false flag" operation to scare voters into rallying behind their strongman leader on Sunday.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct RUSSIA •Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure. •Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil. VENEZUELA •Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening. •The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm. SUDAN •According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war. •Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo. NIGER •Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey. •Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023. •Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey. WEST BANK •Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank. •Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval. •Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass. 1/2
Open source reportProspective Gaza ceasefire terms, Russia’s engagement with Afghanistan and Venezuela, Iran’s postwar diplomacy, BRICS attendance, U.S. trade meetings and market prices.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 March 2025 VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump accused Pres. Maduro's government of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending criminals and murderers - i.e. the Tren de Aragua gang - to the U.S., and announced plans to impose a punitive 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy oil from Venezuela - even indirectly. •The largest buyers of Venezuelan oil are China, the U.S. (via Chevron's production, which Trump has ordered to wind down), Spain, and India. Rystad Energy thinks the threat of new tariffs will lead those buyers to seek other sources of oil, which should be fairly easy for all four countries: Venezuelan oil is not a major share of total oil imports for any of them. •Separately, the U.S. resumed deportation flights to Venezuela via Honduras after striking a deal with both Venezuela and Honduras over the weekend. TURKEY •Pres. Erdogan isn't backing down from his standoff with Istanbul mayor - and potential rival for the presidency - Ekrem Imamoglu. •Erdogan had Imamoglu fired from his mayoral post and re-arrested on Sunday - just hours before Imamoglu's party planned to name him as its candidate for the next presidential election. •Erdogan accuses Imamoglu of corruption and supporting terrorism; Imamoglu says the charges against him are bogus and politically motivated. •Tens of thousands of Turks seem to side with Imamoglu: the mayor's arrest sparked the biggest protests Turkey has seen in over 10 years, and Erdogan's authoritarian response - to arrest over 1,000 demonstrators, including journalists - risks feeding protesters additional grievances against Erdogan to rally behind. GAZA •Egypt proposed a new, limited ceasefire proposal for Gaza and said Hamas responded positively to the terms, which would see Hamas release five hostages in return for Israel lifting restrictions on aid flows. •Israel said it hadn't seen the proposal yet. AFGHANISTAN •The U.S. lifted bounties on three senior Taliban officials: Sirajuddin Haqqani, Abdul Azizi Haqqani, and Yahya Haqqani. •The reprieve was apparently part of a deal that U.S. envoy Adam Boehler struck when he visited Kabul last week. In return, the Taliban released a U.S. citizen who had been detained in Afghanistan for over two years. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war. Forces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday. •Kiir's side accused Machar's opposition of "scaling up their movements" and said Machar's forces had deployed a patrol "in military formation" to observe army positions. Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress. Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source reportCeasefire diplomacy and militant activity involving Gaza, Ukrainian strikes in Russia’s Kursk region, a China-Philippines maritime confrontation, and security claims concerning Afghanistan.
Open source reportRussian legal and influence activity, Gaza hostilities and ceasefire diplomacy, Iran’s domestic and foreign-policy posture, Chinese naval operations, and U.S. electric-vehicle sales.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4/9 Gaza Turkey lodged a form of protest over Israel's war in Gaza by enacting new restrictions on exports of 54 military items to Israel. The move was partly a response to Israel's opposition to Turkish aid airdrops in Gaza, but also an acknowledgement of rising public anger over the war, which was in full view when thousands of Turks turned out to demonstrate against Israel over the weekend. The leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan also put Israel on notice: they warned of "dangerous consequences" if Israel proceeds with its planned ground invasion of Rafah. Israel seems to be moving forward with the Rafah invasion anyway: today PM Netanyahu announced that a date had been set for the operation (though he didn't share that date with the media). Hamas still hasn't officially responded to Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, but its leaders said the plan failed to meet any of their demands. They plan to deliver a formal response to mediators in the coming days. Separately, Israel issued a warning to Iran, which is weighing its options for retaliating against last week's Israeli strike that killed seven of its military officials in Damascus last week. Israel warned that it would strike nuclear facilities in Iran if Iran attacks targets within Israel. Some analysts are guessing that Iran will instead focus on Israeli-linked targets (like embassies) in a third country. Russia Six northern European countries - Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway - signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure (e.g. telecom and power cables and gas pipes) from sabotage by "hostile actors." Russia is the main threat they're concerned about - and the main suspect in last year's attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline. Libya According to new reports, PM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders. The U.S. State Department apparently condones the program: it's coordinating with Amentum. Afghanistan The Taliban's acting telecoms minister confirmed to ToloNews that his government plans to ban access to Facebook from Afghanistan. Human rights groups condemned the news. Other News March's global temperatures broke seasonal heat records for the tenth month in a row: the El Niño weather cycle is exacerbating a long-term upward trend in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Open source report