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185 developments across 122 briefings for this country.
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Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program. A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.
Assessment development · updated through
Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program. A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine dossier
134 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine
Zelensky signed legislation reducing the draft age from 27 to 25. The measure could support recruitment and rotation of troops from the front lines amid concern about a possible Russian offensive.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
That may be a price Pres. Zelensky is willing to pay to continue the momentum that Federov's drones won for Ukraine.
Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program. A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky heeded protesters' calls and fired his top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Zelensky fired top general Oleksandr Syrskyi after tens of thousands protested the dismissal of former defense minister Mykhailo Federov. Zelensky selected a Federov ally to replace Syrskyi and promised Federov a prominent position.
Open source reportRussia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes.
Russia launched one of its largest attacks yet against Kyiv. The attack will strengthen President Zelensky’s calls for additional Patriot air-defense missiles.
Open source reportUkraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing.
Thousands protested the firing of former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Fedorov accused commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi of obstructing military-modernization initiatives and that protesters called for Syrskyi’s removal.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky sacked his defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, after just six months. Insiders say... [he] clashed with older generals in his ministry and established defense contractors
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after six months. Unnamed insiders attributed the move to clashes with senior generals and established defense contractors over Fedorov’s approach to warfare.
Open source reportThat's why some experts suggested building Ukraine's Patriot factory under NATO's security shield in Poland instead.
Ukraine would need years and substantial contractor assistance to establish production, with construction exposed to Russian attack. An expert proposal to locate the factory in Poland under NATO protection.
Open source reportPres. Trump announced that he'd agreed to let Ukraine make its own Patriot missiles.
Trump announced after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky at a NATO summit in Turkey that Ukraine could manufacture Patriot missiles under license. Ukraine would be the third foreign licensee after Germany and Japan.
Open source reportKyiv certainly had a motive to cut off a key source of its enemy's future war funding. It also had a reason to conceal its state involvement: Germany was and is one of Ukraine's strongest supporters in Europe, and Kyiv wouldn't have wanted to risk antagonizing its backers in Berlin with an attack on a key potential source of German energy.
Ukraine had a wartime motive to disrupt prospective Russian gas revenue but would have sought to conceal state involvement to avoid antagonizing Germany, a major supporter.
Open source reportThis week, German prosecutors indicted Ukrainian army officer Serhiy Kuznietsov on war crimes charges related to the 2022 sabotage attack on the Baltic Nord Stream pipeline that was set to supply Russian gas to Germany. In the course of their indictment, prosecutors that Ukrainian "state authorities" ordered the attack and Kuznietsov merely carried it out.
German prosecutors indicted Ukrainian army officer Serhiy Kuznietsov on war-crimes charges connected to the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage; Ukrainian state authorities ordered the attack.
Open source reportThe Economist hypothesized that Russia's attack "was probably retribution for Ukrainian drone attacks in June that disabled Moscow’s oil refinery," leaving the Kremlin "angry and frustrated."
The Economist’s hypothesis that the Russian attack was likely retaliation for June Ukrainian drone attacks that disabled Moscow’s oil refinery.
Open source reportRussia pummeled Kyiv with 74 ballistic missiles and 496 drones overnight, killing at least 27 in what Kyiv mayor (and former heavyweight boxing champion) Vitaly Klitschko called the "most massive attack" on the capital yet, in terms of the number of weapons deployed and locations struck.
Russia launched 74 ballistic missiles and 496 drones against Kyiv overnight, killing at least 27 people. Mayor Vitaly Klitschko calling it the capital’s largest attack to date by the number of weapons and locations struck.
Open source reportthis year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting.
According to CSIS, an assessment that Russia suffered eight casualties for every Ukrainian casualty in 2026, compared with two to three previously, and that Ukraine’s intensified use of advanced drones contributed to the shift.
Open source reportCSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action
CSIS estimated 525,000–625,000 Ukrainian casualties, including 125,000–150,000 deaths, and 1.4 million Russian casualties, including 450,000 killed in action.
Open source reportPres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious."
According to President Putin, an acknowledgment that Ukrainian long-range drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure caused problems and a fuel shortage, although he described the situation as not critical. Russia is also said to be considering gasoline imports from Kazakhstan and India.
Open source reportA related Ukrainian campaign aims to cut off Russian-occupied Crimea's fuel supplies by targeting transport and shipping routes between the peninsula and mainland Russia.
Ukraine is targeting transport and shipping links between Russia and occupied Crimea to reduce fuel deliveries. An 80% cancellation rate for one tour company’s June bookings to RBC and presents the campaign as an attempt comes from increase the economic cost of the war for Moscow.
Open source reportUkraine launched another round of long-range strikes deep inside Russia yesterday, including its largest attack yet on Moscow.
Another round of Ukrainian strikes, including what it calls Ukraine’s largest attack on Moscow, followed by Russian threats of retaliation. Figures indicating an accelerating Ukrainian deep-strike campaign; attacks on oil infrastructure reduced Russian refinery production by 15% in the referenced year-on-year period.
Open source reportSeparately, the European Union (EU) formally launched the first stage of accession negotiations with Ukraine.
The EU formally began the first stage of accession negotiations after Hungary’s Peter Magyar accepted Ukrainian commitments concerning ethnic Hungarian rights. According to Magyar, an estimate that full membership could take more than a decade, while 2027 is overly ambitious.
Open source reportSome analysts think the early warnings were intended to inflict a psychological toll on Ukrainians who have spent recent days on high alert, with many sleeping in subway stations or parking lots for safety.
Some analysts viewed advance warnings of the attack as an effort to impose a psychological toll on Ukrainians. The Economist’s assessment that Russia has intensified attacks on civilian areas while struggling to advance on the front line.
Open source reportRussia launched one of its biggest recent assaults on Ukraine overnight, targeting several cities and killing at least 17. More are likely trapped under rubble.
Russia attacked several Ukrainian cities overnight, killing at least 17 people, with additional people potentially trapped under rubble.
Open source report“Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets.”
About €2.5 billion of the loan will support a Swedish deal to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighters. Sweden also plans to transfer 16 used Gripen C/D aircraft.
Open source report“Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending.”
The Verkhovna Rada ratified a €90 billion loan, with about two-thirds designated for defense and the remainder for broader economic support. Repayment is contingent on Russia paying postwar reparations.
Open source reportAround €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine.
Approximately €2.5 billion of the loan will finance Sweden’s proposed sale of up to 20 Gripen E/F fighters. Sweden also plans to transfer 16 used Gripen C/D aircraft.
Open source reportUkraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support.
Ukraine’s parliament ratified a €90 billion loan, with roughly two-thirds allocated to defense and the remainder to broader economic support. Repayment depends on Russia paying postwar reparations.
Open source reportUkraine's military shared several videos purporting to show Russian soldiers surrending to Ukrainian ground robots, surprising even the company making the robots, DevDroid.
Ukraine’s military released videos showing Russian soldiers surrendering to robotic systems. Robotic custody is reducing the danger to Ukrainian personnel from surrendering troops carrying explosives.
Open source reportUkraine's anti-corruption court ordered the arrest of Pres. Zelensky's former top aide, Andriy Yermak, on money-laundering charges just days after naming Yermak as a suspect in a widening corruption probe.
Ukraine’s anti-corruption court ordered Yermak’s arrest on money-laundering charges after he was named as a suspect in a corruption probe. Yermak denies wrongdoing and plans to appeal; the case could affect a future Zelensky campaign without threatening his current term.
Open source reportRussia's resumption of strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has ended those hopes.
Russia resumed attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure after a three-day ceasefire, ending hopes that the pause would be extended.
Open source reportSeparately, the European Union slapped sanctions on 16 more officials and seven more organizations accused of facilitating Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children.
The EU sanctioned 16 additional officials and seven organizations accused of facilitating Russia’s removal of Ukrainian children. Ukrainian authorities as estimating that 20,500 children have been deported since 2022 and approximately 2,000 returned.
Open source reportUkraine's anti-corruption authorities formally notified Pres. Zelensky's former chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, that he's a suspect in their widening investigation into corruption in the senior ranks of Zelensky's government.
Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities formally notified former presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak that he is a suspect. Investigators linked Yermak and two former officials to plans to spend 460 million hryvnia in illicit proceeds on neighboring luxury homes.
Open source reportUkraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires.
Ukraine began an open-ended ceasefire contingent on Russian reciprocity, while Russia announced a ceasefire beginning Friday and threatened a “massive missile strike” for Ukrainian noncompliance. Kyiv accused Russia of front-line violations without ending its truce.
Open source reportUkraine hasn't publicly accepted or rejected the offer yet, and could be firing some parting shots to improve its position ahead of possible negotiations during the detente.
The attacks do not necessarily foreclose a temporary ceasefire; they could be intended to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. Ukraine had not publicly accepted or rejected the proposal.
Open source reportKyiv is on a mission to target Russia's "shadow grain fleet," which has exported 850,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain on 50 different voyages between January and April.
According to Ukraine, a claim that a Russian-linked fleet exported 850,000 tons of grain taken from occupied Ukrainian territory on 50 voyages between January and April.
Open source reportPresidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday - their 12th call since Trump's return to office - and afterwards floated the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine
Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin discussed a temporary ceasefire tied to Russia's May 9 Victory Day. Ukraine cautiously welcomed the idea but sought further details before agreeing.
Open source reportUkraine's Pres. Zelensky said repairs to the Druzhba pipeline have been completed and the pipeline can resume carrying Russian oil to Europe.
The pipeline can resume carrying Russian oil to Europe. Kyiv hopes reopening it will remove Hungarian and Slovak opposition to a €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine.
Open source reportLike its two previous claims, this one seems premature: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remain outside Russian control.
Russia claimed full control of Luhansk but relayed an Institute for the Study of War assessment that Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remained outside Russian control.
Open source reportTrump is effectively backing Russia's position and assuming the cost of getting Ukraine to agree to it.
Linking U.S. guarantees to Ukrainian territorial concessions would support a Russian condition for ending the war and place the burden of agreement on Ukraine.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration is demanding that he agree to give up parts of the Donbas still under Ukrainian control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.
Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration was demanding Ukraine relinquish parts of the Donbas still under Kyiv's control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.
Open source reportKyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump
Kyiv hopes sharing its counter-drone experience will improve its position with Washington before U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, while noting analyst skepticism that the effort will influence President Trump.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the claim that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping defend U.S. military bases in Jordan and may soon be used at U.S. bases elsewhere in the Gulf.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere.
President Zelensky expected U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions to resume once developments in the Middle East allowed Washington to redirect its attention.
Open source reportUkrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades.
Ukrainian officials reported that Russia accepted some elements of U.S.-proposed postwar security guarantees. Territorial exchanges remain unresolved; Moscow could reverse its position.
Open source reportThe delegates reported no progress towards resolving two of the thorniest issues blocking a peace deal: the future of the Donbas region and post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia did, however, agree to another prisoner swap, and the U.S. and Russia agreed to restart talks between their militaries after a four-year lull.
Three hours of trilateral talks produced no progress on Donbas or postwar security guarantees. Agreement on another Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap and the resumption of U.S.-Russia military talks after a four-year pause.
Open source reportA new survey of Ukrainians found that 40% now say they're open to the idea of giving up the Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees... a majority of Ukrainians - 60% - still oppose ceding the Donbas to Russia
A new survey found 40% of Ukrainians open to relinquishing the Donbas for security guarantees, compared with 60% opposed. Some respondents from Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine would leave their homes if that secured peace.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky reported that Pres. Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees during their meeting on Sunday. That's far short of the indefinite guarantees Zelensky had sought, but Zelensky seemed content to compromise
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, a statement that Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees. Zelensky appeared willing to compromise despite having sought indefinite guarantees.
Open source reportTrump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete.
Trump spoke with Putin and then met Zelensky to discuss ending the war. Trump said the parties may be close to a ceasefire and Zelensky as describing a proposal as 90% complete, while noting reported Kremlin objections to provisions including European peacekeepers.
Open source reportThe new, 20-point plan - which Zelensky called "quite solid" - calls on Russia to withdraw from some of the territory it has occupied in eastern Ukraine to create a demilitarized buffer zone. Zelensky said Ukraine would consider pulling its troops back, too.
The Ukraine-U.S. proposal calls for Russia to withdraw from some occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to create a demilitarized buffer zone, with Ukraine also considering troop withdrawals.
Open source reportOne new aspect of the tabled peace proposal would see U.S. intelligence and European troops reinforce Ukraine's post-war security and help deter a repeat Russian invasion in the future.
A peace proposal under discussion would involve U.S. intelligence support and European troops to reinforce Ukraine’s postwar security and deter another Russian invasion. Russia would reject the proposal.
Open source reportPres. Trump relaxed his deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace plan its negotiators have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts.
President Trump withdrew an earlier soft deadline for Ukraine to agree to a peace proposal under discussion with U.S. negotiators, saying his deadline was “when it's over.”
Open source reportThe fall of Pokrovsk would be Russia's biggest battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut over two years ago, and it would give Russian forces a base for further advances in the Donbas.
Capturing Pokrovsk would provide Russia a base for further Donbas operations and could help Putin argue to Trump that Russian victory is inevitable and further U.S. arms transfers are futile.
Open source reportAfter 21 months of grueling battle, Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing the Donbas city of Pokrovsk - though Ukraine insists its forces are still resisting and are not cut off yet.
Russia appears close to capturing Pokrovsk after 21 months of fighting, while Ukraine maintains that its forces are still resisting and have not been cut off.
Open source reportThe new intelligence report noted that Cuba is "at the very top" of countries sending hired guns to fight for Moscow, with at least 20,000 Cuban citizens recruited so far.
Ukrainian military intelligence as alleging that thousands of foreign fighters support Russia and that at least 20,000 Cuban citizens have been recruited.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky said his armed forces had reclaimed 160 sq km (62 sq mi) of territory in Donetsk from Russian forces in a counteroffensive that Zelensky called an "important success."
President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Ukrainian forces reclaimed 160 square kilometers from Russian forces in a counteroffensive he called an “important success.”
Open source reportThe study documented at least 210 Russian sites holding Ukrainian children (vs. around half that number in initial estimates). Some of those sites are military training schools; others are education camps with a severe pro-Russian nationalist slant.
According to Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab, the documentation of at least 210 Russian sites holding Ukrainian children from occupied territories, including military-training schools and pro-Russian education camps.
Open source reportNow, Poland's foreign minister, for one, thinks that "If Ukraine were to ask us” to shoot down drones over its territory, it will be advantageous for us." •The U.S. will likely remain opposed to the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine for the same reasons as before.
Poland’s foreign minister viewed shooting down drones over Ukraine as advantageous if Kyiv requested it. Washington will probably remain opposed because of escalation risks with Russia.
Open source reportFrance's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia.
26 countries agreed to be present on land, at sea or in the air under a potential peace settlement. Germany, Italy, Poland and the United States oppose ground deployments, while Estonia, France and the United Kingdom have publicly considered them. U.S. representatives participated and that President Trump urged leaders to stop buying Russian oil and pressure China over support for Russia’s war effort.
Open source reportAndriy Parubiy, a prominent Ukrainian parliamentarian who advocated for closer ties with the European Union, was assassinated in Lviv on Saturday.
Pro-European Union parliamentarian Andriy Parubiy was assassinated in Lviv. Police arrested a suspect; a possible Russian connection.
Open source reportAnalysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine.
Analysts who interpret Russia’s reported advance as an effort by President Vladimir Putin to acquire bargaining chips before possible peace negotiations.
Open source reportRussian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time.
Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time.
Open source reportRussia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position
Russia is trying to capture additional territory to strengthen its position in eventual negotiations and is not yet ready to pursue peace seriously.
Open source reportRussian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack.
Russian troops are using small groups of infantry to cross and regroup behind Ukrainian lines before attacking.
Open source reportRussia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted Russia must be a party to future security guarantees for Ukraine, including potential U.S.-considered guarantees described as NATO-like.
Open source reportThe White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump.
According to the White House, a claim that Putin agreed to a bilateral meeting with Zelensky, potentially followed by a trilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump if necessary.
Open source reportUkraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of a land swap, and Pres. Zelensky pre-emptively reiterated that position yesterday in advance of Friday's talks. Zelensky wasn't invited to Alaska on Friday
Zelensky rejected a land swap before the Alaska meeting and was not invited to participate.
Open source reportTrump noted that a possible ceasefire proposal would involve "some swapping of territories," which analysts took to mean that Ukraine would be asked to cede some of its eastern regions to their Russian occupants.
Trump’s reference to “some swapping of territories” is potentially requiring Ukraine to relinquish eastern regions occupied by Russia.
Open source reportPres. Trump said he may send envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia this week to push Pres. Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire: "We’ve got to get to a deal where people stop getting killed."
Trump said he may send envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia to press Putin toward a Ukraine ceasefire. Trump gave Putin 10 to 12 days to agree to a truce or face new sanctions.
Open source reportNABU and SAPO, announced that they had disrupted a major bribery scheme… in exchange for kickbacks of up to 30% of the contracts' value.
NABU and SAPO disrupted a scheme in which a lawmaker, local officials, and National Guard personnel inflated prices for drones and other military equipment in exchange for kickbacks reaching 30% of contract value.
Open source reportEven Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going."
Trump is quoted as saying his tariff threat “may or may not” work and judging that Putin probably wants to continue the war.
Open source reportIn lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22.
Russian missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro killed at least 22 people and interprets the attacks as an indirect response to Trump’s ultimatum.
Open source reportThe Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9.
The Kremlin “took note” of Trump’s threat to impose new sanctions and penalties unless a ceasefire with Ukraine is reached around August 7–9.
Open source reportLast year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%.
The share of Russian Shahed drones breaching Ukrainian air defenses rose from 7% last year to 11% in the current year to date.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies.
Zelensky wants Ukraine to increase the domestically produced share of its weapons from 40% to 50% within six months.
Open source reportits Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action.
Ukraine’s Brave1 defense-technology incubator launched a program through which Ukrainian troops would test allied countries’ weapons prototypes in combat conditions; on their performance.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky said he plans to nominate first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko to replace longstanding prime minister Denys Shmyhal, who will become defense minister.
President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to nominate First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko to replace Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, with Shmyhal moving to the defense portfolio. The plan to a stated need comes from renew the government amid stalled talks and public cynicism.
Open source reportSeparately, Russian state media said Russian forces captured a village in Dnipropetrovsk. It would be Russia's first foothold in the eastern Ukrainian region, and could be part of Pres. Putin's theat to expand territorial gains in Ukraine in the absence of a peace deal (though some analysts suggest thinly-spread Russian forces will struggle to keep control of new territory).
The unnamed village would represent Russia’s first foothold in the region if confirmed. An assessment that thinly spread Russian forces could struggle to retain new territory.
Open source reportOne Ukrainian F-16 crashed while defending against the Russian attack, killing the pilot. Ukraine has now lost three of its unknown number of F-16s.
The pilot was killed and characterizes the aircraft as Ukraine’s third F-16 loss, without identifying a corroborating source.
Open source reportRussia hit Ukraine with yet another largest aerial barrage yet, launching 537 drones and missiles overnight. As often, this round of strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure.
The attack is Russia’s largest aerial barrage to date; Ukrainian infrastructure was targeted.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky repeated his concern that Russian ballistic missiles rely on parts imported from other countries - "unfortunately, sometimes even from Europe or NATO countries" - and called on weapons-makers to stop selling to Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russian ballistic missiles rely on imported components, including some originating in European or NATO countries, and urged weapons manufacturers to halt sales to Russia.
Open source reportRussia fired ballistic missiles at Dnipro yesterday, killing 17 and causing what Dnipro's mayor called "an unprecedented amount of destruction that the city has not seen in the entire time of [Russia’s] full-scale war."
17 deaths and extensive destruction in Dnipro comes from Russian ballistic-missile strikes, quoting the city’s mayor as describing unprecedented destruction during the full-scale war.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%."
President Volodymyr Zelensky relieved army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of responsibilities including recruit training so he could focus on the front. The change is linked to criticism following a June 1 strike on a training ground that killed 12 people; Drapatyi later led stabilization efforts around Pokrovsk.
Open source reportThe Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians.
A CSIS study estimating nearly one million Russian and roughly 400,000 Ukrainian personnel killed or wounded. An estimate that Russian progress in some areas has slowed to about 50 meters per day.
Open source reportPresidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday, but the two-hour call yielded no tangible progress towards peace.
Trump and Putin held a two-hour call on May 19; it yielded no tangible progress. It adds that Trump encouraged direct Putin-Zelensky negotiations and that Putin reiterated that a ceasefire must address the crisis’s “root causes.”
Open source reportUkraine and the U.S. finally signed a mineral revenue-sharing agreement after months of negotiations
Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement creating a joint investment fund linked to Ukraine’s future mineral revenues. Neither side had fully disclosed the terms.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine accepted an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire at U.S. insistence, while Russia had not committed and instead launched more than 100 drones overnight.
Open source reportPerhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine.
Putin expressed openness to the first direct bilateral peace talks since the early weeks of the 2022 war. Washington proposed a broad ceasefire framework; missing details could become negotiating obstacles.
Open source reportThe U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop.
The proposed U.S. ceasefire framework as broad and warns that unspecified details could become negotiating obstacles.
Open source reportPres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022.
Putin told reporters he was open to bilateral peace talks with Ukraine, which as potentially the first direct talks since the early weeks of the 2022 war.
Open source reportRussia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave.
Russian missiles struck Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations, killing at least 34 people. Early reports of two waves, with the second arriving after emergency responders reached victims of the first.
Open source reportIt's clear that it will take further negotiations to secure a concrete Black Sea truce.
Russia’s conditions, Ukrainian opposition and likely EU resistance leave a concrete Black Sea truce unresolved.
Open source reportFollowing three days of indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia each agreed to "end the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure "safe passage" of vessels through it - but under certain conditions that still seem far off.
Indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia produced separate Ukrainian and Russian commitments to end the use of force and ensure safe vessel passage in the Black Sea. Russia conditioned implementation on U.S. and EU relief from restrictions affecting Russian agricultural exports, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky opposed weakening sanctions.
Open source reportChina is considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission.
China was considering contributing peacekeepers to a postwar truce if the parties wanted it. Russia could be more receptive to a mission involving China than to NATO peacekeepers.
Open source reportThe White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan
According to the White House plans for additional U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Saudi Arabia aimed at securing, a Black Sea truce and eventually a broader ceasefire acceptable to Ukraine and Russia.
Open source reportZelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement
Trump and Zelensky held a more cordial call and that Zelensky accepted a proposal to pause attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. Zelensky requested U.S. monitoring of protected energy sites.
Open source reportPresidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO.
Presidents Trump and Putin planned a phone call concerning Trump’s ceasefire proposal. Putin is unenthusiastic; he wants guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Open source reportPutin clearly feels that Russia has the upper hand in the war and doesn't need to rush into a truce, since the conditions he laid out ranged from challenging to impossible.
Russia’s proposed conditions are evidence that Putin believes Russia holds the battlefield advantage and can delay an agreement.
Open source reportPutin hasn't explicitly rejected it and he continues to engage mediators - including Pres. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince MBS - to discuss it.
Putin outlined conditions for accepting the U.S.-proposed ceasefire and would require Ukrainian troops in Kursk to surrender rather than receive safe passage. Russia continued engaging U.S. and Saudi intermediaries.
Open source reportthe UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea
The United Kingdom and France offered troops for a prospective peacekeeping mission but Russia rejected foreign peacekeepers.
Open source reportTheir proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops
Civilian and military analysts unveiled a proposal originating from a 2022 Geneva meeting. For a six-mile buffer zone along 700 miles of front lines, monitored by peacekeepers including foreign troops.
Open source reportTheir proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops
A framework developed from a spring 2022 Geneva meeting that proposed a six-mile buffer zone along the roughly 700-mile front, monitored by peacekeepers including foreign troops. The UK and France had offered troops but Russia rejected the idea.
Open source reportA Ukrainian lawmaker told RBC-Ukraine that his military "has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course."
Alternative intelligence sources and non-U.S. military assistance would prevent an immediate change in the war’s trajectory. An unnamed Ukrainian lawmaker as estimating a roughly six-month margin without systematic U.S. assistance, although conditions would become more difficult.
Open source reportDays after suspending U.S. military support for Ukraine, the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence - including targeting information - with Ukraine too.
The United States stopped sharing intelligence, including targeting information, shortly after suspending military assistance to Ukraine. U.S. officials expected the suspensions to last one or two weeks and intended them to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky over ceasefire terms.
Open source reportHowever, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal.
Uranium, graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths are potential contributors to the proposed fund, but claims roughly 40% of Ukraine’s mineral resources are in Russian-controlled regions. Russia would likely retain those areas under a peace agreement.
Open source reportUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine.
A leaked draft would direct half of Ukraine’s revenues from new mineral and energy projects into a U.S.-controlled investment fund that would partly support reconstruction. Existing operations would be excluded, while proposed repayment and $500 billion contribution provisions were omitted. The draft offered no firm U.S. security guarantee, and Zelensky was expected in Washington on February 28 to sign the agreement.
Open source reportU.S. and Ukrainian officials announced that they'd reached a deal that would grant the U.S. a share of Ukrainian mineral revenues.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced an agreement granting the United States a share of future Ukrainian mineral revenue. The final translated draft was unavailable and that provisions involving security guarantees and up to half of future mineral-sale revenue remained unclear.
Open source reportAt the UN, the U.S. voted against a non-binding European resolution condemning Russia for the war and calling on it to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. The U.S. instead introduced its own, softer resolution.
The United States voted against a European resolution condemning Russia and demanding its withdrawal from Ukraine, then introduced a softer resolution calling for a rapid end to the war.
Open source reportAfter hosting France's Pres. Macron at the White House, Pres. Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine...could be over "within weeks." Trump added that he may visit Moscow in the coming months to advance peace talks with Pres. Putin.
President Trump made the prediction after hosting French President Emmanuel Macron and indicated that he might visit Moscow in the coming months to advance talks with President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian and European leaders object to being excluded from bilateral U.S.-Russia discussions.
Open source reportEuropean leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment... and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future.
Zelensky and European leaders objected to their exclusion from the U.S.-Russia meeting. According to Trump, criticism of Ukraine; EU leaders were organizing another emergency summit.
Open source reportA long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas.
Russian long-range missiles and drones targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and other infrastructure around Lviv, prompting power-grid shutdowns in some surrounding areas.
Open source reportDespite Ukraine's new offensive in Kursk, Russia continues to gain ground inside Ukraine. Earlier this week, Russian forces captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove after months of fighting.
Russian forces captured the eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove after months of fighting, while Ukraine continued an offensive in Russia’s Kursk region.
Open source reportU.S. intelligence officials said that Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Pres. Putin... on his own volition, and not because Putin asked for his help.
Kim Jong Un volunteered North Korean troops to support Vladimir Putin rather than responding to a Russian request. That North Korean forces are taking losses and performing poorly is reinforcements.
Open source reportRussia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages.
Russia launched an overnight air barrage against Ukrainian infrastructure, prompting another round of emergency power outages.
Open source reportSyrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take... We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time.
According to Ukrainian commander Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, a warning that defending Pokrovsk would require unconventional decisions. The author speculates that Ukraine could attempt a diversionary offensive.
Open source reportRussia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts.
Russian ground forces were within approximately five kilometers of Pokrovsk’s outskirts amid extremely fierce fighting.
Open source reporta new Yale University report concluded that Pres. Putin and other senior Russian officials "intentionally and directly" allowed the forced deportation, fostering, and eventual adoption of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Ukraine
A Yale University report concluded that Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials intentionally allowed the deportation, fostering, and adoption of children from occupied Ukrainian territory.
Open source reportNATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged members of the alliance to boost their military support for Ukraine so Ukraine can "get to a position of strength when...peace talks start."
According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, a call for allies to increase military assistance so Ukraine can enter any future negotiations from a stronger position.
Open source reportThat's not going to happen: Pres. Putin would reject the idea, and NATO isn't unanimously excited about welcoming any part of Ukraine under its umbrella.
Russia would reject the proposed arrangement and that NATO members lack unanimity on extending protection to any portion of Ukraine.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky proposed an unlikely solution to end the war: he said Ukraine could agree to a truce if areas now under Ukrainian control were placed "under the NATO umbrella" with negotiations over areas now under Russian control to follow later.
President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed a truce under which Ukrainian-controlled territory would receive NATO protection while negotiations over Russian-controlled areas followed later.
Open source reportRussia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines.
Russia launched drones and missiles against more than 180 targets in western Ukraine. Ukrainian forces intercepted most projectiles but successful strikes cut electricity to more than one million people.
Open source reportReuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains.
Russian forces were advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 through small incursions followed by reinforcements. No Reuters URL was included among the allowed sources.
Open source reportUkraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets.
Russia launched 188 drones against Ukraine and targeted infrastructure. According to Ukraine, the claim that most drones were intercepted or disrupted, while some reached their targets.
Open source reportFinancial Times reported that Russia has recruited - and, in some cases, forced - hundreds of Yemenis to fight in its war against Ukraine.
A Financial Times report that Russia recruited—and in some cases forced—hundreds of Yemenis to fight in Ukraine. Some recruits lacked training, could not read their Russian-language contracts and were threatened into signing.
Open source reportThe UK now estimates that Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties over the 1,000 days of the war to date.
UK and Ukrainian officials and the BBC as concluding that Russian military casualties peaked in October. According to the UK, an average of 1,354 Russian personnel killed or injured daily that month and 700,000 casualties over 1,000 days of war.
Open source reportRussia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones.
Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukrainian defenses intercepted two cruise missiles, two ballistic missiles, and 37 drones; falling debris caused minor warehouse damage and one minor injury.
Open source reportU.S. analysts think China is already uncomfortable with North Korea... cozying up to Russia too, and wary that North Korea's involvement in Ukraine will draw the West into meddling in East Asian security concerns.
President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the lack of allied response; his remarks to South Korean television may have sought additional support from Seoul. U.S. diplomats were asking China to restrain North Korea and Beijing may be uncomfortable with closer Russia–North Korea ties.
Open source reportUkraine's spies said they intercepted battlefield communications that suggested Russia is struggling to integrate its borrowed North Korean special forces troops.
Intercepted battlefield calls indicated that Russia lacked sufficient commanders, ammunition, weapons and translators to integrate North Korean troops. An allocation of one translator and three Russian soldiers per 30 North Koreans.
Open source reportThat's an interesting spin and could be Zelensky's second-best outcome for a plan that has failed to impress Western allies.
Zelensky’s inability to secure Western backing for his victory plan could become a second-best outcome by demonstrating that he exhausted available options and preparing Ukrainians for a possible agreement.
Open source reportA Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side... Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond"
According to a Pentagon spokesperson, the possibility that Washington could loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of donated long-range weapons if North Korea joined the war. Russia’s Defense Ministry was considering how to respond.
Open source reportthe "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation
An assessment attributed to The Economist and former British defense attaché John Foreman that Russia’s reliance on North Korea reflects reduced standards for allies and desperation, while warning that North Korean forces could complicate Ukrainian defenses.
Open source reportthe mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting
A video attributed to a Chinese mercenary using the name Dian Yuzhan, who said eight North Korean officers were killed on their first day of fighting.
Open source reportIt now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia.
South Korea estimated that 3,000 North Korean troops had reached the front out of 11,000 committed by Pyongyang to support Russia.
Open source reportSouth Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine.
South Korea’s intelligence service used satellite imagery to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean special-forces troops were fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. An earlier Ukrainian warning that North Korea planned to send as many as 10,000 troops.
Open source reportRussia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend.
Russia targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend; it supplies no further information about damage or casualties.
Open source reportIts centerpiece is a request for NATO to extend an unconditional invitation to Ukraine to join its alliance
President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine’s victory plan to parliament and the media after discussing it with leaders of the United Kingdom, United States, France, Italy, and Germany. Its public elements included an unconditional NATO invitation and expanded military support, while three additional points remained restricted.
Open source reportUkraine's Parliament approved a major tax hike that will supplement increasingly hesitant donor contributions for its war effort. Personal income tax will nearly quadruple (from 1.5% to 5.0%)
Parliament approved an increase in personal income tax from 1.5% to 5% and a retroactive doubling of the bank-profit tax from 25%. Much of the revenue will support military spending, described as exceeding half of Ukraine’s approximately $100 billion annual budget.
Open source reportSouth Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine
South Korea’s defense minister told parliament it was highly likely that North Korean personnel were fighting for Russia under the countries’ mutual-defense pact, while acknowledging that the claim remained unconfirmed.
Open source reportUkrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week.
Ukrainian media reporting that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike. South Korea’s defense minister considered North Korean participation highly likely but unconfirmed.
Open source reportZelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants.
Zelensky claimed to possess evidence that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine’s three nuclear plants.
Open source report“Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk.”
Geolocated footage showed Russian troops capturing the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk amid continued slow Russian progress in the region.
Open source reportUkraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that shot down 144 Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine launched a large overnight drone attack against Moscow and that Russia closed three of the city’s four airports while claiming to have downed 144 Ukrainian drones. Ukraine reported a Russian drone attack against Kyiv.
Open source report“Ukraine accused Russia of executing three Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) as they sought to surrender in Donetsk.”
Ukraine accused Russian troops of executing three Ukrainian prisoners of war as they attempted to surrender in Donetsk. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office was investigating 54 prisoner-execution cases from the war.
Open source report“The enemy’s goal was to make us nervous and worry and to transfer troops from one sector to another and stop our offensive in key areas, primarily in the Donbas. Did it work or no? No.”
Vladimir Putin said Russia’s eastern Ukraine offensive remained its first-priority goal and that Ukraine’s Kursk operation had not forced the major Russian redeployment Kyiv sought.
Open source reportSome critics are complaining about Pres. Zelensky's cabinet reshuffle. They accuse Zelensky of trying to consolidate power by stacking key posts with close allies who will rubber-stamp his decisions. Ukraine's Parliament is expected to approve his shakeup anyway.
Critics view President Volodymyr Zelensky’s cabinet changes as an attempt to place close allies in key positions. Ukraine’s parliament will approve the reshuffle.
Open source reportForeign Minister Kuleba resigned as part of Pres. Zelensky's reshuffle to "strengthen some areas in the government" ahead of "an extremely important autumn."
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba resigned as part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government reshuffle. Andriy Sybiha is a rumored successor, not a confirmed appointment.
Open source reportMore Russian missiles struck the city of Lviv on the Polish border overnight, killing at least seven.
Additional Russian missiles struck Lviv overnight and killed at least seven people.
Open source reportRussia targeted a Ukrainian military academy and nearby hospital in Poltava, killing at least 51 people - including many cadets.
Russia struck a Ukrainian military academy and a nearby hospital in Poltava, killing at least 51 people, including cadets. The missiles left only minutes between air-raid warnings and impact.
Open source reportUkraine used F-16s to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles on Monday, marking the first aerial kills by the new (to Ukraine) jets.
Ukrainian F-16s intercepted incoming Russian cruise missiles, marking the aircraft’s first aerial kills in Ukrainian service. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway pledged 85 aircraft in total, with only a few delivered.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky said he was open to discussing an armistice - first with Pres. Biden and VP Harris, and then with Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed willingness to discuss an armistice first with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, and subsequently with Russia.
Open source reportA Russian Iskander-M missile struck a hotel in Donetsk housing journalists, killing one British safety advisor for Reuters and injuring six others - including three more foreigners.
A Russian Iskander-M missile struck a hotel housing journalists, killing a British Reuters safety adviser and injuring six people, including three other foreign nationals.
Open source reportRussia launched a massive wave of drone attacks on Kyiv and northwestern Ukraine this morning, targeting infrastructure.
Russian drones attacked Kyiv and northwestern Ukraine, damaging at least one building in Lutsk and causing widespread electricity and water outages in several areas while air defenses were active.
Open source reportUkraine traded 115 of the Russian prisoners it took in Kursk for 115 Ukrainian prisoners of war.
The exchange is the first since Ukraine began its Kursk incursion. A Washington Post analysis estimating that Ukraine held at least 132 additional Russian prisoners captured in Kursk, many inexperienced conscripts.
Open source reportRussia still has the upper hand in Pokrovsk, for example, and Ukrainian troops there just withdrew to avoid being encircled.
Russia retained the upper hand near Pokrovsk and that Ukrainian troops withdrew to avoid encirclement.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Western governments to permit broader use of supplied weapons inside Russia. Few restrictions remain after policy changes earlier in 2024.
Open source reportUkraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer.
Ukraine received its first F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands. The number delivered in the initial transfer was unclear.
Open source reportHungary's Viktor Orban retroactively announced that he had met with Russia's Pres. Putin in Moscow and China's Pres. Xi in Beijing following his surprise talks with Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in Kyiv.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg characterized Orbán’s Moscow visit as unrepresentative of NATO’s position.
Open source reportRussia suffered an average of 1,000 casualties (killed or wounded) per day in May... Russia is also recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers per month.
According to NATO and Western officials, an estimate that Russia averaged 1,000 personnel killed or wounded per day in May. Monthly recruitment of 25,000–30,000 soldiers; this is keeping Russian force strength in Ukraine roughly flat. Russia is drawing on mercenaries formerly deployed in Africa and using substantial financial incentives.
Open source reportRussian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday.
Russian authorities blamed the United States for supplying ATACMS missiles used by Ukraine in a strike that killed at least four civilians. Ukraine targeted military sites and that interception over a crowded beach caused fragments to fall on civilians.
Open source reportUkraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies.
Ukraine plans to sell around 20 state-owned companies, including Kyiv’s Hotel Ukraine and unspecified mining and chemical businesses, to generate budget revenue.
Open source reportUkraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild.
Approximately $50 billion would cover only part of Ukraine’s eventual reconstruction requirements.
Open source reportG7 leaders are close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds.
G7 leaders were close to a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion for reconstruction, with repayment funded over time by interest from frozen Russian assets.
Open source reportThe U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks.
The United States will provide Ukraine with a second Patriot missile system. The system will come from Poland after the U.S. forces it currently protects rotate home.
Open source reportUkraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight.
Ukraine intercepted 29 of 30 missiles and drones launched by Russia overnight. The performance comes from replenished air-defense stocks; President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that additional Western supplies could sustain similar results.
Open source reportan investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023.
A BBC Russia and Mediazona investigation estimating that more than 19,500 Wagner personnel died between January 2022 and August 2023 during the battle for Bakhmut. More than 17,000 were former prisoners pardoned in exchange for fighting.
Open source reportI highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine.
The risk of a wider war makes direct Russian strikes on German, American or British territory unlikely; Moscow would instead target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine.
Open source reportOn Friday, the Biden administration said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Later that day, Ukraine did just that: it used HIMARS launchers to target Belgorod Friday night, and may have also used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 yesterday.
The Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia. Ukraine used HIMARS near Belgorod and may have used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 system.
Open source reportRussia's offensive in northern Ukraine has slowed down, and Ukrainian forces are holding the Russians back between Kharkiv and the border.
Russian offensive operations in northern Ukraine had slowed and Ukrainian forces were holding positions between Kharkiv and the border.
Open source reportUkraine implemented nationwide rolling blackouts for the first time this year to conserve precious power supplies, which have been constrained by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
Ukraine introduced its first nationwide rolling blackouts of the year to conserve electricity after Russian attacks constrained power supplies.
Open source reportSatellite images showed at least three destroyed Russian jets and significant damage to buildings, including a power substation.
Two days of Ukrainian drone strikes on Sevastopol destroyed at least three Russian jets and damaged buildings and a power substation, citing unspecified satellite imagery.
Open source reportDeploying U.S. or NATO troops to Ukraine would not only put NATO trainers at risk on the battlefields; it would also raise the risk of turning Russia's war on Ukraine into a broader Russia vs. NATO war.
Deploying U.S. or NATO trainers in Ukraine would expose them to battlefield danger and increase the risk of a direct Russia-NATO conflict.
Open source reportRussia's rapid recent advances have Ukraine and its allies worried
Ukraine is struggling to repel recent Russian advances in the north and that Kyiv and its allies are increasingly concerned.
Open source reportThe NYT speculated that Russia's real goal in the north could be to draw Ukraine's forces away from other fronts to reinforce Kharkiv
The post recounts New York Times speculation that Russia could be seeking to draw Ukrainian units toward Kharkiv, thinning other sectors ahead of a possible subsequent offensive.
Open source reportAnalysts are worried about Russia's rapid recent advances along multiple fronts in Ukraine - including two lines of attack in the north near Kharkiv.
Russia was advancing along multiple Ukrainian fronts, including two northern approaches near Kharkiv, and that President Zelensky postponed foreign trips to focus on the incursions.
Open source reportZelensky pleaded with Blinken for more air defenses - "two Patriots for Kharkiv" - to help stop Russian advances in the north.
Zelensky asked Blinken for two Patriot air-defense systems to help counter Russian advances in northern Ukraine.
Open source reportSecState Blinken is on a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Pres. Zelensky yesterday to reassure him of continued U.S. support
Secretary of State Antony Blinken met President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv to reassure him of continued U.S. support following delays in approving military assistance.
Open source reportNew data showed Black Sea grain and oilseed shipments have rebounded to pre-war levels.
New data show Black Sea grain and oilseed shipments have rebounded to prewar levels.
Open source reportUkrainian defensive lines seem to be holding, although some Ukrainian commanders are blaming others: one wrote on Facebook that "the first line of fortifications and mines just didn’t exist."
Ukrainian defensive lines appear to be holding, while citing an unnamed commander’s allegation that the first line of fortifications and mines did not exist.
Open source reportRussia launched a rapid new offensive into northeast Ukraine (near Kharkiv) on Friday, and Ukraine's top military commander, Gen. Syrsky, acknowledged the situation there "significantly worsened" over the weekend.
Russia began a rapid offensive into northeastern Ukraine; Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky as acknowledging that the situation had significantly worsened. Claims about unusually rapid territorial gains are attributed only to unspecified local reports.
Open source reportRussia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine early this morning...Ukraine said it intercepted 39 of 55 Russian missiles and 20 of 21 drones.
Russia launched 55 missiles and 21 drones at energy infrastructure, with Ukraine claiming interception of 39 missiles and 20 drones.
Open source reportUkraine's security services said they had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Pres. Zelensky and other military and political figures in Kyiv, and arrested two Ukrainian colonels
Ukrainian security services arrested two Ukrainian colonels accused of collaborating with Russian intelligence in a network seeking to capture and kill President Volodymyr Zelensky and target other officials. It also repeats Zelensky’s claim that he knew of at least 10 earlier attempts on his life.
Open source reportthese exercises seem like provocative bluster in reaction to recent escalating rhetoric from Western leaders like France's Pres. Macron... and top UK diplomat David Cameron
The exercises are bluster responding to statements by French President Emmanuel Macron about possible troop deployment and by UK diplomat David Cameron about Ukrainian strikes inside Russia using British weapons.
Open source reportRussia said it would hold new military exercises near Ukraine to practice for the possible future use of "tactical" battlefield nuclear weapons.
Russia said it would conduct military exercises near Ukraine to practice preparations for the possible future use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons.
Open source reportThe U.S. accused Russia of using the chemical choking agent chloropicrin on the battlefield in Ukraine, which would be a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia called the allegations "baseless."
The United States accused Russia of using the choking agent chloropicrin in Ukraine in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia rejected the allegation as baseless.
Open source reportRussian investigators detained former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes "on a particularly large scale" in connection with construction projects he managed in Mariupol, Ukraine.
Russian investigators detained Timur Ivanov on suspicion of large-scale bribery connected to construction projects in Mariupol. Speculation that a more serious allegation such as treason could be involved, while also saying the Kremlin denied that claim.
Open source reportPres. Biden promised Pres. Zelensky that the U.S. weapons funded in the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan support bill the Senate approved late last night will arrive "quickly."
President Biden told President Zelensky that U.S. weapons financed through the Senate-approved Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan support package would arrive quickly. Ukrainian military setbacks come from delays in U.S. funding.
Open source reportRussia launched aroud 130 Shahed drones, 80 missiles, and 700 guided bombs at Ukraine in the last week alone - per Pres. Zelensky
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, a claim that Russia launched about 130 Shahed drones, 80 missiles and 700 guided bombs against Ukraine during the preceding week. Some Ukrainians felt abandoned after Western forces directly helped defend Israel.
Open source reportThe International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible.
According to the IAEA, a report that drone attacks damaged a reactor and killed one person at the Russian-controlled plant. Russia blamed Ukraine, while Ukraine denied involvement and suggested Russian responsibility.
Open source reportAnalysts noted that the high-bank-for-buck converted drone is extremely scalable, so we could see Ukraine use more of them in the near future.
Analysts considered the converted-aircraft concept cost-effective and scalable, creating the possibility that Ukraine could use more such systems.
Open source reportPres. Zelensky finally gave in and signed a bill lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25.
Zelensky signed legislation reducing the draft age from 27 to 25. The measure could support recruitment and rotation of troops from the front lines amid concern about a possible Russian offensive.
Open source report