Conflict diplomacy, U.S. strikes and political unrest

Off Leash update 17 March

COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is St. Patrick's Day, commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, the arrival of Christianity to Ireland, and – in the U.S. - beer ☘️ •March Madness starts this week and culminates in NCAA title games April 6 (women) and 7 (men). Last year was the first year the women's final drew more viewers than the men's game. •Both DRC and the M23 confirmed that their delegates are in Luanda for Angola-mediated peace talks due to start tomorrow...maybe (more on that below). •Thursday is the vernal equinox, which marks the start of spring in the northern hemisphere - and Nowruz, or new year, in Iran.

COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,682/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $36,170/ton •Copper: $9,781/ton •Gold: $2,997/toz [Gold prices surpassed $3,000/toz for the first time last week on higher demand due to expected rate cuts and concerns that tariffs will slow global growth] •Lead: $2,069/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.07/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,973/ton

DRC •Angola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea. The M23 even accused DRC of escalating its airstrikes on Rwandan and M23 positions today. •Optimism for tomorrow's summit is low. •Separately, Rwanda and Belgium mutually severed diplomatic ties over Rwanda's role in the ongoing conflict (which Rwanda implausibly denies).

UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO.

GAZA •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for abruptly firing Shin Bet director Rohen Bar, who is reportedly investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for wrongdoing. Netanyahu's critics say he's seeking to expand his control within the government.

YEMEN •Two weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses. •Iran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted.

SERBIA •Over 100,000 Serbians - and perhaps far more - protested against Pres. Aleksandar Vucic on Saturday in what some described as the largest demonstrations in Serbia's history (Vucic described it as a "large protest with enormous negative energy toward the authorities.") •Demonstrators are frustrated with the lack of government accountability over a train station collapse last November. Vucic said his government "understood the message and we will have to change ourselves," but he hasn't proposed any meaningful changes since the protests began. •Media reports accused Belgrade police of using a banned "sonic weapon" to disperse protesters, but Vucic denied the allegations as "a vile lie," saying he'd heard the weapon's sound "abroad" and "that sound was not heard on the streets of Belgrade on Saturday night."

VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump invoked part of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to deport 261 alleged gang members - including 238 from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and 23 from the multinational MS-13 gang - to El Salvador. A U.S. court order blocked some of the deportations, but only after they'd already taken place: El Salvador's Pres. Bukele tweeted, "Oopsie... Too late." EPIC!