Off Leash Intel · loading
5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 11 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Trump vowed to use frozen Iranian assets to compensate for damage to ships and cargo caused by Iranian strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. A warning against such confiscation comes from Iran’s foreign minister.
Unverified development · updated through
Trump vowed to use frozen Iranian assets to compensate for damage to ships and cargo caused by Iranian strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. A warning against such confiscation comes from Iran’s foreign minister.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
President Trump dossier
7 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine
Presidents Trump and Putin planned a phone call concerning Trump’s ceasefire proposal. Putin is unenthusiastic; he wants guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 24 July 2026 SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal announced Wednesday may fall apart before its Congressional critics even have a chance to oppose it. Less than 24 hours after it was signed, Pres. Trump added a new condition requiring Saudi to join the Abraham Accords - and thus normalize relations with Israel - in exchange for U.S. permission and help building a civilian nuclear program. •Diplomatic recognition of Israel has been a non-starter for Saudi's Crown Prince MBS since Israel began its war in Gaza, although MBS was cautiously open to the idea pre-2022. If Trump doesn't walk back his new condition, MBS will certainly back out of this week's deal, which was over 20 years in the making. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis seem to be selectively enforcing the blockade they announced on Saudi Arabian exports earlier this week. •They struck two Saudi tankers yesterday, but allowed two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to pass through Bab al Mandeb - though those were loaded at Saudi's Yanbu port before the Houthis announced their blockade. Several more Chinese tankers are now loading Saudi oil at Yanbu, and analysts are watching to see how the Houthis treat them. •On the one hand, China is the Houthis' second-greatest benefactor (after Iran) and supplies the Houthis with key military kit like drone components, so the Houthis will hesitate to bite the hand that feeds them. That's what happened in 2023-5, when the Houthis attacked U.S.- and Israel-linked vessels in solidarity with Hamas, but spared Chinese ships. But on the other hand, the Houthis are - as one analyst pointed out - "quite mercurial and there is no complete clarity on what the blockade means." IRAN •Pres. Trump antagonized Iran by vowing to use frozen Iranian funds - which Tehran has desperately sought to unfreeze to pay for post-war reconstruction - to pay for damage Iran's strikes in the Strait of Hormuz cause to ships and cargo. •Trump called it "the fair and equitable thing to do," while Iran's Foreign Minister said it sent an "incendiary precedent" and issued a rival threat: "Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful." •Separately, Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi delivered a new U.S. ceasefire proposal to Iran's leaders, who rejected it immediately. It was probably not a serious proposal, anyway: it's hard to imagine Pres. Trump would extend a real olive branch after bombing Iran nightly for nearly a fortnight and weighing whether to launch the "largest ever" U.S. military strike on Iran. •It was reportedly another temporary ceasefire that ignored the most prescient question of who keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 May 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Yesterday, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day, which commemorates fallen soldiers (as opposed to Veterans' Day, which celebrates all who have served). •Tomorrow is Eid al Adha, which marks the end of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Despite the war and Iran's strikes on regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, around 1.7 million Muslims took part in this year's pilgrimage. •U.S. SecState Rubio will meet with his counterparts from the other three Quad countries - Australia, India, and Japan - for talks in Delhi today. One of their chief concerns will be finding ways to counter China's growing geopolitical and economic heft. •Paris Saint-Germain plays Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final in Budapest on Saturday. •Colombia votes for president on Sunday. Far-left candidate Iván Cepeda is likely to win the most votes - but not a majority - in Sunday's first round, which will pit him against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right rival Paloma Valencia in a run-off on June 21. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,650/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,092/ton •Bitcoin: $77,169 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,668/ton •Ethereum: $2,120 •Gold: $4,511/toz •Lead: $2,012/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $92.46/barrel •Zinc: $3,543/ton IRAN •The U.S. struck several missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran in what CENTCOM called an act of self-defense "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." •Despite the fresh U.S. strikes, the temporary ceasefire is still largely holding up as negotiators continue to make slow progress towards a permanent peace deal during mediated talks in Doha. •Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that a "framework" for a truce had been agreed, but it's unlikely to lead to a conclusive, war-ending agreement. As The Economist quipped: "At best...it will be a deal to keep talking about a final deal." ISRAEL •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump demanded that several more Middle Eastern countries - namely, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar - sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of a future deal to end the Iran war. •Critics complained that Trump's new demand adds further complexity to deliberations that are already dauntingly complicated. Plus, several of the countries in question have steadfastly refused to cave to past U.S. pressure to join the pact and are unlikely to suddenly reconsider now. Pakistan and Saudi, in particular, have long maintained that they would only consider joining the Accords and normalizing relations with Israel after Palestine has a clear path to statehood. LEBANON •Three senior Iranian officials told the NYT that the latest Iran ceasefire proposal would also end Israel's war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. •However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu struck a very different tone in a video statement announcing an escalation in Israel's war against Hezbollah: "We are not removing our foot from the pedal. On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more." SUDAN •Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. •It's been well documented that Colombian fighters are backing the RSF, but this is the first compelling claim that the UAE hosted Colombians for training at an Emirati military base before deploying them to Sudan. •The UAE denied the latest accusations - just as it has denied backing the RSF in the first place. GUINEA •Guinea - which is by far the world's largest bauxite producer - announced plans to introduce bauxite export controls next month. •The new curbs will disproportionately affect China, which receives almost three-quarters of Guinea's exported bauxite and processes it into alumina and aluminum.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October GAZA AND THE WEST BANK •Israel accused Hamas of violating their ceasefire agreement by failing to return hostage remains as quickly as possible and by firing on Israeli forces, reportedly killing one reservist. •Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered "forceful strikes" that killed 104 Gazans in retaliation. •Hamas denied firing at Israeli troops and said it was committed to keeping the ceasefire, but threatened to delay the next return of hostage remains in response to what it deemed violations by Israel. •Pres. Trump and Vice Pres. Vance both expressed confidence that Trump's ceasefire will hold - despite what Vance called "little skirmishes here and there" - and Israel declared the ceasefire back on at 10 am local time today. •Separately, Israel also carried out its first airstrike on the West Bank since February yesterday, targeting Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants over PIJ's alliance with Hamas. JAMAICA •Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as the strongest storm the island nation has ever recorded, but weakened to a Category 3 storm before reaching Cuba early today. •Climatologists say the storm strengthened ahead of its Jamaica landfall because it drew heat energy from water temperatures 2.5°F (1.4°C) above the seasonal average. BRAZIL •Brazilian police mounted a massive, 2,500-officer operation against the Comando Vermelho (Red Command) drug cartel in Rio de Janeiro, killing at least 60 alleged criminals in the ensuing firefight. •Rio is hastily trying to clean up crime before its guests arrive for the COP30 climate conference, which starts Nov. 10. •Police carried out similar anti-gang operations ahead of other major events in Rio - like the 2016 Olympics, the 2024 G20 summit, and July's BRICS meetings - but this was by far their deadliest cleanup campaign yet. •Rights groups criticized police for using heavy-handed tactics in their raids and called for an investigation, but police chiefs maintained that they needed to use overwhelming force against well-armed gangsters who chased them with weaponized drones. CARTELS •The U.S. military struck four more alleged drug trafficking boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean yesterday, killing 14 and leaving one survivor (who was apparently rescued by the Mexican Navy). •SecDef Hegseth wrote that all four struck boats "were known by our intelligence apparatus, transiting along known narco-trafficking routes, and carrying narcotics" - but that won't be good enough proof for critics of the ongoing anti-cartel operations, who point out that the extrajudicial strikes are probably illegal.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July UKRAINE •The Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9. •In lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22. •Even Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going." RUSSIA •Separately, a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake - perhaps the sixth-largest ever recorded - struck off the coast of eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula early this morning, triggering a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean and warnings and alerts spanning the entire West Coast of the U.S. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •After much prodding from British citizens and MPs appalled by images of starving children in Gaza, Prime Minister Starmer announced that the UK will follow France's lead and recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meets several weighty conditions before then. •In order to avoid the UK recognizing Palestinian statehood in September, Israel must first agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. It must also pledge not to annex the occupied West Bank, and it must commit to a credible process that will eventually grant Palestinian statehood anyway. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's furious reaction declaring that Starmer's ultimatum "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism" suggests Israel is highly unlikely to meet any of Starmer's conditions by September. TRADE •The EU's largest economies are less enthusiastic than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was about the trade deal von der Leyen recently signed with Pres. Trump on behalf of the bloc. •Germany's Chancellor Merz said the deal would "substantially damage" the German economy, and France's Prime Minister Bayrou called its signing a "dark day" for the EU. •Both Merz and Bayrou likely lament the 15% tariff the deal locks in for most goods the EU exports to the U.S. However, pragmatists observe that the alternative was not a continuation of today's lower tariff rates but rather levies far above 15% and a possible trade war. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng talked trade for ten hours over the course of Monday and Tuesday, but only agreed to continue discussions and perhaps - if Pres. Trump approves it - extend the current bilateral tariff pause another 90 days from its expiration date in mid-August. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India said its forces had finally - over 100 days later - killed three of the terrorists involved the April attack in Kashmir that sparked a brief skirmish with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi's government has faced criticism for taking so long to identify and pursue the attackers.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is St. Patrick's Day, commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, the arrival of Christianity to Ireland, and – in the U.S. - beer ☘️ •March Madness starts this week and culminates in NCAA title games April 6 (women) and 7 (men). Last year was the first year the women's final drew more viewers than the men's game. •Both DRC and the M23 confirmed that their delegates are in Luanda for Angola-mediated peace talks due to start tomorrow...maybe (more on that below). •Thursday is the vernal equinox, which marks the start of spring in the northern hemisphere - and Nowruz, or new year, in Iran. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,682/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $36,170/ton •Copper: $9,781/ton •Gold: $2,997/toz [Gold prices surpassed $3,000/toz for the first time last week on higher demand due to expected rate cuts and concerns that tariffs will slow global growth] •Lead: $2,069/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.07/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,973/ton DRC •Angola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea. The M23 even accused DRC of escalating its airstrikes on Rwandan and M23 positions today. •Optimism for tomorrow's summit is low. •Separately, Rwanda and Belgium mutually severed diplomatic ties over Rwanda's role in the ongoing conflict (which Rwanda implausibly denies). UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO. GAZA •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for abruptly firing Shin Bet director Rohen Bar, who is reportedly investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for wrongdoing. Netanyahu's critics say he's seeking to expand his control within the government. YEMEN •Two weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses. •Iran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted. SERBIA •Over 100,000 Serbians - and perhaps far more - protested against Pres. Aleksandar Vucic on Saturday in what some described as the largest demonstrations in Serbia's history (Vucic described it as a "large protest with enormous negative energy toward the authorities.") •Demonstrators are frustrated with the lack of government accountability over a train station collapse last November. Vucic said his government "understood the message and we will have to change ourselves," but he hasn't proposed any meaningful changes since the protests began. •Media reports accused Belgrade police of using a banned "sonic weapon" to disperse protesters, but Vucic denied the allegations as "a vile lie," saying he'd heard the weapon's sound "abroad" and "that sound was not heard on the streets of Belgrade on Saturday night." VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump invoked part of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to deport 261 alleged gang members - including 238 from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and 23 from the multinational MS-13 gang - to El Salvador. A U.S. court order blocked some of the deportations, but only after they'd already taken place: El Salvador's Pres. Bukele tweeted, "Oopsie... Too late." EPIC!
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