Off Leash Intel · loading
3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The United Kingdom will provide military support to Belgium in response to a wave of reported drone incursions into Belgian airspace. It does not identify the drones’ origin or operators.
Developing development · updated through
The United Kingdom will provide military support to Belgium in response to a wave of reported drone incursions into Belgian airspace. It does not identify the drones’ origin or operators.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Belgium dossier
2 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine
Ukrainian F-16s intercepted incoming Russian cruise missiles, marking the aircraft’s first aerial kills in Ukrainian service. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway pledged 85 aircraft in total, with only a few delivered.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash Update 10 Nov 2025 Happy 250th Anniversary to the United States Marine Corps! COMING UP THIS WEEK •COP30 - the UN's climate conference - starts today and runs through Nov. 21. This year's edition will include fewer world leaders than attended past summits. The lackluster turnout is leading some to question the purpose of the summit. •The U.S. celebrates Veterans Day tomorrow, and the American Legion published a list of nationwide deals and discounts veterans can enjoy here: https://t.co/ri80Zt9MMx. •Tomorrow is also Iraq's election. Voter registration figures suggest Iraqis are disillusioned with their politicians, and many Shia will probably join popular cleric Moqtada al Sadr in boycotting the vote. Those who vote are expected to do so along sectarian lines, leaving Iraq's political elite to allocate power amongst themselves. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,848/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $106,245 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,717/ton •Ethereum: $3,604 •Gold: $4,078/toz •Lead: $2,047/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.49/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.22/barrel •Zinc: $3,057/ton VENEZUELA •Numerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - allegedly - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty. •Whether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority. •Separately, Venezuela's army released a series of new patriotic promotional videos over the weekend as part of what some analysts suspect is an effort to motivate soldiers and attract new recruits. •In one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background. Gamers around the world may be worried: astute observers pointed out that the simulators behind Láre bear an uncanny resemblence to FPV Kamikaze Drone, a video game sold on Steam for $3.99. GAZA •Turkey accused Israel of bombing a Turkish hospital in Gaza and issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity." Israel called it a "PR stunt." •While trading diplomatic barbs with Israel, Turkey is apparently constructively helping the U.S. and UAE try to negotiate safe passage for Hamas fighters trapped in tunnels in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza. •Separately, Hamas returned the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who was killed in Gaza in 2014. Goldin was one of the deceased hostages whose release was mandated by the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. DRONES •The UK said it would lend Belgium military support to protect against a wave of drone incursions into Belgian airspace. IRAN •Tehran's water supplies have continued to dwindle through a rain-less autumn, and authorities have started rationing water. •Late last week, Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian - who has been sounding the alarm about Tehran's looming water crisis for months - warned that Tehran residents may need to evacuate if the drought lasts another month. The Ministry of Energy is trying to draw rain using "cloud seeding" first. INDIA •A car bomb killed at least 10 people near one of Delhi's top tourist attractions - the Red Fort - today, leading authorities to impose a high security alert on other tourist and government sites in the capital. •Investigators are treading cautiously and not explicitly calling it a terrorist attack yet - but the fact that India's federal anti-terror investigators are leading the inquiry suggests terrorism is a leading theory.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is St. Patrick's Day, commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, the arrival of Christianity to Ireland, and – in the U.S. - beer ☘️ •March Madness starts this week and culminates in NCAA title games April 6 (women) and 7 (men). Last year was the first year the women's final drew more viewers than the men's game. •Both DRC and the M23 confirmed that their delegates are in Luanda for Angola-mediated peace talks due to start tomorrow...maybe (more on that below). •Thursday is the vernal equinox, which marks the start of spring in the northern hemisphere - and Nowruz, or new year, in Iran. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,682/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $36,170/ton •Copper: $9,781/ton •Gold: $2,997/toz [Gold prices surpassed $3,000/toz for the first time last week on higher demand due to expected rate cuts and concerns that tariffs will slow global growth] •Lead: $2,069/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.07/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,973/ton DRC •Angola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea. The M23 even accused DRC of escalating its airstrikes on Rwandan and M23 positions today. •Optimism for tomorrow's summit is low. •Separately, Rwanda and Belgium mutually severed diplomatic ties over Rwanda's role in the ongoing conflict (which Rwanda implausibly denies). UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO. GAZA •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for abruptly firing Shin Bet director Rohen Bar, who is reportedly investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for wrongdoing. Netanyahu's critics say he's seeking to expand his control within the government. YEMEN •Two weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses. •Iran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted. SERBIA •Over 100,000 Serbians - and perhaps far more - protested against Pres. Aleksandar Vucic on Saturday in what some described as the largest demonstrations in Serbia's history (Vucic described it as a "large protest with enormous negative energy toward the authorities.") •Demonstrators are frustrated with the lack of government accountability over a train station collapse last November. Vucic said his government "understood the message and we will have to change ourselves," but he hasn't proposed any meaningful changes since the protests began. •Media reports accused Belgrade police of using a banned "sonic weapon" to disperse protesters, but Vucic denied the allegations as "a vile lie," saying he'd heard the weapon's sound "abroad" and "that sound was not heard on the streets of Belgrade on Saturday night." VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump invoked part of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to deport 261 alleged gang members - including 238 from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and 23 from the multinational MS-13 gang - to El Salvador. A U.S. court order blocked some of the deportations, but only after they'd already taken place: El Salvador's Pres. Bukele tweeted, "Oopsie... Too late." EPIC!
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Aug Venezuela •One of Venezuela's top election officials, Juan Carlos Delpino, directly discredited Pres. Maduro's account of the vote for the first time this week. •Delpino - who is one of two opposition-aligned members of the five-person National Electoral Council (CNE) responsible for organizing elections and certifying their results - told the NYT that his council "had not received any evidence" that Maduro won a majority of the vote, and lamented that the CNE had "failed the country." He spoke from hiding, fearing for his safety. •His fear is reasonable: Maduro's security forces continue to arrest Venezuelans who dare support the opposition. Perkins Rocha - opposition leader Marina Corina Machado's lawyer and close confidante - was among those arrested this week. •With Diosdado Cabello now appointed Minister for the Interior, Justice, and Peace; we can expect the crackdown to worsen: Cabello has previously said that Machado and opposition president-elect Edmundo Gonzalez should be "behind bars." Israel •Hamas said the 10 Palestinians Israel killed in its West Bank operations Tuesday and Wednesday were among its members. •There's a polio outbreak in Gaza, and the UN hopes to innoculate 640,000 Palestinian children with vaccines to stop the spread of the virus - starting this weekend. •Israel reportedly authorized temporary and localized humanitarian pauses in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate vaccinations, but evacuations, displacement, and ongoing fighting will certainly complicate the process. Yemen •Iran says its Houthi proxies in Yemen have agreed to a truce to let rescuers assess the Sounion oil tanker its missiles damaged and set alight. However, the Houthis say they only agreed to allow a tugboat to come tow the ailing - and possibly leaking - Sounion away. Either way, we'll soon learn how big of an environmental risk the damaged tanker is. Ukraine •Ukraine used F-16s to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles on Monday, marking the first aerial kills by the new (to Ukraine) jets. •Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged a total of 85 F-16s for Ukraine; because only a few of them have arrived so far, Ukraine is only using the few it has against targets like these cruise missiles that can't shoot back. •Separately, Ukrainian drones targeted the Zenit oil depot deep inside Russia's Kirov region, causing two fires. It's the first time Ukraine has struck Kirov, which is 700 miles (1,125 km) inside Russia. Russia •In response to new U.S. sanctions against Russia, Russia permanently banned 92 U.S. citizens - including journalists, lawyers, professors, and business executives - from entering the country. •Among those banned were 14 WSJ employees, including WSJ editor in chief Emma Tucker. Given the 16 months their colleague Evan Gershkovich spent in Russian jail before he was finally released in a swap last month, I doubt anyone from the WSJ was eager to visit Russia anytime soon anyway. Other News •French authorities charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with a slew of crimes related to illegal activity others committed on his platform. He was released on bail of €5 million ($5.5 million) and barred from leaving the country. Free speech advocates and tech companies are preturbed that the creator of an online forum can be held liable for crimes others use it to commit.
Open source report