Off Leash: Battlefield Pressure, Regional Escalation Risks and Strategic Alignments

Off Leash update 17 May

Ukraine •Russia's rapid recent advances have Ukraine and its allies worried, and a senior U.S. military official hinted - for the first time - that NATO will probably eventually send military trainers to Ukraine to support its defense directly: "we'll get there eventually." •Deploying U.S. or NATO troops to Ukraine would not only put NATO trainers at risk on the battlefields; it would also raise the risk of turning Russia's war on Ukraine into a broader Russia vs. NATO war. •Though Ukraine is struggling to repel Russian advances in the north, it carried out two days of successful drone strikes on Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Satellite images showed at least three destroyed Russian jets and significant damage to buildings, including a power substation. Russia •Pres. Putin finished his two-day trip to China with a visit to Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city with strong Russian ties where China carries out some of its most advanced defense research. •Putin's trip seemed to go well, and he'll probably benefit from some of the defense technologies developed at the research centers he visited in Harbin. Pres. Xi even hugged him goodbye in a rare show of affection between the two uncuddly leaders. Gaza •Israel is sending more ground troops to support its invasion of Rafah, which started out as a limited incursion to avoid crossing the "red lines" Pres. Biden set. Even with added troops in Rafah, Israel will still likely stay clear of any real "red lines" that could jeopardize U.S. weapons shipments. •Aid shipments began arriving in Gaza via the new, U.S.-built pier that opened this week. CentCom was careful to clarify that no U.S. troops went ashore in Gaza during or after the construction of the pier. •The Arab League met in Manama and called for a return to pre-1967 borders and the deployment of a new UN peacekeeping force in "the occupied Palestinian territories" (Gaza and the West Bank). •A UN spokesman responded that it would be premature to send peacekeepers to Gaza now: "there first has to be a peace to keep." North Korea •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, denied that North Korea has supplied any weapons to Russia, calling suggestions otherwise "the most absurd paradox." •The U.S. and South Korea disagree: they believe North Korea has sent Russia artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons; and some analysts think North Korea's recent short-range missile tests were demonstrations of weapons it planned to sell to Russia. Mozambique •Human Rights Watch reported that some of the perpetrators of Al Shabaab's May 10 attack in Cabo Delgado were child soldiers as young as 13, suggesting the Islamic State-aligned terrorist group (which is unrelated to Somalia's Al Shabaab except in name and violent inclination) is getting desperate for new recruits. •It's a war crime to recruit and employ child soldiers - but groups like Al Shabaab aren't exactly upstanding defenders of the UN Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Other News •Billionaire data privacy defender Frank McCourt said he was amassing a group of investors to offer to buy TikTok from its Chinese parent company. •McCourt sees the acquisition as an opportunity to "create the alternative to the current internet, which has been colonized by large platforms," and envisions a new scenario where users can "control their identity, [and] own and control their data." Note: he should have just invested in https://t.co/fvHOU3SWuy