Strikes on Kyiv, Nord Stream charges, Venezuela disaster fallout, Iran diplomacy and Damascus bombing

Off Leash update 3 July 2026

UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Russia pummeled Kyiv with 74 ballistic missiles and 496 drones overnight, killing at least 27 in what Kyiv mayor (and former heavyweight boxing champion) Vitaly Klitschko called the "most massive attack" on the capital yet, in terms of the number of weapons deployed and locations struck. •The Economist hypothesized that Russia's attack "was probably retribution for Ukrainian drone attacks in June that disabled Moscow’s oil refinery," leaving the Kremlin "angry and frustrated." •Meanwhile, Russian legislator Nina Ostanina boldly accused Pres. Putin's government of concealing the extent of the fuel crisis resulting from Ukraine's long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. •Ostanina claimed that almost one-third of Russia's refineries are now offline, which sounds far more dire than Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's acknowledgement that "certain gas stations" were a little low on fuel. (Ostanina's rare openness wasn't motivated by a desire to spread the truth because it's the right thing to do; rather, she's concerned that voters will punish elected officials like her for misleading them once they learn the truth.)

NORDSTREAM •This week, German prosecutors indicted Ukrainian army officer Serhiy Kuznietsov on war crimes charges related to the 2022 sabotage attack on the Baltic Nord Stream pipeline that was set to supply Russian gas to Germany. •In the course of their indictment, prosecutors alleged that Ukrainian "state authorities" ordered the attack and Kuznietsov merely carried it out. •Kyiv certainly had a motive to cut off a key source of its enemy's future war funding. It also had a reason to conceal its state involvement: Germany was and is one of Ukraine's strongest supporters in Europe, and Kyiv wouldn't have wanted to risk antagonizing its backers in Berlin with an attack on a key potential source of German energy. With these new charges, Kyiv will have some explaining to do.

VENEZUELA •Venezuela now estimates that last week's twin earthquakes killed over 2,500 people; thousands are still missing. •Emerging reports suggest that interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government has severely botched its response to the disaster. •Residents of the hardest-hit state, La Guaira, say they got no government help until well after the crucial first 48 hours after the tremors. When government responders finally arrived, they did little to help. Residents criticized soldiers for standing around while volunteers dug through rubble, and eyewitnesses reported that four policemen sent into a ruined building to rescue a child came out with bags of U.S. dollar bills instead of a survivor. (Rodriguez implausibly claims that all such negative reports are misinformed and politically motivated.) •The botched response is likely to fuel public resentment of Rodriguez and her feckless government - although, to be fair, Rodriguez inherited a chronically corrupt and inept government and lacked the resources with which to turn it around in the six months she's been in charge. •Many - including The Economist - are calling for the U.S. government, which installed Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor, to step in and help.

IRAN •U.S. intelligence suggested that Israel may have been planning to assassinate several of Iran's more pragmatic leaders - including foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - this spring as U.S.-Iran peace talks got underway. •The U.S. reportedly asked Israel to refrain from targeting Araghchi or Ghalibaf - both of whom were (and are) deeply involved in nascent negotiations that would certainly have been derailed if one or both of them were taken out. •Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. negotiators dangled an offer to unfreeze some of the $100 billion in Iranian funds overseas banks in exchange for Iran's agreement to abandon its plans to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. •The offer wasn't rich enough for Tehran, whose negotiators rejected it. Iran's leaders are increasingly convinced that they have the right to profit from traffic through the Strait and are entitled to their frozen funds anyway under the terms of the memorandum of understanding they signed with the U.S.

SYRIA •A bombing killed at least nine people at a crowded cafe in central Damascus today. •Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah - a little-known jihadist group - claimed the blast, but Syrian authorities think Islamic State was actually responsible for it.