Ukraine air-defense debate and four other geopolitical developments

Off leash update 17 sept UKRAINE •Poland floated the idea of making the skies over Ukraine a no-fly zone. •It's an idea first raised by Pres. Zelensky early in the war: Zelensky reasoned that if the skies over his country were closed to air traffic, then he could justifiably ask NATO allies to shoot down Russian intruders who defied the ban. •Back then, NATO leaders rejected the idea out of fear of being drawn into a military conflict with Russia. Now, Poland's foreign minister, for one, thinks that "If Ukraine were to ask us” to shoot down drones over its territory, it will be advantageous for us." •The U.S. will likely remain opposed to the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine for the same reasons as before.

RUSSIA •A new study by war crimes investigators at Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab found that Russia's quiet forced re-education (read: indoctrination) programs for Ukrainian children from occupied territories are much larger than initially understood. •The study documented at least 210 Russian sites holding Ukrainian children (vs. around half that number in initial estimates). Some of those sites are military training schools; others are education camps with a severe pro-Russian nationalist slant. •The Geneva Convention prohibits military recruitment in occupied territories, but Russia argues that the prohibition doesn't apply here because it has annexed - not merely occupied - the Ukrainian areas in question.

CHINA •Chinese and Philippine boats had another confrontation at sea near the disputed Scarborough Shoal yesterday. •Last week, China approved plans to turn the waters around the shoal into a national nature reserve to preserve its (disputed) right to the area, which lies well within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (as well as China's nine-dash line). This was the first run-in since those plans were approved. •The Philippines accused China of "aggressive" actions against its boats that were resupplying fishermen; China blamed the Philippines for the spat, which caused a collision between two boats.

AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government severed fiber-optic internet service to Balkh province "for the prevention of vices." Balkh residents can still get their vices on mobile internet, which remains up. •The Taliban's critics point out that cutting off home internet will disporportionately affect women and girls - many of whom started reading and studying online at home after the Taliban closed their schools and banned them from working.

SOUTH SUDAN •Following two years of independent investigations, the UN Commission on Human Rights issued its verdict on South Sudan's festering political feud between Pres. Kiir and his First Vice President, Riek Machar. •The UN commission found both sides at fault for "the plundering of a nation," and blamed the leadership's infighting and corruption for "driving hunger, collapsing health systems, and causing preventable deaths, as well as fuelling deadly armed conflict over resources." •The commission's report cited one particularly damning example: South Sudan's government has collected $25.2 billion in oil revenues since 2011, yet has spent just a rounding error of that on essential services. As a result, "three-quarters of child deaths are preventable — yet funds go to patronage and private pockets, not medicine or clean water and sanitation."