Off Leash geopolitical update — June 28, 2024

Off Leash update 28 June Iran •Polls opened in Iran's election to choose a successor to Pres. Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month. •Many young Iranians are unenthused about the candidates the conservative clerics approved for them to choose from and plan to sit out the vote. •With support split between three candidates - two conservatives and the sole moderate running - the poll will likely go to a runoff on July 5. Ukraine •NATO and Western officials estimated that Russia suffered an average of 1,000 casualties (killed or wounded) per day in May, after sending wave after wave of infantry troops towards well-defended Ukrainian front lines in the north and east. •The NYT noted that Russia is also recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers per month, though - so its net force strength in Ukraine remains roughly flat. •I'm amazed Russia is still able to recruit so much fresh meat to send into these meat grinder battles. It's drawing heavily on Russian mercenaries previously working in Africa, and also offering handsome (but apparently also sustainable) financial incentives for new joiners. North Korea •State media claimed that North Korea successfully tested a missile payload capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads to separate targets. •The new system - called "multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle" or MIRV, for short - is a significant advance that raises the threat level for North Korea's adversaries: it's much harder to intercept multiple projectiles (including decoys) than it is to target just one midair. China •China expelled two former Defense Ministers - Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe - from the Communist Party for alleged corruption. •Li was removed from his post last October with no public explanation as to why; this is the first official confirmation that his removal - and subsequent disappearance - was related to graft allegations. •State media are now reporting that he "seriously violated" party principles by seeking "personal benefits" from his position and both receiving and paying "huge sums of money" in bribes. Israel and Gaza •The U.S. is preparing to release the big bombs that it temporarily withheld from Israel over concerns they would be used in crowded parts of Rafah. •Despite PM Netanyahu's complaints that the U.S. was withholding arms on a broader scale, these were the only arms withheld - and they'll now be released. [Some other shipments have been delayed due to bureaucratic issues, but Pentagon officials insist those delays weren't intentional or political.] DRC •China's Norin Mining agreed to buy struggling Congolese cobalt miner Chemaf for an undisclosed amount. •Norin plans to invest in developing Chemaf's Etoile Phase 2 and Mutoshi mines, which Chemaf couldn't afford to continue building out because of big debts to its trading partner, Trafigura. •China already controls about 70% of global cobalt processing capacity, so the vertical integration of mining companies will help expand its control of the supply chain. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels improbably claimed to have independently developed a hypersonic missile, the Hadim 2, that they used to target a cargo ship in the Arabian Sea earlier this week. •There were indeed reports of an attempted missile attack that missed its target this week, but no indications that the missile was the solid-fuel hypersonic technology the Houthis claimed it to be. Hypersonic missiles are hard to develop without significant support from a technology partner (say, Iran, for example).