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One consolidated view of the Central Africa theater — every tracked development, actor, and source report, stitched into a single evolving narrative.
Latest assessment
Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain in office continues unresolved.
Assessment development · updated through
Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain in office continues unresolved.
Open source reportGeography
Every mapped development in this theater. Marker precision is disclosed on selection; country and regional centroids show scope, not an exact incident site.
Central Africa theater
51 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Near Goma, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian personnel serving with the Southern African Development Community force fighting M23. It places the attack at the camp where two South African troops were killed in February.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
To me, it seems strange that Tshisekedi's critics would be satisfied with the mere promise of talks while their chief grievance - Tshisekedi's "constitutional coup" to remain in power beyond his term - is still moving forward.
Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain in office continues unresolved.
Open source reportDRC's Pres. Tshisekedi acquiesced to the opposition's demands for an inclusive national dialogue under the oversight of the religious leaders who joined him in the room for his announcement.
President Félix Tshisekedi agreed to an inclusive national dialogue overseen by religious leaders, after which opposition parties canceled a scheduled protest.
Open source reportDRC Mining Week takes place Wednesday through Friday in Lubumbashi.
DRC Mining Week will take place Wednesday through Friday in Lubumbashi.
Open source reportDRC's National Assembly quietly passed a bill that paves the way for a referendum to alter the constitution so Pres. Tshisekedi can run for a third term. Lacking the numbers to block the measure from passing, the opposition boycotted the vote in protest.
The National Assembly passed a bill enabling a referendum that could permit President Félix Tshisekedi to seek a third term. Opposition lawmakers boycotted the vote because they lacked the numbers to block it.
Open source reportIt could be hard to contain in Ituri, where the government has failed to contain an Allied Democratic Forces jihadist insurgency.
Africa CDC declared an Ebola outbreak with 246 reported cases and 65 deaths, mainly in two gold-mining towns. The Allied Democratic Forces insurgency and limited government control could complicate containment.
Open source reportKabila hasn't publically commented yet, but will probably accuse Washington of helping Tshisekedi carry out a vendetta against a political rival.
Kabila will accuse Washington of helping Tshisekedi pursue a political rival.
Open source reportThe U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on former Congolese President Joseph Kabila for his support of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels stoking conflict in eastern DRC.
Washington sanctioned Kabila over support for Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and that President Félix Tshisekedi’s government welcomed the action. Kabila had not publicly responded.
Open source reportDRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes.
The General Inspectorate of Mines announced a $100 million mining guard program targeting 20,000 recruits and eventual deployment across 22 provinces. An initial 2,500 to 3,000 personnel are said to be scheduled for Katanga in December, with U.S. and UAE investment partnerships helping fund the program.
Open source report70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands.
Miners have little leverage against Kinshasa's increasing demands because the DRC accounts for 70% of global cobalt production and alternative supply is generally more expensive.
Open source reportThe new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve.
ARECOMS created a state cobalt reserve and ordered miners to contribute 10% of export volume. Cobalt not exported before quarterly deadlines will be forfeited to the reserve.
Open source reportThe DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets.
Virtus Metals completed a $30 million acquisition of Chemaf with U.S. government support, becoming the DRC’s largest non-Chinese cobalt miner while assuming substantial financing and operating challenges. A DRC-China pact covering geological data and local mineral processing, portraying Kinshasa as hedging between partners.
Open source reportwarning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict.
Kabila's reported warning of the DRC's “Sudanization” is an assessment that the political dispute could become an open conflict. He is back in M23-controlled Goma and did not rule out seeking power again.
Open source reportKabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC.
Former president Joseph Kabila accused President Félix Tshisekedi of targeting him in a drone strike on Goma. The government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion and that he has been convicted of treason and sentenced to death.
Open source reportCongolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children. The M23... disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings"... and claiming that "simply about five" people died.
Congolese authorities attributed at least 200 deaths, including about 70 children, to a landslide at Rubaya. M23 instead blamed government bombing; approximately five deaths.
Open source reportBurundi - which is receiving thousands of fleeing civilians – echoed these reports and blamed Rwanda for the chaos. Its Foreign Minister accused Kigali of "playing a double game. To be negotiating and signing agreements, but in the meantime, it is intensifying attacks on the civilian population with kamikaze drones that kill instinctively.”
Thousands of civilians are entering Burundi; Burundi’s foreign minister accused Rwanda of negotiating publicly while intensifying attacks with explosive drones.
Open source reportAnalysts also spotted signs that the rebels used freshly-supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones, and jammers.
Analysts observed indications that M23 used recently supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones and electronic jammers. No supporting public source was supplied.
Open source reportLocal reports suggest the M23 is bringing in reinforcements from Rwanda, and leveraged the added troop strength to capture the village of Luvungi near the Burundian border.
Local reports that M23 brought in reinforcements from Rwanda and captured Luvungi near the Burundian border, shortly after Rwanda and the DRC reaffirmed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement.
Open source reportFrom what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed... while continuing to punt the thornier issues... further into the future.
The framework adds little to previous commitments and postpones difficult questions involving control of M23-held territory, displaced-person resettlement and humanitarian access. The author considers the two-week negotiating timetable unrealistic.
Open source reportthe new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed… while continuing to punt the thornier issues
The framework adds little to prior commitments and postpones disputes over M23-held territory, displaced-person resettlement, and humanitarian access. Delegates allowed two weeks to address six remaining chapters, a timeline the author considers unrealistic.
Open source reportDRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar.
The DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar, including plans related to prisoner exchanges and a ceasefire oversight body.
Open source reportChina's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine.
Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike cut power to its South Kivu mine. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied the site in May and removed about $70 million in gold and $5 million in equipment and materials for transfer through Rwanda.
Open source reportDRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola.
The DRC declared an Ebola outbreak in Kasai province, with 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases. This is the country’s first outbreak since 2022 and Kasai’s first since 2008; authorities maintain treatments and vaccines for deployment.
Open source reportBoth sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now.
Neither the DRC nor M23 currently has additional motivation to finalize an agreement, notwithstanding their stated commitment to peace talks.
Open source reportSurvivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities.
Survivors reported that some attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents. This is supporting allegations of direct Rwandan involvement, which Rwanda’s president denies.
Open source reportHuman Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025.
Rwanda-backed M23 fighters summarily executed more than 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas during July 2025. M23 disputed that those killed were civilian farmers.
Open source reportThe UN counted at least 319 civilian deaths from M23 massacres between July 9 and 21.
Rwanda-backed M23 escalated violence after a June 19 ceasefire and killed at least 319 civilians in North Kivu from July 9 through July 21. The Congolese and Rwandan presidents remain due to discuss the truce.
Open source reportthe outlook this version seems better, given new U.S. pressure to end fighting and pacify the mineral-rich region for investment.
The prospective agreement more favorably than previous ceasefires, attributing the difference to U.S. pressure and interest in stabilizing the mineral-rich region for investment.
Open source reportRwandan and Congolese technical teams are busy drafting a peace agreement to end fighting in eastern DRC, and Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi are slated to sign the truce next Friday (June 27).
Technical teams were drafting an agreement intended to end fighting in eastern DRC, with Presidents Paul Kagame and Félix Tshisekedi expected to sign it on June 27.
Open source reportRwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias.
Kagame will probably oppose an order to withdraw Rwandan forces, citing his stated concern about Hutu militias. This is the speaker’s interpretation rather than corroborated reporting.
Open source reportA new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire.
A new draft U.S. peace proposal requires Rwanda to withdraw all troops from eastern DRC before a ceasefire.
Open source reportMeanwhile, M23 confirmed yesterday that former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has arrived in Goma.
M23 confirmed that former Congolese president Joseph Kabila had arrived in Goma. His return will increase pressure on President Félix Tshisekedi’s government after authorities lifted Kabila’s immunity and moved toward prosecuting him over support for Rwanda and an coup effort.
Open source reportCiting interviews with former detainees, Amnesty said the violations it documented "may amount to war crimes," and called on "regional and international actors [to] pressure Rwanda to cease its support for M23."
Amnesty International as alleging that M23 tortured, disappeared and killed detainees in Goma and Bukavu. Amnesty said the documented violations may constitute war crimes and called for international pressure on Rwanda to end its support for M23.
Open source reportDRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace.
The DRC and Rwanda expected to submit a draft ceasefire agreement covering eastern DRC on 3 May and that their temporary truce was holding better than earlier peace attempts.
Open source reportDRC's Attorney General asked the Senate to strip ex-President Kabila of his immunity for his involvement in "war crimes, crimes against humanity and massacres of peaceful civilians and military personnel."
The DRC attorney general asked the Senate to remove former president Joseph Kabila’s immunity over war crimes, crimes against humanity, and massacres. Government allegations connecting Kabila to regional incursions, which he denies.
Open source reportNext weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday
12 April is the date of Gabon’s presidential election but supplies no further electoral or security details.
Open source reportRwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu yesterday - despite agreeing to a ceasefire a day earlier.
Rwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu one day after agreeing to a ceasefire.
Open source reportAngola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea.
DRC and M23 delegates were in Luanda for talks mediated by Angola’s president. Both sides disregarded a ceasefire appeal; an M23 allegation of increased DRC airstrikes. Optimism for the talks is low.
Open source reportThe Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution"
SADC will progressively withdraw its regional troops from eastern DRC after at least 15 troops died in recent fighting. Angola will mediate talks between the DRC and M23 the following week.
Open source reportDRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft - though I'm not sure what good that decree will do when Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports.
The DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft. Questions remain about the decree's practical effect and asserts that Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports.
Open source reportDRC surprised the cobalt market with a new four-month ban on exports of the metal - 77% of which is produced in DRC.
The DRC introduced a four-month cobalt export ban intended to support prices after a roughly 25% annual decline amid weak demand and excess supply. The country produces 77% of global cobalt.
Open source reportThe UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow.
The UN Security Council was expected to review an extension of the eastern DRC peacekeeping mandate, while Angola prepared to mediate talks addressing M23 and FDLR withdrawal and disbandment.
Open source reportin just the first three quarters of 2024, CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt.
Chinese mining company CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt from its DRC mines during the first three quarters of 2024, surpassing its annual target of 60,000–70,000 tons.
Open source reportRwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation.
Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured Kalembe in North Kivu, ending a ceasefire reached in August following Angolan mediation.
Open source reportDRC will get its first 100,000 doses of mpox vaccines today, followed by a second shipment on Saturday. The logistics of administering vaccines across the country will be much more complicated than getting doses to Kinshasa: the earliest vaccinations could start is Oct. 8.
The DRC was due to receive an initial 100,000 mpox vaccine doses on September 5, 2024, followed by another shipment on Saturday. Distribution beyond Kinshasa is a logistical challenge; vaccinations could begin no earlier than October 8.
Open source reportInmates at Kinshasa's Makala prison attempted a jailbreak early yesterday under the cover of a large fire, but guards quickly regained control by shooting at least 24 prisoners dead. Another 80 or more died in the stampede or from smoke inhalation.
Inmates attempted to escape Makala prison during a fire and that guards killed at least 24 prisoners. At least 80 more people died in a stampede or from smoke inhalation.
Open source reportThere were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
Reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings, including the Palais de la Nation, while stating that the incident appeared unrelated to the attempt at the Kabila residence.
Open source reportMrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by.
Olive Lembe Kabila that President Félix Tshisekedi’s government relaxed security around the family home to permit construction trucks to pass.
Open source reportdozens of youth - linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me"
Former first lady Olive Lembe Kabila said dozens of youths linked to a militia associated with the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress attempted to enter the family home to physically eliminate her.
Open source reportA DRC military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death for "fleeing the enemy, dissipating munitions of war and violating orders" after running away from a battle with M23 rebels.
A military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death after they fled a battle with M23; the Rwanda-backed rebel group had recently captured several strategic towns.
Open source reportChina's Norin Mining agreed to buy struggling Congolese cobalt miner Chemaf for an undisclosed amount.
China’s Norin Mining agreed to acquire Chemaf for an undisclosed amount and plans to invest in the Etoile Phase 2 and Mutoshi projects. The deal would deepen Chinese control over the cobalt supply chain, citing a claimed 70% share of global processing capacity.
Open source reportA suspected M23 mortar attack killed two South African peacekeepers - and wounded 20 others - near Goma.
A suspected M23 mortar attack near Goma killed two South African peacekeepers and wounded 20 others.
Open source reportDRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments.
The DRC installed a new government, including its first female prime minister, after disagreements over appointments caused months of delay.
Open source reportDeby's critics say the election is a sham designed to legitimize his rule.
Opposition groups assess that the election is a sham intended to legitimize Déby’s rule rather than restore democratic government.
Open source reportChad votes for president today... junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby... is expected to win.
Chad voted for president on May 6, with junta leader Mahamat Idriss Déby expected to win after ten rivals were excluded and security forces killed another prospective rival in February.
Open source reportLocals report that M23 rebels are now advancing toward the region's largest city, Goma.
Local reports that M23 forces were advancing toward Goma, North Kivu’s largest city.
Open source reportM23 rebels captured - or "liberated," in their words - the mining city of Rubaya in North Kivu. Rubaya's coltan mines produce about half of DRC's coltan ore supply, containing about ~20% of the total global supply of the critical smartphone mineral tantalum.
M23 captured Rubaya in North Kivu. Rubaya’s mines account for about half of the DRC’s coltan ore and contain roughly 20% of global tantalum supply.
Open source reportUN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces
UN peacekeepers completed their withdrawal from South Kivu, leaving MONUSCO operating in North Kivu and Ituri, with a full departure from the DRC anticipated by year’s end.
Open source reportMortar fire killed three Tanzanian troops from the South African Development Community force fighting M23 rebels in eastern DRC.
Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian personnel serving with the Southern African Development Community force fighting M23. It places the attack at the camp where two South African troops were killed in February.
Open source report