Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Mahamat Idriss Déby was declared the election winner after rivals were sidelined and that the opposition disputed the result.
Unverified development · updated through
Mahamat Idriss Déby was declared the election winner after rivals were sidelined and that the opposition disputed the result.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mahamat Idriss Déby dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Chad
Chad voted for president on May 6, with junta leader Mahamat Idriss Déby expected to win after ten rivals were excluded and security forces killed another prospective rival in February.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 10 May Gaza Pres. Netanyahu was displeased with Pres. Biden's threat to stop sending certain highly destructive weapons to Israel if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah (even though Israel appears to have toned down its ambitions for Rafah to a smaller-scale operation that probably won't cross Biden's red line) Netanyahu - who must appease hardliners - insisted Israel could (theoretically) carry out the full-scale plan alone: "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone...if necessary we will fight with our fingernails." It probably will not be necessary. Ukraine and Russia Ukrainian drones struck two oil depots and a refinery deep inside Russia over the past 24 hours: one was over 700 miles (1,100 km) inside the border. An oil expert estimated to the NYT that the attacks incapacitated over 10% of Russia's refining capacity - though given the importance of oil to Russia's war funding and foreign earnings, it'll surely be rebuilt quickly. During Pres. Xi's visit to Hungary, nationalist president Orban enthusiastically endorsed China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese plan was released to great fanfare over a year ago (Feb. 2023) but has failed to gain much traction: Hungary is the only European country to endorse it. China's promise to invest in building a BYD electric vehicle production plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orban's support. Separately, EU member states agreed to a plan to use the proceeds (e.g. interest) from Russian central bank funds frozen in European banks to augment Ukraine's defenses and fund post-war reconstruction. Those proceeds are expected to free up about €3 billion ($3.3 billion) per year. Sudan Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur. The report called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan. Sahel Chad's military ruler and incumbent interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a very predictable election after sidelining rivals - lethally in one case. The opposition cried foul.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May Coming Up This Week •China's Pres. Xi is in Europe this week on a trip the NYT says "is likely to be seen as a none-too-subtle effort to divide Western allies." He'll visit France, Serbia (on the 25th anniversary of NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade tomorrow), and Hungary. •Chad votes for president today, making it the first of the West African countries that fell to a coup in recent years to hold an election with the stated intent to return to democracy. [Opposition groups call that a lie, though: junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby - who grabbed power after rebels killed his long-ruling father, Pres. Idriss Deby, in 2021 - is expected to win (it helps that 10 rivals were excluded from the ballot for "irregularities" and security forces shot an 11th dead in February). Deby's critics say the election is a sham designed to legitimize his rule.] •One of the energy industry's biggest tradeshows, the Offshore Technology Conference, begins today and runs through Thursday in Texas. •Russia celebrates its bloody victory over Nazi Germany - known as Victory Day in Russia - on Thursday, May 9 too. •The Eurovision finals are on Saturday, May 11. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,100/ton •Cobalt: $27,830/ton •Copper: $9,910/ton •Gold: $2,318/toz •Lead: $2,215/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.14/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.92/barrel •Zinc: $2,903/ton Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas broke down once again and Hamas negotiators left Cairo. •This time the main point of disagreement wasn't the number of hostages to be released, but rather the duration of a truce: Hamas wants a permanent one, and Israel fears that would let Hamas rebuild its arsenal to stage future attacks. •Israel appears to be preparing to launch its ground offensive in Rafah, and may be further encouraged by a Hamas rocket attack launched from Rafah that killed three Israeli soldiers and led Israel to close the Kerem Shalom border crossing to aid trucks. •Israel called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate certain parts of Rafah ahead of a "limited scope" operation, but it's not clear if this is related to the looming ground invasion of the city. •Separately, Israel's cabinet voted to close local operations for Qatar-based Al Jazeera - which it called "a Hamas mouthpiece" - for at least 45 days. Journalists decried the ban as a violation of their freedom of expression. India •Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals linked to the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver last June. PM Trudeau believes Pres. Modi's government ordered the killing, and he's probably right - though Delhi denies it. Afghanistan •Residents of northeastern Badakhshan province started an unprecedented protest on Friday against the Taliban government, which had begun to destroy local poppy fields. •The Taliban responded with a heavy hand over the weekend, firing at protesters to disperse them and killing at least two in the process. •Taliban officials say the protests are over and Badakhshan is back to normal, but locals remain angry with the government and its nationwide ban on lucrative poppy production. Its heavy-handed response to quell protests probably further fueled their anger. Sahel •Two new Russian transport planes arrived in Niger over the weekend. The first plane preceding them, which arrived April 10th, carried around 100 Russian trainers, so these next two could easily triple the number of Russian advisors working with the junta. •Separately, Nigerien officials ordered several Chinese-owned gold mines to temporarily close after local herders reported that dozens in their flocks had died from suspected groundwater contamination (the region isn't currently suffering from drought or any known animal epidemics).
Open source report