Off Leash Intel · loading
One consolidated view of the West Africa theater — every tracked development, actor, and source report, stitched into a single evolving narrative.
Latest assessment
Russian-Malian holdouts want to retain Anefis as a base for an eventual attempt to retake Kidal from the FLA. This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Assessment development · updated through
Russian-Malian holdouts want to retain Anefis as a base for an eventual attempt to retake Kidal from the FLA. This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Open source reportGeography
Every mapped development in this theater. Marker precision is disclosed on selection; country and regional centroids show scope, not an exact incident site.
West Africa theater
37 mapped developments across 7 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Nigeria
Mass strikes over wages amid high inflation, linking economic pressure partly to President Bola Tinubu’s reforms and the end of fuel subsidies. Protesters disrupted a national grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
That goal will remain elusive as long as the jihadists-rebels have Russian-backed government forces on their back foot.
Russian-Malian holdouts want to retain Anefis as a base for an eventual attempt to retake Kidal from the FLA. This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Open source reportA motley coalition of Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadists and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists attacked a column of over 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers near the northern town of Tabankort yesterday.
JNIM and FLA fighters attacked a column of more than 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers on July 9. The column was moving toward Anefis to reinforce Russian-Malian forces holding a military camp there.
Open source reportGuinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately.
Junta leader Mamady Doumbouya imposed an immediate domestic-processing requirement for gold. The measure may be premature because a planned large refinery is unfinished and existing smaller facilities cannot process the country's claimed annual output of about 90 tons.
Open source reportThe Russians have shifted from northern positions to concentrate on protecting the capital, Bamako, and they're leaving Malian forces to defend the rest of the country while providing only air and intelligence support.
Africa Corps has withdrawn from some northern positions and is concentrating on protecting Bamako after jihadists overran Russian bases in April. Malian forces are assuming greater responsibility elsewhere, with Russian personnel providing air and intelligence support.
Open source reportGuinea's massive Simandou mine almost doubled its iron ore exports in May compared to April, exporting 2.2 million tons through Morebaya port in May against 1.3 million tons in April.
May exports through Morebaya port increased from 1.3 million tons in April to 2.2 million tons. The project sent its first ore to China six months earlier and is rapidly increasing shipments.
Open source reportGuinea - which is by far the world's largest bauxite producer - announced plans to introduce bauxite export controls next month. The new curbs will disproportionately affect China, which receives almost three-quarters of Guinea's exported bauxite and processes it into alumina and aluminum.
Export controls are planned for the following month; China would be disproportionately affected because it receives almost three-quarters of Guinea’s exported bauxite.
Open source reportAirstrikes on a market in Tumfa targeted a terrorist hideout, and - according to Amnesty International - killed over 100 civilians instead... [the military] said it was only targeting militants and has seen no evidence of civilian casualties yet, but promised to investigate.
According to Amnesty International, a claim that airstrikes targeting a militant hideout at a market in Tumfa killed more than 100 civilians. Nigeria’s military reported no evidence of civilian casualties but promised an investigation.
Open source reportGoita's government will struggle to weather the storm, and the odds of a fresh coup are high and rising.
Goita’s government will struggle to withstand the pressure and that the likelihood of another coup is increasing.
Open source reportJNIM and its allies have imposed a blockade of Bamako... Food prices rose 45% in the past few days as militant checkpoints restricted 70% of commercial transit routes into the city.
JNIM and allied militants established checkpoints affecting 70% of commercial transit routes and that food prices rose 45% within several days.
Open source reportJama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) called on "all sincere patriots, without exception" to join its efforts to overthrow Mali's military government under Col. Assimi Goita.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin called on “all sincere patriots” to join efforts to overthrow the government led by Assimi Goita.
Open source reportJNIM claims it has imposed a siege on the capital of Bamako, and at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions have fallen to the FLA
Assimi Goita reappeared publicly after coordinated JNIM and FLA attacks affected senior officials. JNIM's claim of a siege of Bamako, FLA captures of at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions, and a brief ISSP seizure of Menaka before the army retook it.
Open source reportJNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime.
JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front may prefer concessions over toppling and governing Mali. The stated possible objectives are an end to counterinsurgency operations and greater Tuareg autonomy or eventual independence.
Open source reportEmerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands.
emerging reports suggest JNIM controls Kidal and that JNIM-FLA fighters are positioned around Mopti, Sevaré and Gao.
Open source reportTwo other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné died of his wounds.
Coordinated JNIM-FLA attacks killed or injured senior junta figures, including the death of Gen. Modibo Koné. President Assimi Goita was moved to a secure location and had not been heard from, leaving the government’s condition unclear.
Open source reportThe FLA bested Russian mercenaries in Kidal and took control of the city after the Russians agreed to withdraw. The FLA then called on Russia to "reconsider its support for the military junta" and leave Mali altogether
The FLA defeated Russian mercenaries in Kidal, assumed control after they agreed to withdraw and urged Russia to end its support for Mali’s military government.
Open source reportJihadists from the al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces with the Tuareg separatist-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to launch a wave of attacks across Mali that captured several towns and killed the junta's defense minister, Gen. Sadio Camara.
JNIM and the FLA captured several towns, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara and targeted junta leader Assimi Goita, who escaped unharmed. This is their first broad, coordinated offensive despite their divergent political goals.
Open source reportThe ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running.
Benin will vote on April 12, with Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni favored to win after the main opposition candidate was barred from running.
Open source reportGuinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. The three largest opposition parties cried foul... Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance"
President Mamady Doumbouya ordered 40 parties dissolved for legal and fiscal noncompliance. Three major opposition parties objected and opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo called for unspecified “direct resistance.”
Open source reportThe Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said the last 166 hostages abducted in last month's attacks on churches in nearby Kaduna state had finally been freed. CAN didn't say whether ransoms were paid, but they likely were.
The Christian Association of Nigeria said the final 166 hostages taken during the previous month's attacks on churches had been freed. Whether ransom was paid was not disclosed; the post's suggestion that payment was likely is an assessment.
Open source reportJihadists killed over 170 people - mostly Muslims - in Nigeria's western Kwara State. Pres. Bolo Tinubu deployed an army battalion to the region "to checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenceless communities."
Jihadists killed more than 170 people, mostly Muslims, and that President Tinubu deployed an army battalion. Tinubu blamed Boko Haram, while a local lawmaker identified the attackers as Lakurawa as linked to Islamic State.
Open source reportHe'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves.
Doumbouya faces a major challenge in managing Guinea’s bauxite resources. His investment approach is pragmatic but says mining agreements and plans for managing proceeds remain opaque.
Open source reportDoumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule.
Guinea held a presidential vote; coup leader Mamady Doumbouya will win in the first round after the junta excluded several prominent rivals. Those exclusions weaken the election’s legitimacy.
Open source reportTinubu cancelled his plans to attend the G20 summit in South Africa to focus on the school abductions, and he ordered his defense minister to temporarily relocate to Kebbi State to lead the response directly.
President Bola Tinubu canceled plans to attend the G20 summit in South Africa and ordered his defense minister to relocate temporarily to Kebbi State. The measures are an attempt to demonstrate action amid U.S. pressure over Nigerian insecurity.
Open source reportGunmen broke into St. Mary's Catholic boarding school in Papiri, Niger State, overnight and abducted some pupils - though it's unclear how many.
Gunmen entered St. Mary’s Catholic boarding school in Papiri overnight and abducted an undetermined number of pupils. It connects the incident to an earlier school abduction in neighboring Kebbi State.
Open source reportGuinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early.
Guinea-Bissau is due to hold general elections; the vote will be unfair after the Supreme Court ruled the largest party’s presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. It simultaneously asserts that he filed six days early.
Open source reportGuinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early.
Guinea-Bissau will hold general elections on November 23 but characterizes the vote as unfair because the Supreme Court excluded the largest party’s presidential nominee over a registration deadline. The candidate had filed six days early.
Open source reportGuinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, formally filed to contest the December 28 presidential election, reversing a pledge he made upon seizing power in 2021
Junta leader Mamady Doumbouya registered for the December 28 presidential election, reversing his 2021 pledge not to run. A September referendum removed the prohibition on military candidates and introduced restrictions excluding his two closest rivals.
Open source reportEarly results show that Ivory Coast's Pres. Alassane Ouattara won an unconstitutional fourth term on Saturday... Ouattara's government banned both of his serious rivals - as well as over 50 other would've-runs - from contesting the vote.
Early results showed President Alassane Ouattara winning a fourth term; his two principal rivals and more than 50 other prospective candidates were barred from contesting the election. Its characterization of the term as unconstitutional is the speaker’s judgment.
Open source reportthe junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them."
The junta barred Guinea’s three main political parties, including former president Alpha Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People, from participating because they had not met required obligations.
Open source reportit instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power.
The proposed constitution could legitimize the junta’s seizure of power and allow leader Mamady Doumbouya to remain in office.
Open source reportGuinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday.
Guinea was scheduled to hold a referendum on the junta’s new draft constitution on the Sunday following publication.
Open source reportA helicopter crash killed Ghana's Ministers of Defense and Environment - as well as eight other officials - en route to a conference on illegal mining. There are no reports of foul play yet.
A helicopter crash killed Ghana's defense and environment ministers and eight other officials while they were traveling to a conference on illegal mining. There were no reports of foul play at the time of the update.
Open source reportThat's an interesting shift for a junta that ousted the civilian government before it (in part) over overthrown president Conde's attempt to extend his term to five years and run for a third term, for a total of 13 years in power.
The author contrasts the proposal with the junta’s earlier removal of President Alpha Condé, which was partly driven by his effort to seek a third term.
Open source reportGuinea's junta-run parliament proposed that the president's term be extended from five to seven years, and that presidents be allowed to hold office for two terms, or a total of 14 years.
The junta-run parliament proposed extending presidential terms from five to seven years while allowing two terms, for a potential total of 14 years in office.
Open source reportGhana goes to the polls on Saturday. Former president John Dramani Mahama is favored to win a fresh (non-consecutive) term.
Ghana will hold elections on Saturday and identifies former president John Dramani Mahama as the favored candidate for a non-consecutive term.
Open source reportGuinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Guinea’s military government signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia’s Rosatom for a proposed floating nuclear power plant.
Open source reportNigerians are striking en masse to demand higher wages amidst the highest inflation levels in 28 years... Workers protesting the economically painful adjustments Tinubu's reforms have shut down the national security grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Mass strikes over wages amid high inflation, linking economic pressure partly to President Bola Tinubu’s reforms and the end of fuel subsidies. Protesters disrupted a national grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Open source report