Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 1 linked development.
Latest linked intelligence
JNIM and the FLA captured several towns, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara and targeted junta leader Assimi Goita, who escaped unharmed. This is their first broad, coordinated offensive despite their divergent political goals.
Unverified development · updated through
JNIM and the FLA captured several towns, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara and targeted junta leader Assimi Goita, who escaped unharmed. This is their first broad, coordinated offensive despite their divergent political goals.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Bamako, Gao, Kidal, Mopti and Sevare
JNIM and the FLA captured several towns, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara and targeted junta leader Assimi Goita, who escaped unharmed. This is their first broad, coordinated offensive despite their divergent political goals.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 30 April MALI •Mali's junta leader, Assimi Goita, made his first public appearance since Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks that killed or wounded several of Goita's top brass and sent the rest - including Goita - into hiding. •In his address, Goita unconvincingly claimed that "the situation is under control" and vowed to pursue "the complete neutralization of the groups involved." •Local reports suggest the situation is decidedly not under control - at least not under the government's control. •JNIM claims it has imposed a siege on the capital of Bamako, and at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions have fallen to the FLA, which now has its sights on the eponymous regional capitals. •Meanwhile, fighters from JNIM's jihadist rival, Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP), took advantage of the chaos to cross the unguarded border from Niger and briefly capture the northeastern town of Menaka before the army reasserted control. IRAN •Pres. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the war and both Hormuz blockades but postpone nuclear negotiations for later, and instead warned Iran to "get smart soon" amidst stalled talks. •The longer it takes Iran to "get smart," the more it will cost U.S. taxpayers. Yesterday, the Pentagon's comptroller released its first public estimate of the cost of the war to date: $25 billion. •Analysts believe that figure is too low, and the Pentagon acknowledges that it does not include the costs of repairing extensive damage to U.S. bases in the region, which the Pentagon hopes "our partners also might contribute a share for." •The Center for Strategic and International Studies thinks munitions alone have cost the U.S. about $25 billion so far, and other experts estimate the total cost to date at between $40 and $50 billion - up to double the Pentagon's accounting. TERROR FOR HIRE •The Iran-linked group Harakat Ashab al Yamin al Islamia claimed credit for a stabbing attack in the London suburb of Golders Green that wounded two Jewish men. •The group has now claimed over a dozen attacks in Europe - most, like this one, targeting Jewish people and sites. •In all recent cases, the perpetrators appear to be "vandals for hire" recruited on social media - as opposed to Iranian agents or ideologically-motivated sympathizers. [Russia has adopted a similar recruiting playbook for recent foreign sabotage plots in Europe.] •It's a clever operating model. Amateur local recruits are more likely to botch the operation they were hired to carry out, but - as The Economist points out - "even an unsuccessful operation is likely to create fear and confusion." Plus, Iran doesn't have to risk its agents when it hires local sub-contractors to do their job. UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday - their 12th call since Trump's return to office - and afterwards floated the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine to mark Russia's Victory Day on May 9. •Ukraine cautiously welcomed the idea, but said it would need to better understand the details before it could agree to a proposal that Trump and Putin came up with. VENEZUELA •In another sign of the warming relationship between Washington and the new government in Caracas, American Airlines plans to resume daily direct passenger flights between Miami and Caracas today, after a seven-year hiatus. •Tickets for the 76-seat flight sold out quickly, and American plans to add a second daily round-trip between Miami and Caracas from May 21. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir sacked his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official in his latest of many recent cabinet shakeups. •Kiir is rumored to be both ill and sharply distrustful of those around him - many of whom are jostling to replace him when he dies or is ousted, lending credence to his distrust. •But after sacking so many of his deputies over questions of loyalty, he's left with a corrupt and bungling administration that appoints dead men to office and runs the country's only international airport into the ground. MEXICO •U.S. prosecutors indicted the governor of Mexico's Sinaloa state, Rubén Rocha Moya, and nine other current and former Mexican officials on charges related to helping the Sinaloa cartel traffic drugs into the U.S. and avoid arrest for doing so. •Rocha called the charges "entirely false and without foundation" and accused the U.S. of violating Mexico's sovereignty and causing trouble for its ruling leftist Morena party, of which he is a member. [Some would say Rocha is the one causing trouble for Morena by doing things that led to numerous corruption allegations.] •Either way, the episode puts Pres. Sheinbaum in a pickle. She works hard to keep a cordial relationship with Pres. Trump while defending Mexico's sovereignty. •Her deputies have asked their U.S. counterparts for advance notice of charges against sitting Morena officials so they can manage the fallout. It's not clear if they were notified in advance about Rocha's indictment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •The UK's King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a state visit to the U.S. this week. The most consequential part of their tour will be Charles's meeting with Pres. Trump and his address to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday. In both, he'll aim to repair the strained "special relationship" between the U.S. and UK. •The UN begins its five-yearly Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference this week in Geneva, but it's hard to see why they bother: no review since 2010 has led to an agreed outcome. •Friday is May Day or Workers' Day - except in the U.S. and Canada, where workers are celebrated in September. •Central bankers in the U.S., UK, EU, and several other countries will all announce interest rate decisions this week. Investors expect all except perhaps Japan to keep rates flat. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,591/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,645/ton •Bitcoin: $77,629 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,310/ton •Ethereum: $2,319 •Gold: $4,710/toz •Lead: $1,963/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.51/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $96.16/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton MALI •Jihadists from the al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces with the Tuareg separatist-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to launch a wave of attacks across Mali that captured several towns and killed the junta's defense minister, Gen. Sadio Camara. •The FLA reportedly led the attacks on Gao and Kidal in the north - where they seek to carve out an independent ethnic Tuareg state - while JNIM led attacks on Bamako and central cities like Sevare and Mopti. •A separate prong of their joint assault targeted the head of the junta, Gen. Assimi Goita, but Goita was moved to a secure location where he survived unscathed. •The FLA reportedly bested Russian mercenaries in Kidal and took control of the city after the Russians agreed to withdraw. The FLA then called on Russia to "reconsider its support for the military junta" and leave Mali altogether, accusing the Russians of having "contributed to the suffering of the civilian population." •While JNIM and the FLA share a mutual loathing for the junta-led government in Bamako, this is the first time they've teamed up on a vast, coordinated attack or jointly called for Russia's departure. •It's not clear what their end game is or whether they agree on a shared objective. The FLA wants Tuareg independence, while the JNIM wants to become a political entity and impose sharia law throughout Mali. If they do succeed in bringing down the junta-led government they both revile - which seems unlikely - they would be awkward co-rulers. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are in no hurry to start a second round of direct peace talks, but both are reportedly engaging indirectly through Pakistani and Omani mediators. •While they stall, the war is costing the U.S. almost $1 billion per day. •Iran, meanwhile, is devising ways to profit from its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman yesterday to seek Muscat's help in setting up a new tolling system for the Strait. Oman - which prides itself on being a "friend to all" - will likely politely decline to participate. ISRAEL •Former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced plans to merge their parties - Bennett's right-leaning Bennett 2026 and Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid - into a combined entity aptly named Yachad ("together," in Hebrew) to try to unseat Prime Minister Netanyahu in elections expected later this year. •There's a fair chance they could succeed: it was a Bennett-Lapid partnership that temporarily ousted Netanyahu in 2021, and Netanyahu's motley coalition is more fragile now than it was then. DEFENSE SPENDING •The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published its annual report on global defense spending today, with a headline that total worldwide military expenditure grew for an 11th straight year to $2.89 trillion. •Just over half of that - $1.48 trillion - came from the top three spenders: the U.S., China, and Russia. U.S. spending actually declined slightly, but Europe's 14% increase made up for the U.S. decrease. •You can read more here: https://t.co/qWV5aVJhgm. SPORT •Kenyan runner Sabastian Sawe became the first person to run a sub-two hour legal marathon when he set a new world record - 1h59m30s - at yesterday's London Marathon. •It was a fast race: the second-place finisher - Ethiopia's Yomif Kejelcha - also finished in under two hours, and the women's winner - Tigst Assefa, also of Ethiopia - broke her own women's world record with a time of 2h15m41s.
Open source report