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29 developments across 16 briefings for this country.
Latest linked intelligence
Russian-Malian holdouts want to retain Anefis as a base for an eventual attempt to retake Kidal from the FLA. This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Assessment development · updated through
Russian-Malian holdouts want to retain Anefis as a base for an eventual attempt to retake Kidal from the FLA. This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mali dossier
24 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Sahel
That the operation benefits the three military-led Alliance of Sahel States governments, which is receiving Russian support.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
Chronology
That goal will remain elusive as long as the jihadists-rebels have Russian-backed government forces on their back foot.
Russian-Malian holdouts want to retain Anefis as a base for an eventual attempt to retake Kidal from the FLA. This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Open source reportA motley coalition of Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadists and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists attacked a column of over 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers near the northern town of Tabankort yesterday.
JNIM and FLA fighters attacked a column of more than 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers on July 9. The column was moving toward Anefis to reinforce Russian-Malian forces holding a military camp there.
Open source reportThe Russians have shifted from northern positions to concentrate on protecting the capital, Bamako, and they're leaving Malian forces to defend the rest of the country while providing only air and intelligence support.
Africa Corps has withdrawn from some northern positions and is concentrating on protecting Bamako after jihadists overran Russian bases in April. Malian forces are assuming greater responsibility elsewhere, with Russian personnel providing air and intelligence support.
Open source reportGoita's government will struggle to weather the storm, and the odds of a fresh coup are high and rising.
Goita’s government will struggle to withstand the pressure and that the likelihood of another coup is increasing.
Open source reportJNIM and its allies have imposed a blockade of Bamako... Food prices rose 45% in the past few days as militant checkpoints restricted 70% of commercial transit routes into the city.
JNIM and allied militants established checkpoints affecting 70% of commercial transit routes and that food prices rose 45% within several days.
Open source reportJama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) called on "all sincere patriots, without exception" to join its efforts to overthrow Mali's military government under Col. Assimi Goita.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin called on “all sincere patriots” to join efforts to overthrow the government led by Assimi Goita.
Open source reportJNIM claims it has imposed a siege on the capital of Bamako, and at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions have fallen to the FLA
Assimi Goita reappeared publicly after coordinated JNIM and FLA attacks affected senior officials. JNIM's claim of a siege of Bamako, FLA captures of at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions, and a brief ISSP seizure of Menaka before the army retook it.
Open source reportThe Kremlin also.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Africa Corps troops defended Kidal, prevented a coup and defeated fighters trained by European instructors, including Ukrainians. The foreign-training allegation is unsupported by evidence.
Open source reportAssuming it survives, Mali's junta will likely continue to accept Russian help, but may now seek to deepen other security partnerships, including with Turkey, its fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even the U.S.
The junta will continue accepting Russian assistance but may deepen ties with Turkey, Burkina Faso, Niger and potentially the United States. Other governments relying on Russia’s Africa Corps will watch the outcome closely.
Open source reportThe broader assault also raised questions about Col. Assimi Goita's military leadership, which has failed to solve the security problems that prompted its coup to overthrow Mali's last civilian government in 2020.
That the broader assault has increased scrutiny of Colonel Assimi Goita’s leadership and the junta’s failure to resolve the insecurity cited is justification for the 2020 coup.
Open source reportThe BBC suggested that the failure of Russian Africa Corps fighters to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia's reputation as a reliable security partner in the Sahel.
The failure of Russian Africa Corps personnel to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia’s standing as a reliable Sahel security partner.
Open source reportRecord-high gold prices are giving them added incentive to stay put.
Mining companies accustomed to security threats remain willing to operate in Mali partly because of record-high gold prices.
Open source reportGold miners operating in Mali seem unfazed by the coordinated attacks Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) staged over the weekend.
JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front conducted coordinated attacks over the weekend, primarily targeting junta leaders while largely sparing gold-mining operations. It also references an January JNIM attack on Flagship Gold’s Morila Mine.
Open source reportJNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime.
JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front may prefer concessions over toppling and governing Mali. The stated possible objectives are an end to counterinsurgency operations and greater Tuareg autonomy or eventual independence.
Open source reportEmerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands.
emerging reports suggest JNIM controls Kidal and that JNIM-FLA fighters are positioned around Mopti, Sevaré and Gao.
Open source reportTwo other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné died of his wounds.
Coordinated JNIM-FLA attacks killed or injured senior junta figures, including the death of Gen. Modibo Koné. President Assimi Goita was moved to a secure location and had not been heard from, leaving the government’s condition unclear.
Open source reportThe FLA bested Russian mercenaries in Kidal and took control of the city after the Russians agreed to withdraw. The FLA then called on Russia to "reconsider its support for the military junta" and leave Mali altogether
The FLA defeated Russian mercenaries in Kidal, assumed control after they agreed to withdraw and urged Russia to end its support for Mali’s military government.
Open source reportJihadists from the al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces with the Tuareg separatist-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to launch a wave of attacks across Mali that captured several towns and killed the junta's defense minister, Gen. Sadio Camara.
JNIM and the FLA captured several towns, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara and targeted junta leader Assimi Goita, who escaped unharmed. This is their first broad, coordinated offensive despite their divergent political goals.
Open source reportWhile there's no direct evidence that Russia was involved an any of the putschs, it was quick to capitalize on the opportunity to bolster each junta with no-strings-attached security support in exchange for mineral access.
There is no direct evidence that Russia participated in the coups, but Moscow capitalized on them by providing security support to the resulting juntas in exchange for mineral access.
Open source reportRussia's Deputy Foreign Minister - Sergey Vershinin - accused the West of "waging a large-scale campaign to destabilize the situation" in the junta-run Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin accused the West of conducting a large-scale campaign to destabilize the military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
Open source reportMali's junta responded to opposition protests demanding a return to democracy by formally dissolving all political parties and disappearing three opposition politicians.
Mali's junta dissolved all political parties following pro-democracy protests and was responsible for the disappearance of three opposition politicians. The repression is linked to opposition against granting coup leader Assimi Goita a five-year unelected presidential term.
Open source reportA national conference of Mali's political figures backed the junta's proposal to appoint coup leader Assimi Goïta as interim president, with a five-year term.
A national conference supported naming junta leader Assimi Goïta interim president for five years. Key opposition figures boycotted the proceedings and challenged the proposal’s legitimacy.
Open source reportIt remains to be seen whether any of them will actually relinquish rule.
The speaker compares Niger’s transition plan with those of Burkina Faso and Mali and questions whether the three military governments will ultimately relinquish power.
Open source reportThe Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS.
The military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger unveiled a flag for the Alliance of Sahel States, which as a bloc formed in opposition to ECOWAS.
Open source reportBurkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger gained another six months to reconsider their stated decisions to leave ECOWAS after an exit originally expected on January 29, 2025.
Open source reportNiger joined its fellow junta state, Mali, in cutting off diplomatic ties with Ukraine after Ukraine's support for Tuareg rebels... Ukraine tacitly acknowledged supporting the Tuaregs
Niger joined Mali in cutting diplomatic relations with Ukraine over Ukrainian assistance to Tuareg rebels who fought Wagner-backed Malian forces. A Ukrainian statement about providing information is tacit acknowledgment; Russia’s “terrorist” terminology supports its narrative of an African front in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Open source reportTuareg separatists engaged Malian soldiers backed by Russian Wagner troops near Mali's border with Algeria... The rebels say they seized "a large amount of equipment and weapons" and took "dozens" of Wagner fighters captive.
Tuareg separatists fought Malian soldiers and Wagner personnel over three days near the Algerian border. The rebels claimed they destroyed enemy columns, seized weapons and equipment, and captured dozens of Wagner fighters; Mali acknowledged two soldier deaths and the loss of a helicopter but did not confirm Wagner’s involvement.
Open source reportIts success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States
That the operation benefits the three military-led Alliance of Sahel States governments, which is receiving Russian support.
Open source reportMali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo)
Mali’s claim that its forces and Tuareg fighters killed Abu Huzeifa, also known as Higgo, in Liptako. Him is a planner of the 2017 Tongo Tongo attack that killed four U.S. troops.
Open source report