Ceasefire diplomacy advances amid continued fighting in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and eastern DRC

Off Leash update 24 March 2025

COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton

UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission.

GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle.

YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target).

SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan.

DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2