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One consolidated view of the Caribbean theater — every tracked development, actor, and source report, stitched into a single evolving narrative.
Latest assessment
U.S. pressure is probably intended to make Havana stop providing a permissive environment for governments hostile to the United States to conduct intelligence and military operations near Florida.
Assessment development · updated through
U.S. pressure is probably intended to make Havana stop providing a permissive environment for governments hostile to the United States to conduct intelligence and military operations near Florida.
Open source reportGeography
Every mapped development in this theater. Marker precision is disclosed on selection; country and regional centroids show scope, not an exact incident site.
Caribbean theater
19 mapped developments across 4 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Port-au-Prince
Haiti installed a transitional council and Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigned in absentia. Gunfire during the swearing-in; gang violence threatens the council’s mandate to organize elections and inaugurate a president by February 2026.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
they are probably intended to coerce Havana into ending its decades-long practice of offering a "permissive environment" for governments hostile to the U.S. to run intelligence and military operations from a base only 90 miles (145 km) from Florida.
U.S. pressure is probably intended to make Havana stop providing a permissive environment for governments hostile to the United States to conduct intelligence and military operations near Florida.
Open source reportCuba... called the new sanctions and thinly-veiled threats "illegal" and "coercive."
Cuba characterized the new U.S. measures and threats as “illegal” and “coercive.”
Open source reportCiting Cuba's ties to Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. slapped broad new sanctions on Cuban entities and officials involved in the "energy, defense and related materiel, metals and mining, financial services, or security sector of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy."
Washington sanctioned Cuban entities and officials across the energy, defense, mining, metals, financial-services, and security sectors, citing Cuban ties to Iran and Hezbollah.
Open source reportThe Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island.
The sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin delivered enough fuel for three to four weeks after receiving U.S. approval. The White House may consider further shipments individually, marking a limited exception to the administration’s stated blockade policy.
Open source reportAt least one state-owned (and U.S.-sanctioned) Russian tanker appears to be headed for Cuba to deliver the fuel-starved island 730,000 barrels of crude oil.
The state-owned Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin appears to be carrying 730,000 barrels of crude toward Cuba while broadcasting “Atlantis, USA” as its destination. Treasury added Cuba to a list of destinations barred from purchasing newly unsanctioned Russian oil.
Open source reportMost of what we know comes from the Cuban government's account of the incident, but that's now being called into question after one of the men Havana identified as a dead attacker popped up alive and well in Miami.
Details of a February 26 shootout involving Cuban border guards; seaborne infiltrators remain murky. A man identified by Havana as a dead attacker was subsequently found alive in Miami, calling part of the official account into question, while suggesting those actually killed or captured were Cuban dissidents.
Open source reportCNN reported that the UK disagrees with the extrajudicial strikes the U.S. force has been carrying out against suspected drug trafficking boats in the region, and stopped sharing relevant intelligence with the U.S. soon after the strikes began.
The United Kingdom stopped sharing relevant intelligence after objecting to U.S. strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels. The United States has conducted 19 strikes; the loss of British intelligence will not prevent further operations.
Open source reportThe U.S. Navy has sent the USS Gerald Ford - its most advanced aircraft carrier - to the Caribbean to join the ongoing mobilization in the seas around Venezuela, cutting its previous mission to the Mediterranean short by several months.
The U.S. Navy redirected the USS Gerald Ford from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean, adding a claimed 5,500 personnel to an existing U.S. force of approximately 10,000.
Open source reportHurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as the strongest storm the island nation has ever recorded, but weakened to a Category 3 storm before reaching Cuba early today.
Melissa is the strongest storm recorded in Jamaica; it weakened to Category 3 before reaching Cuba. The storm’s earlier strengthening comes from unusually warm water, citing unnamed climatologists.
Open source reporttwo Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations."
Two Venezuelan military jets approached a U.S. guided-missile destroyer operating in international waters off Venezuela. The Pentagon characterized the encounter as interference with U.S. counter-narcotics and counterterrorism operations and warned the Maduro government against further obstruction.
Open source reportThe U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown.
The United States would remove Cuba from its state-sponsors-of-terrorism list in exchange for the Cuban government releasing protesters jailed following its 2021 crackdown. Recent U.S. administrations have repeatedly changed Cuba’s designation.
Open source reportThree of the 15 are eligible for transfer but - like the Yemenis - come from unstable countries they can't be transferred back to (Somalia, Libya, and Stateless Rohingya Myanmar); the rest are being held indefinitely because they've been convicted / charged or are otherwise ineligible for transfer.
Three of the remaining 15 prisoners are eligible for transfer, while the others have been convicted, charged or deemed otherwise ineligible.
Open source reportDoctors Without Borders (or MSF, using its French acronym) said it would end its work in Haiti because of "violence and threats" police have made towards medical aid workers.
Doctors Without Borders would end its work in Haiti because of violence and threats by police against medical workers, including attacks on ambulances transporting injured gang members.
Open source reportLocal vigilantes fought alongside police, and together they killed 28 suspected gang members.
Haitian police clashed with Viv Ansanm after Jimmy Chérizier announced plans to attack Pétionville. Police and local vigilantes killed 28 suspected gang members.
Open source reportEarlier this week, two gangs - 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan - seemingly deliberately targeted U.S. Embassy vehicles in Port-au-Prince, leading the Embassy to evacuate up to 20 of its "non-emergency" diplomats from the post.
Attacks on U.S. Embassy vehicles to 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan and says up to 20 non-emergency diplomats were evacuated. Gunmen struck a UN humanitarian helicopter with at least eight shots, causing the UN to cancel aid flights.
Open source reportCuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend.
Four nationwide grid failures over the weekend, attributes them to power-plant problems; Cuba’s eight electricity plants as nearly 50 years old and poorly maintained. President Miguel Díaz-Canel urged citizens to express their frustrations peacefully.
Open source reportFour Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway.
Four Russian naval vessels arrived in Havana, that Cuban officials denied the vessels carried weapons, and that the United States was monitoring them.
Open source reportHaiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government.
Interim Prime Minister Garry Conille appointed a new cabinet and replaced most ministers who had served under former Prime Minister Ariel Henry.
Open source reportNext Sunday, the Dominican Republic votes in a general election.
The Dominican Republic will hold a general election the following Sunday.
Open source reportBélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members
Bélizaire may not remain in office because he received support from only four of the council’s nine members.
Open source reportHaiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister
Haiti’s transitional council selected former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to replace interim Prime Minister Michel Patrick Boisvert amid efforts to restore governance and counter gangs.
Open source reportHaiti installed a new transitional council, and PM Henry formally resigned in absentia - as he'd promised to do once the council was in place. The gunshots that rang out in the background as council members took their oaths of office offered a preview of the tough task that lies ahead of them
Haiti installed a transitional council and Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigned in absentia. Gunfire during the swearing-in; gang violence threatens the council’s mandate to organize elections and inaugurate a president by February 2026.
Open source report