Ceasefire diplomacy, Haiti gang violence and Ukraine escalation

Off Leash update 20November Hezbollah •U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is "within our grasp" after Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri relayed Hezbollah's positive feedback on the latest proposed terms. •Even if Israel and Hezbollah are able to work out a truce, maintaining peace would be a challenge. The tall task of ensuring security for the border areas Hezbollah previously occupied would fall on the enfeebled Lebanese military - which has been hollowed out by decades of partisan infighting and has not proven itself up to the task. Gaza •In a change of tack, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu offered hostage captors a carrot - in addition to a stick: he announced a reward of $5 million and safe passage from Gaza for anyone who returns an Israeli hostage. He also reiterated the threat of the stick, vowing to make anyone who harms a hostage "pay the price." Haiti •Haiti's police clashed with Viv Ansanm gang members in the posh Port-au-Prince suburb of Pétionville early yesterday after Viv Ansanm's leader, charismatic ex-cop Jimmy Chérizier (aka "Barbeque"), announced plans to attack the area on social media the previous night. Chérizier specifically threatened managers of Pétionville hotels protecting politicians or "oligarchs" inside. •Chérizier's advance warning may have given police and local residents time to mount a counterattack. Local vigilantes fought alongside police, and together they killed 28 suspected gang members. •Separately, Doctors Without Borders (or MSF, using its French acronym) said it would end its work in Haiti because of "violence and threats" police have made towards medical aid workers. MSF gives medical assistance to all who need it - including gang members - and its ambulances have occasionally been targeted for transporting injured gangsters. Venezuela •The U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the "president-elect" of Venezuela. •That's consistent with the vote tallies the opposition provided, which showed Gonzalez defeating Pres. Maduro by a margin of almost two to one. Those are the only credible tallies available, since Maduro's government hasn't provided data to support his claim to victory. •Gonzalez is no longer in Venezuela to assume the presidency: he fled to Spain in September, citing fears for his life amidst Maduro's crackdown on the opposition. Ukraine •Multiple accounts - including from UK and Ukrainian military officials and the BBC - concluded that Russia suffered more military casualties in October than in any other month of the war. The UK estimated a daily average of 1,354 Russians killed or injured on each day of October. •The UK now estimates that Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties over the 1,000 days of the war to date. •Separately, Ukraine said it fired U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) ballistic missiles at targets in Russia's Bryansk border region (west of Kursk) for the first time yesterday - two days after reportedly getting Washington's long-withheld approval to do so. o[U.S. media had initially reported that the authorization would only be for use in Kursk, but this adjacent province may have been included in the approval since it houses military arsenals that support the fighting in Kursk.] •Russia claimed it intercepted five of six missiles fired and damaged the sixth. A U.S. official said only two of eight missiles fired were intercepted, and the other six hit their targets inside a munitions depot. •Moscow complained about the ATACMS barrage, calling it a "qualitatively new phase of the Western war" and promising to retaliate "accordingly." 1/2