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4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Edmundo González Urrutia arrived in Guatemala after a stop in the Dominican Republic and met President Bernardo Arévalo. Nicolás Maduro’s security services blocked González from returning to Venezuela before Maduro’s inauguration.
Unverified development · updated through
Edmundo González Urrutia arrived in Guatemala after a stop in the Dominican Republic and met President Bernardo Arévalo. Nicolás Maduro’s security services blocked González from returning to Venezuela before Maduro’s inauguration.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Edmundo González Urrutia dossier
3 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Venezuela
The EU asked Venezuela’s National Electoral Council to publish official voting records; currently available records appeared to show Edmundo González Urrutia winning the presidential election by a significant majority.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 15 January Gaza •SecState Blinken reported that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is "closer than it’s ever been before" and only awaiting Hamas's final approval. •Negotiators say Hamas seems ready to accept the terms on the table, and Israel has reportedly agreed too - though not publicly. Ukraine •A long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas. •Separately, unconfirmed reports suggest Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins - who was fighting for Ukraine when Russian troops captured him last year - has died in Russian captivity. Australia expressed "grave concerns" for his safety and threatened the "strongest possible action" if Russian forces killed him. South Korea •South Korean police detained Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol after a lengthy stand-off at his fortified residence. •Yoon is technically still the sitting president, although he was impeached and suspended last month over his brief attempt to impose martial law. •The Constitutional Court will first decide whether to uphold his impeachment, and - if it does uphold - whether to permanently remove him from office. China •Sunday is the deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company to sell the video-sharing app or face a ban - unless the U.S. Supreme Court strikes the ban down before then. •The NYT reports that many of the app's 170 million U.S. users are reluctantly switching to alternative apps in anticipation of a ban. Ironically, one of the top alternative apps for "TikTok refugees" - as they're calling themselves - is also Chinese owned: Xiaohongshu (RedNote). Cuba •The U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown. •The designation has been a ping pong ball between U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations: Cuba was removed under Obama, added in the final days of Trump's first term, now removed again under Biden, and may be added again in Trump's second term. Oil Prices •Last week's fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil - and, in particular, the tankers carrying it - have caused supertanker shipping rates to surge. Current VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday. •The sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives. •But grey and black markets always find workarounds, and the current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, landed in Guatemala yesterday - apparently after a six-day stop in the Dominican Republic. •González had planned to return from exile in Spain to Venezuela in time for inauguration day last Friday, but Pres. Maduro's security services blocked his return, and Maduro was uneventfully (and illegitimately) sworn in instead. •González met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown. Mozambique •Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as Mozambique's new president today. His inauguration was as unexciting as Pres. Maduro's in Venezuela - and, Mozambique's opposition argues, as illegitimate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct North Korea •U.S. intelligence corroborated reports that North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia, but officials stopped short of explicitly concluding that they're training to fight in Ukraine - or perhaps are already fighting in Ukraine (as South Korea and Ukraine credibly allege). •SecDef Austin called the possibility of a North Korean deployment to Ukraine "very, very serious" and cast it as "an indication that [Pres. Putin] may be in even more trouble than most people realize." [Austin continued: "[Putin] went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK., and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people."] •North Korea's (alleged) presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker - in opposition to a warmongering West - on the geopolitical stage. The NYT wrote: "The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative." Turkey •Yesterday, armed attackers stormed the Ankara headquarters of Turkey's national aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries, killing at least five people. The incident was quickly followed by a similar attack on a nearby defense company, Tusaş, that killed four. •Turkey blamed the usual bogeyman, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and bombed at least 30 PKK-linked "strategic locations" in northern Iraq and Syria. Kurdish officials said Turkey's reprisal airstrikes killed 12 civilians. •The timing was interesting, as Turkey's government has recently been subtly signalling a new willingness to end its 40-year conflict with the PKK. Just a day before the attacks, a far-right party leader allied with Pres. Erdogan publicly suggested that Erdogan could grant the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, parole if he disbanded the PKK and renounced violence. •Öcalan's nephew - who was allowed to visit his uncle in prison for the first time in 43 months on Wednesday, just hours before the Ankara attacks - says Öcalan is open to taking a possible parole-for-peace deal. •That said, some question whether PKK militants would heed Öcalan's call to disband and renounce violence. There's speculation that PKK extremists carried out the Ankara attacks to derail a peace deal. Afghanistan •Taliban Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani gave a rare interview with a Western journlist. It was only his second interview with a Western journalist since the Taliban regained power in 2021, and it was with a female journalist (!): the NYT's Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief. •Her pair of articles based on this interview and extensive related primary and secondary research and portray Haqqani as a jihadist-turned-diplomat now quietly advocating from within for more moderate policies than hardline Taliban emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada has decreed. Venezuela •The EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize - a prestigious award recognizing dedication to defending human rights and democracy - to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. •In awarding the prize, EU parliament president Roberta Metsola reaffirmed the EU legislature's support for the opposition: "This parliament stands with the people of Venezuela and with Maria and Edmundo in their struggle for the democratic future of their country." Mozambique •Mozambique's electoral commission declared Daniel Chapo of the long-ruling Frelimo party the country's president-elect, with 71% of the official vote. •The opposition cried foul, alleging fraud, and a charismatic independent candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, called on supporters to "paralyse the country." [The murder on Saturday of Mr. Mondlane's lawyer - who was preparing a legal appeal of election results - helped fuel suspicions that Frelimo is conspiring against dissenters.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Aug Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Open tennis tournament starts today in New York, and the Paralympics begin Wednesday in Paris. •Thursday is the 75th anniversary of the first Soviet atomic bomb test - and also the international day against nuclear weapons testing. Three countries - India, Pakistan, and North Korea - have not signed the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty prohibiting testing, and five - China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and the U.S. - have signed but not ratified it. •Sunday is the 85th anniversary of the start of World War II. •Azerbaijan and Germany both hold parliamentary elections on Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,542/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $24,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,289/ton •Gold: $2,512/toz •Lead: $2,117/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.02/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $74.83/barrel •Zinc: $2,912/ton Israel and Gaza •Hamas sent a delegation to peace talks in Cairo, but they left early after rejecting Israel's demand for an ongoing Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor. •Meanwhile in the north, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged much heavier gunfire than usual, briefly raising concerns about a broader regional war. Then both sides abruptly pulled back after proving what seemed like symbolic points. •Hezbollah called its strikes a "complete success" and Israel also seemed satisfied that its "pre-emptive" strikes succeeded in weakening Hezbollah's barrage. Venezuela •The EU issued a gently-worded condemnation of Pres. Maduro's election theft, calling on Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) to release official voting records (or actas), and pointing out that - given currently publicly-available actas - "Edmundo González Urrutia would appear to be the winner of the presidential election by a significant majority." •Maduro and the CNE have ignored much more strongly-worded critiques than that, so the EU's diplomatic comments are unlikely to change their thinking. Sudan •Sudan's junta leader, Gen. Abdel Fatah Al Burhan, vowed to "fight for 100 years." •His side didn't show up to peace talks in Geneva, which ended on Friday without a deal. However, army representatives participated by phone, and the two sides were able to make some minor progress on improving aid flows. Russia •The U.S. slapped sanctions on 63 Russian, 42 Chinese, and 18 third-country firms for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. Some of the targeted firms helped send U.S. military and dual-use technology to Russia, while others helped supply Russia with parts to make other military kit and weapons, including Shahed-136 drones. •Four prisoners claiming allegiance to Islamic State laid seige to a prison in Volgograd (southern Russia), killing four prison guards and taking 12 people - eight guards and four fellow inmates - hostage before snipers "liquidated" the hostage-takers. Ukraine •Ukraine traded 115 of the Russian prisoners it took in Kursk for 115 Ukrainian prisoners of war. •It was the first prisoner swap since Ukraine began its Kursk incursion. A Washington Post analysis concluded that Ukraine has captured at least another 132 Russian prisoners in Kursk that it could trade in a future swap; most seem to be new conscripts with little fighting experience. •Russia launched a massive wave of drone attacks on Kyiv and northwestern Ukraine this morning, targeting infrastructure. Air defenses are active, but imperfect: the Russian strikes damaged at least one building in Lutsk and caused widespread power and water outages in several areas. •Separately, a Russian Iskander-M missile struck a hotel in Donetsk housing journalists, killing one British safety advisor for Reuters and injuring six others - including three more foreigners. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 August Russia •After months of complex negotiations, Russia released sixteen prisoners - including wrongfully detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan - in a swap that also saw Western countries release eight Russian prisoners - including very rightfully detained Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned in Germany for murdering a Chechen leader there. •The NYT noted that Pres. Putin "can use [Krasikov's release] to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad." Some analysts suggested he'll also use Krasikov to train new recruited hitmen to better evade capture. Ukraine •Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer. These first jets came from Denmark and the Netherlands; it's not clear how many were in this first wave. Venezuela •U.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela, saying that "it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election." •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González, who ran in her place after she was barred from the ballot. North Korea •North Korea reported extensive damage from flooding in its northern regions bordering China. •Brushing off the recent swarms of "trash balloons" the North has floated over their shared border, South Korea offered to send humanitarian aid north to its bitter foe. If Kim Jong Un accepts the South's aid, it could lead to the first official talks between them in years. Israel •The NYT published new details on Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Apparently the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was smuggled into the guesthouse where he was killed months ago. •The blast was so targeted that it killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah - the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was sleeping next door - was unscathed with very little damage to his room. •Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke at the funeral of a Hezbollah commander killed in another recent Israeli strike - this one in Beirut on Tuesday, just before the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran. •Nasrallah exercised restraint by not calling for prompt retaliation (as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei did after the Tehran blast). Rather, he vaguely mentioned that the conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" and warned Israel ominously but non-committally "You do not realize the red lines you have crossed." Hezbollah lobbed a few more rockets over the border. DRC •Ex-Pres. Kabila's wife, Olive Lembe Kabila, said that dozens of youth - reportedly linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me" on Wednesday. •Mrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by. •There were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
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