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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Israel has 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, after which the Lebanese military is to control those areas and prevent Hezbollah’s return to the border region.
Unverified development · updated through
Israel has 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, after which the Lebanese military is to control those areas and prevent Hezbollah’s return to the border region.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Lebanese military dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Southern Lebanon
Israel has 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, after which the Lebanese military is to control those areas and prevent Hezbollah’s return to the border region.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 27 Nov 2024 Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving to you all America! We stand on the shoulders of giants and must care wisely for our Republic. Hezbollah •Israel's cabinet approved a deal for a "permanent cessation of hostilities" with Hezbollah yesterday, and it went into effect at 4 am local time. •As early reports suggested, the truce gives Israel 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, handing control of those areas to the Lebanese military, which will be responsible for ensuring Hezbollah doesn't return to the border regions (as it did quickly after the failed 2006 peace agreement). •Turkey called on Israel to pay Lebanon reparations for the damage Israeli airstrikes inflicted during the campaign. The World Bank estimated that the three-month campaign caused Lebanon $8.5 billion in damage and losses. However, Israel has no obligation to pay - and probably won't. •Some - including Pres. Biden - were hopeful that Hezbollah's decision to make peace with Israel will galvanize (or cow) Hamas into a similar agreement, but that doesn't seem likely: neither Hamas nor Israel has shown any inclination to deescalate. China •The Financial Times (FT) reported that China's Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, is being investigated for corruption. Dong is the third Chinese Defense Minister in a row to face corruption allegations. •Analysts think the investigation is a sign that Pres. Xi is expanding his crackdown on corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Some further surmised that the inquiries - and the fact that they keep digging up dirt on Xi's handpicked top brass - could shake Xi's confidence in his military, which could alter his timeline and ambitions on Beijing's claim to Taiwan. •China dismissed the FT report about Dong as "shadow chasing," but there have been other signs that Dong's clout is diminished: for example, he was recently skipped over for a widely-expected appointment to the Central Military Commission that runs the PLA. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's government announced yet another investigation into alleged "crimes of treason against the country" by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. •Maduro blames Machado for inspiring the U.S. to slap sanctions on him and his cronies, but all she really did was organize a way to expose Maduro's election theft by collecting true vote tallies that confirmed he lost the election. Mozambique •After weeks of trying to brush post-election protests under the rug, Pres. Nyusi acknowledged an impasse and offered to meet opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane for talks on election results Mondlane has questioned. Mondlane refused to attend in person but offered to talk virtually - if the ruling Frelimo party agrees to that and his other demands. •Some minor opposition parties did attend talks with Frelimo, but the meeting lost steam quickly without a quorum. •Meanwhile, protests flared back up after police violently broke up a pro-Mondlane rally. Netizens were particularly aghast at a widely-shared video of an armored police vehicle running down an unarmed protester earlier today. Pakistan •Supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan ended their demonstrations demanding his release - and the dissolution of the government that convicted him - after police used force to disrupt the rallies. At least six - including both police and demonstrators - died in the melee.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20November Hezbollah •U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is "within our grasp" after Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri relayed Hezbollah's positive feedback on the latest proposed terms. •Even if Israel and Hezbollah are able to work out a truce, maintaining peace would be a challenge. The tall task of ensuring security for the border areas Hezbollah previously occupied would fall on the enfeebled Lebanese military - which has been hollowed out by decades of partisan infighting and has not proven itself up to the task. Gaza •In a change of tack, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu offered hostage captors a carrot - in addition to a stick: he announced a reward of $5 million and safe passage from Gaza for anyone who returns an Israeli hostage. He also reiterated the threat of the stick, vowing to make anyone who harms a hostage "pay the price." Haiti •Haiti's police clashed with Viv Ansanm gang members in the posh Port-au-Prince suburb of Pétionville early yesterday after Viv Ansanm's leader, charismatic ex-cop Jimmy Chérizier (aka "Barbeque"), announced plans to attack the area on social media the previous night. Chérizier specifically threatened managers of Pétionville hotels protecting politicians or "oligarchs" inside. •Chérizier's advance warning may have given police and local residents time to mount a counterattack. Local vigilantes fought alongside police, and together they killed 28 suspected gang members. •Separately, Doctors Without Borders (or MSF, using its French acronym) said it would end its work in Haiti because of "violence and threats" police have made towards medical aid workers. MSF gives medical assistance to all who need it - including gang members - and its ambulances have occasionally been targeted for transporting injured gangsters. Venezuela •The U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the "president-elect" of Venezuela. •That's consistent with the vote tallies the opposition provided, which showed Gonzalez defeating Pres. Maduro by a margin of almost two to one. Those are the only credible tallies available, since Maduro's government hasn't provided data to support his claim to victory. •Gonzalez is no longer in Venezuela to assume the presidency: he fled to Spain in September, citing fears for his life amidst Maduro's crackdown on the opposition. Ukraine •Multiple accounts - including from UK and Ukrainian military officials and the BBC - concluded that Russia suffered more military casualties in October than in any other month of the war. The UK estimated a daily average of 1,354 Russians killed or injured on each day of October. •The UK now estimates that Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties over the 1,000 days of the war to date. •Separately, Ukraine said it fired U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) ballistic missiles at targets in Russia's Bryansk border region (west of Kursk) for the first time yesterday - two days after reportedly getting Washington's long-withheld approval to do so. o[U.S. media had initially reported that the authorization would only be for use in Kursk, but this adjacent province may have been included in the approval since it houses military arsenals that support the fighting in Kursk.] •Russia claimed it intercepted five of six missiles fired and damaged the sixth. A U.S. official said only two of eight missiles fired were intercepted, and the other six hit their targets inside a munitions depot. •Moscow complained about the ATACMS barrage, calling it a "qualitatively new phase of the Western war" and promising to retaliate "accordingly." 1/2
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