Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin delivered enough fuel for three to four weeks after receiving U.S. approval. The White House may consider further shipments individually, marking a limited exception to the administration’s stated blockade policy.
Unverified development · updated through
The sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin delivered enough fuel for three to four weeks after receiving U.S. approval. The White House may consider further shipments individually, marking a limited exception to the administration’s stated blockade policy.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Anatoly Kolodkin dossier
1 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Cuba
The sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin delivered enough fuel for three to four weeks after receiving U.S. approval. The White House may consider further shipments individually, marking a limited exception to the administration’s stated blockade policy.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 1 April IRAN •Pres. Trump plans to address the nation on Iran this evening, and has hinted to reporters that he'll claim his objectives have been achieved and announce a winding down of the war in the next two to three weeks. •Iran's leaders may be skeptical of agreeing to a truce - especially one pitched on April Fool's Day. •For one thing, Trump's stated goal in both brief wars on Iran in the past year - ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb - still hasn't been conclusively achieved. Iran's 400 kg of enriched uranium is still at large, and its regime hasn't committed to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. If anything, this war may have hardened them. •Nonetheless, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian seemed cautiously open to a truce, as long as it came with security guarantees. That part will need to be fleshed out in talks. •Israel seems ready to end the war, too. The Israel Defense Forces estimated yesterday that all of its "critical" targets - i.e., those directly linked to Iran's missile programs that present an immediate threat - and "essential" targets - essential military-industrial sites that present a slightly less imminent threat - will be destroyed by today. •Americans will be glad to see the war end and fuel prices retreat. Two-thirds of respondents to a Reuters / Ipsos poll said they supported ending the war quickly, even if Trump's shifting goals for it are unmet. CHINA •As Trump vacillates on how the war might end, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker with a clearer, five-point peace plan that it pitched yesterday with Pakistan. •The Chinese-Pakistani plan calls for an immediate end to hostilities and strikes on infrastructure, a resumption of "normal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and "peace talks as soon as possible." •Analysts pointed out that this plan has striking parallels with the 12-point plan China proposed for ending the war in Ukraine in 2023. •That push fizzled out after Xi Jinping declined to stake his political capital meddling in a foreign crisis. It's unclear whether he has any more appetite for intervention now. CUBA •The Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island. •This shipment will last Cuba 3-4 weeks, and it may be the first of several: the White House said it would evaluate whether to allow other fuel deliveries to Cuba on a "case-by-case basis." •That's a stark reversal from Trump's proclamation on Truth Social in January that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Trump said he relented out of humanitarian concern for fuel-starved Cubans, but analysts suggested he lost interest in picking a fight with Cuba while his attention is focused on Iran. IRAQ •American journalist Shelley Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday, and analysts are worried that Iran-linked militias targeted her over the U.S. war in Iran. Details are still hazy. DRC •U.S. firm Virtus Metals finalized its $30 million acquisition of cobalt producer Chemaf - which owns DRC's massive Mutoshi copper-cobalt project - on Friday, thanks in part to U.S. government lobbying driven by a desire to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals. •That will make Virtus the largest non-Chinese cobalt miner in DRC, but it faces major financial and operating challenges - including a $1 billion debt burden. Virtus committed to raising $720 million to invest in its new asset, including $250-300 million of capex to finish long-stalled upgrades. •DRC is still actively courting Chinese investment, too. Last week, it signed a new mineral cooperation pact with Beijing that secured China's commitment to share geological data and promote more local processing of raw materials in DRC. •A Congo-focused analyst observed: "The DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets."
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March GAZA •As the U.S. and Israel pounded Iran last week, U.S. mediators shared a demilitarization proposal with Iran's Palestinian proxy, Hamas. •The offer demands a "complete handover" and "full decommissioning" of all Hamas weapons - as well as those of all other armed groups in Gaza - and guarantees support for the territory's large-scale rebuilding in return. •Hamas reportedly has about a week to formally respond, but without a biting ultimatum, its leaders will probably stall for more time to strengthen their control over Gaza so they can negotiate a softer commitment to disarmament than this proposal, which one official criticized as a "take it or leave it" offer. IRAN •The European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]," but several officials involved were careful to emphasize that "appropriate efforts" did not include the military support Pres. Trump is asking allies to send. •The WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area and use them as a base to thwart Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The Marine force is due to arrive from Japan next week. OIL •The U.S. Treasury Department is reportedly considering relaxing sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that's already loaded and at sea, in a bid to ease surging oil prices amidst wartime supply disruptions. •A similar relaxation of Russian oil sanctions last week added about 130 million barrels to the global marketplace and temporarily lowered crude prices, but prices spiked again after Israel escalated attacks on Iranian energy sites. •Critics blasted the idea of gifting two adversaries with windfall profits they can reinvest in the wars they're actively fighting against the U.S. (Iran) or its interests (Russia). •A regulatory consultant quoted in the Washington Post complained: "Two countries that we’ve spent years sanctioning are now the direct beneficiaries of a conflict the United States chose to start." CUBA •As the Trump administration mulls relaxing sanctions on Russian oil, the Kremlin is stress-testing another of its foreign policy priorities: its energy blockade on Cuba. •At least one state-owned (and U.S.-sanctioned) Russian tanker appears to be headed for Cuba to deliver the fuel-starved island 730,000 barrels of crude oil. [In a coy move, the Anatoly Kolodkin is broadcasting its destination as "Atlantis, USA," which is impossible because a) Atlantis doesn't exist, and b) sanctioned vessels are prohibited from docking in real U.S. ports. Tracking analysts say its course points to Cuba.] •The Treasury Department quickly added Cuba to the list of countries barred from buying newly-unsanctioned Russian oil (the others are North Korea, Iran, and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine). But that's unlikely to stop Russia from testing the U.S. blockade and delivering Cuba's first oil shipment in three months. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's U.S.-backed interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, fired her long-serving defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, and other top brass yesterday. •López and the other ousted officials had been loyal to Rodriguez's deposed predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and likely stood in the way of the reforms the U.S. is pressuring Rodriguez to make. •However, the fact that Rodriguez appointed another long-loyal, U.S.-sanctioned hardliner - military counterintelligence chief Gustavo González - to replace López suggests she's not in a hurry to make meaningful democratic reforms. This reshuffle lets her appear to be taking action while merely consolidating power for herself.
Open source report