Hormuz talks advance as Yemen, Turkey, Haiti and Venezuela face new political and security tests

Off Leash update 28 July 2026

IRAN •Pres. Trump said there have been "very friendly negotiations going on" with Iran during the lull in fighting that he announced on Sunday to allow for talks, but Iran - as usual - denied that any direct talks were taking place. There are probably some backchannel or indirect dealings taking place. • Iran has also used the reprieve to hold talks with Oman. Several rounds of bilateral negotiations produced a new Omani proposal for controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. •Under Oman's proposal, Oman, Iran, and other members of a regional consortium would collect a "voluntary service fee" for providing "security" to vessels transiting any of three proposed shipping lanes: two through Iranian and Omani territorial waters that are already seeing slow traffic, plus an international lane in the middle that would reopen after Iran removes the mines it planted there. •Some analysts say the Omani proposal resembles how the Strait of Malacca is jointly managed by Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia. There, ships voluntarily pay for services they use. But there are some key differences between Malacca and Hormuz that will make Hormuz harder to manage with that model. •For one, Malacca is a much busier chokepoint and ships are more likely to need - and be willing to pay for - navigational guidance and emergency services. By contrast, the biggest risk in Hormuz is the belligerence of one of its proposed guardians, who is now angling to extort fees for refraining from attacking vessels under its protection. [The NYT had an excellent analysis comparing the two chokepoints earlier this month; you can read it here (https://t.co/MQYv50XoYT).] •Iran has not yet agreed to the Omani proposal and will likely bristle at the idea of assuming responsibility for de-mining the middle lane, but its negotiators are reportedly engaging flexibly in talks.

YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis are eyeing Iran's success in using its control of the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions, and - in the words of Yemen's Foreign Minister - "want to copy the Iranian model" in the Red Sea. •They're likely further emboldened by the lack of consequences Iran has faced for its aggression in Hormuz, and by Pres. Trump's warning that he would hold Iran - not its Houthi proxies - responsible for future Houthi strikes on ships in the Red Sea. •Meanwhile on land, Houthi forces are mobilizing in areas they control ahead of what could be a return to full-scale war. Houthi and government forces are already engaging in relatively minor skirmishes along a long-frozen front line in Dhale in the south west. •Analysts suggest the Houthis might struggle more in a new round of fighting, now that the government side is better organized and enjoys stronger backing from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and UK. That could cause them to think twice about re-engaging in war.

TURKEY •Ozgur Ozel - the deposed leader of Turkey's longstanding opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) - launched a new party appropriately called the New Party (YP). •Ozel's frustrations with the CHP resonated with many other CHP parliamentarians, and over 90 of them defected from the CHP to join Ozel in the YP. With their defections, the YP surpassed the CHP to become the largest opposition party in parliament within only a week of its conception. •The YP must now quickly organize a national congress and provincial party offices in at least half of Turkey's 81 provinces if it wants to contest the next presidential election, which could take place next year. •Pres. Erdogan won't be pleased to have a new challenger, and will likely seek ways to stymie the YP's momentum. The CHP can attest to that: its presidential candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, is imprisoned on spurious charges.

HAITI •Haiti's electoral council announced plans to hold presidential and legislative elections on December 13, with a presidential runoff scheduled for Feb. 21, 2027 if no candidate secures a majority - which seems likely, given that 300 political parties plan to field a candidate in the first round. •Many Haiti watchers are skeptical that the first round will take place before year's end. Gangs still influence much of Haiti including part of the capital. The UN recently warned that thugs are trying to "capture the systems of government." •Separately, roughly 330,000 Haitians in the U.S. lost their Temporary Protected Status yesterday, and the Trump administration plans to start deporting them back to Haiti on weekly flights to Cap Hatien in the north, where gangs don't have a strong presence.

VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim government said it would start talks with the opposition on Saturday. •But those talks already seem doomed to fail. The opposition's exiled leader, Maria Corina Machado, said she wouldn't participate because her coalition was left out of the planning phase, insinuating that the dialogue mechanism the government planned would be slanted in its favor. Analysts outside of Venezuela agree: one said the talks are "largely a staged process." •The process faces criticism from the other side, too. Hardliners within the government see it as an imposition the U.S. forced upon pliant interim president Delcy Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor and installing her in his place. •Pugnacious Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello reassured hardliners that government negotiators wouldn't give the opposition an inch: "dialogue doesn’t mean capitulation."