Off Leash Intel · loading
12 direct mentions across 12 briefings, with 13 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The proposal does not resolve whether Iran and Oman may charge ships for navigational and security services; the issue is expected to be addressed in planned technical talks.
Unverified development · updated through
The proposal does not resolve whether Iran and Oman may charge ships for navigational and security services; the issue is expected to be addressed in planned technical talks.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oman dossier
2 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oman
11 Yemeni detainees were transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Oman for resettlement, leaving 15 prisoners at the facility.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 26 August 2026 IRAN •Iran and Oman said they were close to a deal to establish "a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of mines." •The latest proposal doesn't address the issue of whether Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge ships fees for their navigational and security "services" (which, for Iran, consist mainly of not attacking transiting ships). That question still needs to be worked out in planned "technical talks." •That doesn't mean the Strait is about to fully reopen. With or without a deal with Oman, Iran seems intent on keeping the chokepoint closed until the U.S. agrees to its list of demands, which include lifting the U.S. Navy's blockade on Iranian ports and reissuing a waiver for Iranian oil sales. CANADA •The U.S. and Canada further escalated their trade war. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on U.S. exports of steel, dairy, and electronics to Canada, effective Sep. 8, and Pres. Trump fired back with plans to slap 50% tariffs on car parts and steel, starting Jan. 1. •Canada will suffer more than the U.S. under reciprocal tariffs since the Canadian economy has less buffer than the 13-times-larger U.S. economy. •But Canadians largely support their leader's decision to walk away from trade talks instead of accepting a bad deal. A new poll showed that 76% of respondents thought Carney was right to abandon talks - even though 38% of them fear they could lose their jobs as a result. SYRIA •The U.S. removed Syria from its list of state sponsors of terror, in a major achievement for Pres. Al Sharaa - who has prioritized restoring diplomatic ties with Washington and lobbied for sanctions on him and his country to be lifted. •Syria had been designated a state sponsor of terror for 47 years - since the list's inception - so its removal now is significant. It will reduce the risk and regulatory burden of working and investing in Syria, which will help unlock funding for the reconstruction Al Sharaa wants to carry out. •In another big win for Al Sharaa's government, Mazloum Abdi - the head of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces - announced that his militia has disbanded and will merge with the Syrian army under Al Sharaa's command. In return, the government agreed to recognize Kurdish cultural, civil and educational rights in Syria.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 August 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •A total solar eclipse will darken the skies of Russia, Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, and Spain on Wednesday. This NASA page (https://t.co/lHBqGIu6m6) shows the eclipse path and when a full or partial eclipse will be visible by location. •Zambia will vote in presidential and assembly elections on Thursday. President Hakainde Hichilema looks likely to win re-election, but Brian Mundubile's energetic opposition campaign has gained steam in recent weeks. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,280/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,242/ton •Bitcoin: $64,976 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $14,076/ton - U.S. futures hit a record high last week as supply disruptions drove worried buyers to hoard stocks to meet persistent demand from new technologies. •Ethereum: $1,916 •Gold: $4,339/toz •Lead: $1,887/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.76/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.53/barrel •Zinc: $3,707/ton GAZA •Israel formally rejected the 15-point disarmament plan that the Trump administration put forth - and Hamas agreed to - late last month. •Israel's rejection represented a rare break from Pres. Trump for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is up for re-election in October. Netanyahu has likely calculated that his far-right support base would abandon him if he were to take Hamas's word that it will disarm and agree to withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza first. IRAN •Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran is "very close" to a deal with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but other Iranian officials then complicated the matter by tying a full reopening to a list of demands the U.S. must meet first. •Tehran's demands are the same concessions it's been seeking from the U.S. throughout negotiations: it wants the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iran, withdraw its military from the region, pay war reparations, release frozen Iranian funds, and pledge to never again attack Iran or its allies / proxies. •The White House didn't immediately respond to Iran's latest list of requirements, but Pres. Trump is unlikely to concede on all of those points just to reopen the Strait. He will want to keep some leverage to achieve other objectives in future negotiations - such as securing Iran's agreement to give up its highly enriched uranium. He may, though, make temporary or partial concessions like those offered in the June MOU. •Trump told reporters yesterday that he's not in a rush to reach a deal with Iran. Rather, he said, his negotiators are "low-keying it" and "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, which he believes will need to make a deal to stop runaway inflation and end a dire cash shortage. YEMEN •Yemen's struggling, internationally-recognized government retaliated against the Houthi rebels who reopened their long-simmering civil war with fresh attacks on government positions last week. •The Houthis control much of northern Yemen, and likely spied an opportunity to wrest more of the resource-rich south from government control while simultaneously enforcing a Red Sea blockade and mounting attacks on Saudi Arabia, which backs the government. DEFENSE •Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye signed a trilateral mutual defense pact after spending almost a year negotiating it. •Under the pact, members commit to joining forces to retaliate together against any attack against one of them. That clause seems like a big win for Saudi, which has the weakest military and faces the most imminent security threats of the three. •Turkish officials said the alliance would be open to welcoming more members in the future. Analysts suggest Egypt would be a good fit.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 August 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic could come as soon as today. •This would not be a U.S.-Iran deal. Rather, it would be a deal Iran and Oman have been negotiating with U.S. input through Qatari mediators. The U.S. is likely using the leverage of its own blockade of the Strait to demand that Iran drop its plans to charge tolls or fees for passage. •The current draft thus proposes a 60-day period in which Iran controls inbound traffic to the Persian Gulf while Oman controls outbound traffic, with neither charging transiting ships for passage. •During the first 30 days, Iran would lead an effort to clear the middle lane of the mines it laid, and after that lane is clear, Iran and Oman would jointly manage it on terms still to be decided - which could still involve fees. •Iran's leadership has reportedly agreed to the current proposal, which gives Iran more control over Hormuz than it had before the war. •Despite ongoing talks, Iran continues to menace commercial vessels daring to defy its orders and use the Omani route through the Strait of Hormuz. It struck the Greek-owned cargo ship Minoan Pioneer on Monday, and another cargo carrier yesterday. YEMEN •Iran's Houthi proxies in Yemen aren't done exercising their hold on shipping in the Red Sea, either. Earlier today, they claimed to have targeted a Saudi oil tanker, the Wafa, with ballistic missiles near the port of Yanbu. They were also likely responsible for sinking an Indian-flagged commercial vessel with a boat drone in the Red Sea yesterday. IRAQ •Meanwhile, new data from the Rudaq Media Network concluded that Iran and its proxies have launched 966 attacks on Iraq's northern Kurdistan Region since the Iran war began on Feb. 28. •Anger over those attacks - and over U.S. / Saudi strikes retaliating for attacks that Iran-linked militias launched from Iraq - adds new impetus for the Iraqi government in Baghdad to rein in the Shia militias inside its borders. •Baghdad will especially have to step up if - as rumored - the U.S. starts to draw down its forces in Kurdistan. UKRAINE •Ukraine struggled to intercept a fresh barrage of drones and missiles that Russia fired at Kyiv early this morning, intercepting 98 of the 115 incoming drones but none of the 28 missiles (including 24 ballistic missiles). At least 17 people were killed, making it one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv yet. •Pres. Zelensky blamed allies for their "unwillingness" to send interceptors that "could have saved lives," and called for more urgency delivering defenses. INDIA •Prime Minister Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost a special election for a seat in Bihar that it had solidly held for 30 years, raising speculation that the Cockroach Janta Party protesters who forced Modi's education minister to resign last month aren't the only Indians dissatisfied with Modi and the BJP. •Modi must call the next general election by April 2029. He'll want to address the rising wave of discontent with his government well before then. LIBYA •Several of Libya's many armed factions engaged in a new wave of clashes in the western cities of Sorman and Zawiya yesterday, before the Government of National Unity's (GNU's) "conflict resolution" force - the 52nd Infantry Brigade - intervened to impose peace. •The melee facilitated a prison break from Sorman, raising security concerns for an area with one of Libya's largest oil refineries and a key export terminal. •The episode also highlighted the GNU's weak control over fractious tribal leaders and armed factions. While the 52nd Brigade was successful in quelling this skirmish, it's a small force that can't remain effective if spread too thin; plus, its intervention did nothing to resolve the underlying disputes that sparked yesterday's clashes.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 July 2026 IRAN •U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) accused Iran of launching "an attempted surprise attack" on a U.S. military base in Jordan that punctured a brief pause in strikes that both sides had observed this week. •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia retaliated with strikes on the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, who Saudi and CENTCOM accuse of launching strikes on Saudi infrastructure this week. [Saudi's strikes exacerbated tensions with Iraq over Baghdad's failure to rein in Iranian proxy militias like the PMF, and Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi cancelled a planned visit to Riyadh over the spat.] •Iran also doused hopes for stability in the Strait of Hormuz when it rejected Oman's proposal for jointly managing the chokepoint by assigning Iran and Oman each oversight over a lane of traffic passing through their territorial waters. Iran countered with a lopsided proposal that would leave it firmly in control of both lanes of traffic, and said the Strait would remain closed until Oman agreed to its proposal. •Iran's Navy enforced the Strait's closure once more when it "targeted and stopped" three oil tankers it accused of taking an "unsafe and illegal route" through the Strait (read: via Omani waters) . •Despite the resumption of fighting, Pres. Trump expressed optimism that ongoing "very deep talks with Iran" could soon lead to a peace agreement - but he also threatened "very strong military action" if talks collapse again. •Separately, Iran hanged two men convicted of killing police officers during widespread anti-regime protests in January. The public executions drew a rare backlash: videos showed demonstrators calling the executioners "shameless" and booing. Rights groups say the men - like other protesters Iran has sentenced to death in recent months - weren't given due process. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis claimed they targeted another Saudi tanker - the NCC Ghazal - in the Red Sea. •The Ghazal was at least the fourth Saudi ship the Houthis have targeted since announcing their blockade last week. They seem to be letting Chinese tankers carrying Saudi oil through, though. Reuters reported that Beijing interceded with Houthi leaders to secure a guarantee of safe passage for its tankers, and Chinese officials reportedly maintain a line of communication with Houthi commanders to clear each vessel's passage. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky met Pres. Trump at the White House yesterday. Zelensky likely sought Trump's support for reviving stalled efforts to engage Russia in peace talks - perhaps starting with a partial ceasefire in long-range airstrikes. GAZA •Israel's cabinet finally gave approval for the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to enter Gaza on Sunday. •The ISF will initially deploy up to 200 troops - lent from Kosovo, Albania, Morocco, and potentially Kazakhstan - with a mandate to start restoring basic services and aid distribution in areas that neither Israel nor Hamas control (though Israel says the ISF will operate "in full coordination" with its military). •The ISF's deployment is the principal security foundation for implementing the 20-point Gaza peace plan announced in October 2025, but Israel withheld approval for the ISF to get started because it wanted Hamas to agree to disarm first. The Israeli cabinet seemed to relax that demand earlier this month, after Morocco became the first Arab country to commit troops to the ISF.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 July 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said there have been "very friendly negotiations going on" with Iran during the lull in fighting that he announced on Sunday to allow for talks, but Iran - as usual - denied that any direct talks were taking place. There are probably some backchannel or indirect dealings taking place. • Iran has also used the reprieve to hold talks with Oman. Several rounds of bilateral negotiations produced a new Omani proposal for controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. •Under Oman's proposal, Oman, Iran, and other members of a regional consortium would collect a "voluntary service fee" for providing "security" to vessels transiting any of three proposed shipping lanes: two through Iranian and Omani territorial waters that are already seeing slow traffic, plus an international lane in the middle that would reopen after Iran removes the mines it planted there. •Some analysts say the Omani proposal resembles how the Strait of Malacca is jointly managed by Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia. There, ships voluntarily pay for services they use. But there are some key differences between Malacca and Hormuz that will make Hormuz harder to manage with that model. •For one, Malacca is a much busier chokepoint and ships are more likely to need - and be willing to pay for - navigational guidance and emergency services. By contrast, the biggest risk in Hormuz is the belligerence of one of its proposed guardians, who is now angling to extort fees for refraining from attacking vessels under its protection. [The NYT had an excellent analysis comparing the two chokepoints earlier this month; you can read it here (https://t.co/MQYv50XoYT).] •Iran has not yet agreed to the Omani proposal and will likely bristle at the idea of assuming responsibility for de-mining the middle lane, but its negotiators are reportedly engaging flexibly in talks. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis are eyeing Iran's success in using its control of the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions, and - in the words of Yemen's Foreign Minister - "want to copy the Iranian model" in the Red Sea. •They're likely further emboldened by the lack of consequences Iran has faced for its aggression in Hormuz, and by Pres. Trump's warning that he would hold Iran - not its Houthi proxies - responsible for future Houthi strikes on ships in the Red Sea. •Meanwhile on land, Houthi forces are mobilizing in areas they control ahead of what could be a return to full-scale war. Houthi and government forces are already engaging in relatively minor skirmishes along a long-frozen front line in Dhale in the south west. •Analysts suggest the Houthis might struggle more in a new round of fighting, now that the government side is better organized and enjoys stronger backing from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and UK. That could cause them to think twice about re-engaging in war. TURKEY •Ozgur Ozel - the deposed leader of Turkey's longstanding opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) - launched a new party appropriately called the New Party (YP). •Ozel's frustrations with the CHP resonated with many other CHP parliamentarians, and over 90 of them defected from the CHP to join Ozel in the YP. With their defections, the YP surpassed the CHP to become the largest opposition party in parliament within only a week of its conception. •The YP must now quickly organize a national congress and provincial party offices in at least half of Turkey's 81 provinces if it wants to contest the next presidential election, which could take place next year. •Pres. Erdogan won't be pleased to have a new challenger, and will likely seek ways to stymie the YP's momentum. The CHP can attest to that: its presidential candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, is imprisoned on spurious charges. HAITI •Haiti's electoral council announced plans to hold presidential and legislative elections on December 13, with a presidential runoff scheduled for Feb. 21, 2027 if no candidate secures a majority - which seems likely, given that 300 political parties plan to field a candidate in the first round. •Many Haiti watchers are skeptical that the first round will take place before year's end. Gangs still influence much of Haiti including part of the capital. The UN recently warned that thugs are trying to "capture the systems of government." •Separately, roughly 330,000 Haitians in the U.S. lost their Temporary Protected Status yesterday, and the Trump administration plans to start deporting them back to Haiti on weekly flights to Cap Hatien in the north, where gangs don't have a strong presence. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim government said it would start talks with the opposition on Saturday. •But those talks already seem doomed to fail. The opposition's exiled leader, Maria Corina Machado, said she wouldn't participate because her coalition was left out of the planning phase, insinuating that the dialogue mechanism the government planned would be slanted in its favor. Analysts outside of Venezuela agree: one said the talks are "largely a staged process." •The process faces criticism from the other side, too. Hardliners within the government see it as an imposition the U.S. forced upon pliant interim president Delcy Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor and installing her in his place. •Pugnacious Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello reassured hardliners that government negotiators wouldn't give the opposition an inch: "dialogue doesn’t mean capitulation."
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •The UK's King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a state visit to the U.S. this week. The most consequential part of their tour will be Charles's meeting with Pres. Trump and his address to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday. In both, he'll aim to repair the strained "special relationship" between the U.S. and UK. •The UN begins its five-yearly Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference this week in Geneva, but it's hard to see why they bother: no review since 2010 has led to an agreed outcome. •Friday is May Day or Workers' Day - except in the U.S. and Canada, where workers are celebrated in September. •Central bankers in the U.S., UK, EU, and several other countries will all announce interest rate decisions this week. Investors expect all except perhaps Japan to keep rates flat. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,591/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,645/ton •Bitcoin: $77,629 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,310/ton •Ethereum: $2,319 •Gold: $4,710/toz •Lead: $1,963/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.51/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $96.16/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton MALI •Jihadists from the al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces with the Tuareg separatist-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to launch a wave of attacks across Mali that captured several towns and killed the junta's defense minister, Gen. Sadio Camara. •The FLA reportedly led the attacks on Gao and Kidal in the north - where they seek to carve out an independent ethnic Tuareg state - while JNIM led attacks on Bamako and central cities like Sevare and Mopti. •A separate prong of their joint assault targeted the head of the junta, Gen. Assimi Goita, but Goita was moved to a secure location where he survived unscathed. •The FLA reportedly bested Russian mercenaries in Kidal and took control of the city after the Russians agreed to withdraw. The FLA then called on Russia to "reconsider its support for the military junta" and leave Mali altogether, accusing the Russians of having "contributed to the suffering of the civilian population." •While JNIM and the FLA share a mutual loathing for the junta-led government in Bamako, this is the first time they've teamed up on a vast, coordinated attack or jointly called for Russia's departure. •It's not clear what their end game is or whether they agree on a shared objective. The FLA wants Tuareg independence, while the JNIM wants to become a political entity and impose sharia law throughout Mali. If they do succeed in bringing down the junta-led government they both revile - which seems unlikely - they would be awkward co-rulers. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are in no hurry to start a second round of direct peace talks, but both are reportedly engaging indirectly through Pakistani and Omani mediators. •While they stall, the war is costing the U.S. almost $1 billion per day. •Iran, meanwhile, is devising ways to profit from its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman yesterday to seek Muscat's help in setting up a new tolling system for the Strait. Oman - which prides itself on being a "friend to all" - will likely politely decline to participate. ISRAEL •Former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced plans to merge their parties - Bennett's right-leaning Bennett 2026 and Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid - into a combined entity aptly named Yachad ("together," in Hebrew) to try to unseat Prime Minister Netanyahu in elections expected later this year. •There's a fair chance they could succeed: it was a Bennett-Lapid partnership that temporarily ousted Netanyahu in 2021, and Netanyahu's motley coalition is more fragile now than it was then. DEFENSE SPENDING •The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published its annual report on global defense spending today, with a headline that total worldwide military expenditure grew for an 11th straight year to $2.89 trillion. •Just over half of that - $1.48 trillion - came from the top three spenders: the U.S., China, and Russia. U.S. spending actually declined slightly, but Europe's 14% increase made up for the U.S. decrease. •You can read more here: https://t.co/qWV5aVJhgm. SPORT •Kenyan runner Sabastian Sawe became the first person to run a sub-two hour legal marathon when he set a new world record - 1h59m30s - at yesterday's London Marathon. •It was a fast race: the second-place finisher - Ethiopia's Yomif Kejelcha - also finished in under two hours, and the women's winner - Tigst Assefa, also of Ethiopia - broke her own women's world record with a time of 2h15m41s.
Open source reportA Venezuelan energy-contract review and removals from China’s national legislature.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 June 2025 IRAN •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed new terms for a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this proposal, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to levels used for nuclear power plants (around 3%) - but not to weapons grade levels - while the U.S., Iran, and other countries flesh out a more detailed long-term agreement. •The NYT said Witkoff's proposal "would amount to a bridge between the current situation, in which Iran is rapidly producing near-bomb-grade uranium, and the U.S.’s goal: no uranium enrichment at all on Iranian soil." [Instead, Iran could partner with Oman or Saudi Arabia in a closely-monitored consortium carrying out enrichment.] •Iran said it would respond in the coming days. UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians. •CSIS also noted that Russia's forward progress has stagnated at just ~165 feet (50 meters) per day in some places along the front. That's slower than the grueling UK / French advance in WWI's Battle of the Somme. •Separately, Pres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%." •Drapatyi faced criticism for a devastating Russian strike on a military training ground that killed 12 on June 1 and had offered to resign over it, but then he partly redeemed himself by leading the effort to stabilize the front lines in Pokrovsk, Donetsk in the ensuing days. SYRIA •Militants fired rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights for the first time in a year yesterday. •Israel quickly blamed Syria's new government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa - who Israeli Defense Minister Katz said would be held "directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel" - and retaliated with artillery fire on the source of the rockets, as well as a series of airstrikes targeting what it said were government weapons. •Eager to avoid fresh conflict, Syria's Foreign Ministry vehemently denied involvement: "Syria has never been and will never be a threat to anyone in the region." TRADE •U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% today. Pres. Trump said the doubled rate is designed to protect domestic producers from competition from cheaper foreign rivals: "At 25%, [foreign producers] can sort of get over that fence. At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence." •The White House also sent U.S. trading partners letters yesterday "to give them a friendly reminder that the deadline is coming up" (as press secretary Karoline Leavitt put it) to strike a deal avoiding new tariffs. OTHER NEWS •As anticipated, the European Central Bank confirmed Bulgaria's accession to the euro today. Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov celebrated the event as "a remarkable day," but some traditionalists protested against a change that they fear will raise prices and erode national identity.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update Jan 7 North Korea •North Korean state media celebrated yesterday's test-launch with its usual bombastic rhetoric: the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim Jong Un "personally oversaw" the successful test of a new type of intermediate range hypersonic ballistic missile intended to "reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region." •Though KCNA quoted Kim's reassurance that "this is clearly a plan and effort for self-defence, not an offensive plan and action," the launch was clearly timed to sow fear during U.S. SecState Blinken's visit to South Korea. China •Taiwan detected damage to an undersea internet cable and blamed a ship linked to China. Taiwan quickly restored communications through other channels, but the incident served as a reminder that China's threats loom large over the island's infrastructure. Guantanamo •The U.S. transferred 11 Yemeni detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman, where they'll be resettled. •That leaves 15 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo. Three of the 15 are eligible for transfer but - like the Yemenis - come from unstable countries they can't be transferred back to (Somalia, Libya, and Stateless Rohingya Myanmar); the rest are being held indefinitely because they've been convicted / charged or are otherwise ineligible for transfer. Syria •After consultations with Syria's new leadership, the U.S. Treasury Department eased some restrictions on humanitarian aid transfers into the country. •Sanctions remain in place - meaning that weapons and military gear are still prohibited - but NGOs now have a little more leeway to provide basic services like healthcare and sanitation. Other News •As anticipated, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau tendered his resignation. His Liberal Party will now choose a successor to take his place until a new general election that the strengthening Conservative Party looks likely to win. •The BRICS group of emerging economies formally approved Indonesia's entry to their ranks. •Happy Birthday Joanie!
Open source report